🏈 Auburn has a 99.9% chance to win with 0:43 left!

[rick4bama]

 

[Justneedme81]

Lost on bad defensive call.

 

[Crimson&WhiteGecko]

Bama' sent 5 WR's, AU had two pressure & another spy Milroe leaving 8 guys to cover 5 & all they had to do was knock the ball down. And the DB covering Bond had 3 PBU during the game

Those odds are far better than pressuring Milroe with more.

I thought it was a fantastic read, hell of a throw that was accurate as hell & got there fast at the exact right time. Then Bond had great technique. The rest is history because that sequence between QB & WR against 8 other DB's... Hell of a play.

 

[Secondand26]

Bama' sent 5 WR's, AU had two pressure & another spy Milroe leaving 8 guys to cover 5 & all they had to do was knock the ball down. And the DB covering Bond had 3 PBU during the game

Those odds are far better than pressuring Milroe with more.

I thought it was a fantastic read, hell of a throw that was accurate as hell & got there fast at the exact right time. Then Bond had great technique. The rest is history because that sequence between QB & WR against 8 other DB's... Hell of a play.

This. I re-watched (a couple of times lol!) - Milroe threw it exactly where he intended to throw it! Perfect placement.

 

[Brandon Van de Graaff]

Those win probabilities are as bad as the ESPN FPI stuff. 99.9... That's basically saying that Alabama had a 1 out of 1000 chance at scoring a TD on that 4th down play... It was probably more like 1 in 40, at worst. Still extremely bad chances considering auburn was going to get the ball back with a chance of their own, but not 99.9% bad.

 

[BamaFan334]

Those win probabilities are as bad as the ESPN FPI stuff. 99.9... That's basically saying that Alabama had a 1 out of 1000 chance at scoring a TD on that 4th down play... It was probably more like 1 in 40, at worst. Still extremely bad chances considering auburn was going to get the ball back with a chance of their own, but not 99.9% bad.

I highly doubt 1 in 40 we can make that work. He had to throw that ball about 35-40 yards in a perfect spot and with 8 on 5, I just think it's more of a 1-100 shot to be honest. Even throwing it up for grabs isn't a 1-40 thing in my mind.

 

[Justneedme81]

This. I re-watched (a couple of times lol!) - Milroe threw it exactly where he intended to throw it! Perfect placement.

His deep ball has been accurate all year long. What's even interesting is that Bond wasn't the right read.

 

[Brandon Van de Graaff]

I highly doubt 1 in 40 we can make that work. He had to throw that ball about 35-40 yards in a perfect spot and with 8 on 5, I just think it's more of a 1-100 shot to be honest. Even throwing it up for grabs isn't a 1-40 thing in my mind.

1 out a 100 is still 10X more often than 99.9%...

Not a big deal either way, I just rarely pass up taking a shot at ESPN and the stupid sensationalism that they overflow with.

 

[BamaFan334]

1 out a 100 is still 10X more often than 99.9%...

Not a big deal either way, I just rarely pass up taking a shot at ESPN and the stupid sensationalism that they overflow with.

I agree. It was unreal and I like thinking we broke their hearts with something that was astronomically in their favor at the time. It was simply unreal. I can't wait for more videos of it being poated from around the stadium and in Alabama bars and homes.

Someone please post what they see on here since I'm not on X and TikTok. Would love seeing it.

We were all in our master bedroom as we just got home from our Turkey Bowl and we saw the last five minutes. Kids jumping off the bed, I was spinning in circles, wife just holding her hands over her face, dogs didn't know what the hell happened so they started fighting each other. Total chaos in our bedroom, ha ha.

 

[Crimson&WhiteGecko]

I agree. It was unreal and I like thinking we broke their hearts with something that was astronomically in their favor at the time. It was simply unreal. I can't wait for more videos of it being poated from around the stadium and in Alabama bars and homes.

Someone please post what they see on here since I'm not on X and TikTok. Would love seeing it.

We were all in our master bedroom as we just got home from our Turkey Bowl and we saw the last five minutes. Kids jumping off the bed, I was spinning in circles, wife just holding her hands over her face, dogs didn't know what the hell happened so they started fighting each other. Total chaos in our bedroom, ha ha.

My dogs where like... "This mofo done lost his $#!+ (head tilt)"

 

['65 Cobra]

His deep ball has been accurate all year long. What's even interesting is that Bond wasn't the right read.

I disagree. Bond was the only in single coverage. That's the guy to throw to. Jalen was flawless on that play.

 

[Justneedme81]

I disagree. Bond was the only in single coverage. That's the guy to throw to. Jalen was flawless on that play.

If you listen to the player interviewa.... They said Jalen didn't have right read but he did make the right decision there's a difference ya do know

 

[mando]

I disagree. Bond was the only in single coverage. That's the guy to throw to. Jalen was flawless on that play.

On the replay you see the Barn double covered the inside receivers (3 receivers * 2 = 6 DB's) and single coverage on the two outside receivers (2 more DB's so total of 8 in coverage). Milroe threw to one of the single covered recievers. Not sure who the other was but I think it may have been RB #5. If that is the case he indeed made the right decision. The DB had IB covered up when Milroe release the ball. Throew it on the outside so bonds would go get it. Not sure the DB ever saw the ball. 50/50 ball that went the good guys way. Also if I am going to throw it to anyone, #17 is one of those that would be on my short list.

 

[Justneedme81]

On the replay you see the Barn double covered the inside receivers (3 receivers * 2 = 6 DB's) and single coverage on the two outside receivers (2 more DB's so total of 8 in coverage). Milroe threw to one of the single covered recievers. Not sure who the other was but I think it may have been RB #5. If that is the case he indeed made the right decision. The DB had IB covered up when Milroe release the ball. Throew it on the outside so bonds would go get it. Not sure the DB ever saw the ball. 50/50 ball that went the good guys way. Also if I am going to throw it to anyone, #17 is one of those that would be on my short list.

Watch this one:

I was wondering why #5 was on the field for that play...

 

[Justneedme81]

Anyone see Auburn players clapping their hands on that fumble snap?

 

[mando]

Watch this one:

I was wondering why #5 was on the field for that play...

If you slow motion it through you can see that Milroe threw to a spot to his left, IB's right. He had the DB with his back to him so he could not make a play on the ball if thrown. He threw him open because when he threw it he was not open but there was space that he threw to. No idea if that is what he was thinking but it lined up and Milroe hit the only spot he could hit to complete the pass. The outside receiver on the right side was also open but the DB did not have his back turned to Milroe. Also Milroe was not looking that way so I guess it did not matter that he was open.

Single coverage, DB with his back to the QB, a little space in the corner, Milroe making a perfect throw and IB making a great catch. That is all that had to happen for this pass to be completed .

 

[Justneedme81]

If you slow motion it through you can see that Milroe threw to a spot to his left, IB's right. He had the DB with his back to him so he could not make a play on the ball if thrown. He threw him open because when he threw it he was not open but there was space that he threw to. No idea if that is what he was thinking but it lined up and Milroe hit the only spot he could hit to complete the pass. The outside receiver on the right side was also open but the DB did not have his back turned to Milroe. Also Milroe was not looking that way so I guess it did not matter that he was open.

Single coverage, DB with his back to the QB, a little space in the corner, Milroe making a perfect throw and IB making a great catch. That is all that had to happen for this pass to be completed .

Yes sir. I see it

 

[Justneedme81]

Better view

 

[SnakeDoc]

1 out a 100 is still 10X more often than 99.9%...

Not a big deal either way, I just rarely pass up taking a shot at ESPN and the stupid sensationalism that they overflow with.

The math nerd in me would love to know that actual percentage of that play being successful.

 

[Brandon Van de Graaff]

The math nerd in me would love to know that actual percentage of that play being successful.

It would still just be a best guess estimation... just way too many variables in that situation. That's why a lot (not all) of the "analytics" stuff teams use (or claim to) is bullshit. Often times, they just serve as a convenient scapegoat for when the coach does what he wants to do and it doesn't work (see: Lane Kiffin).