🏈 another point of view. what do the stats show?

[pop]

Team____________Result__scor_off/def
UTAH vs
Michigan________W 25-23 97th__81st
UNLV____________W 42-21 60th__101st
@ Utah St.______W 58-10 74th__107th
@ Air Force_____W 30-23 53rd__35th
Weber St._______W 37-21 NR____NR
24 Oregon St.___W 31-28 26th__61st
Wyoming_________W 40-7 119th_78th
Colorado St.____W 49-16 76th__89th
@ New Mexico____W 13-10 94th__105th
11 TCU__________W 13-10 20th__2nd
San Diego St.___W 63-14 105th_114th
17 Brigham YoungW 48-24 19th__34th
avg rank________________67.5__73.3

Alabama vs
Clemson_________W 34-10__61st__10th
Tulane__________W 20-6___113th_106th
Western Ky._____W 41-7___110th_71st
Arkansas________W 49-14__91st__93rd
16 Georgia______W 41-30__29th__64th
Kentucky________W 17-14__87th__40th
20 Mississippi__W 24-20__32nd__14th
Tennessee_______W 29-9___111th_11th
Arkansas St.____W 35-0___52nd__52nd
LSU_____________W 27-21__34th__65th
Mississippi St._W 32-7___116th_58th
Auburn__________W 36-0___111th_18th
1 Florida_______L 21-30__3rd___5th
avg rank_________________68.5__46.7

Alabama has only faced one offense in the top25. They gave up 30pts in that contest losing by 9pts to florida. The next closest was georgia at 29th again giving up 30pts.
Alabama has faced 5 top 25 defenses (florida, auburn, tenn, miss, and clemson), scoring 21, 36, 29, 24, and 34.

Utah has faced 2 teams in the top 20 in scoring (Y and TCU). giving up 10 and 24 pts respectively. Utah has faced only one team in the top25 in def. TCU. Which we scored 13pts.

Statistically speaking the defenses alabama faced were more difficult. But the offenses the two teams played against were quite similar. 'bama has really only been tested once by a statistically proficient offense. Utah's offense is the 15th best scoring offense at 37.4pts/game. Right between georgia and florida at 29th and 3rd, both teams put up 30 on 'bama. Its likely that this number is biased upwards because there is difference in quality of defenses we faced. So offensively we may be slightly worse than the stats show. However, the only other teams that had an offense ranked above 35th were miss and LSU who score 20, 21 resp. We are worse than florida, and I would argue similar to georgia, but better than miss and lsu. So I expect our results to be similar. No way we score less than 20 and no more than 30.

Bama's offense scored 28.8pts/game against teams in the top 25 in def. We are ranked 12th in scoring def. right between clemson and miss, who allowed 34, 24 respectively.

This is where the big question mark in my mind is. I believe 'bamas D will give us 20-30pts. But can we hold their offense to less than that. So I went digging a little deeper. 'bama makes no secret about being a power running team. So I thought why not break down the best defenses they faced by run d. and see where we fall to get a better sense of how we will fair in this game. They faced the number 6 miss, 12 tenn, 16 flor, 17 lsu, and 28th ark st. ranked def. Against those defenses they averaged 27.2 pts/game. Rushing for an average of 178.6yds/game. We fall between tenn/flor at 14th. We give up 104yds/game on average. in those two games 'bama scored 21, and 29. Avg. 25pts/game. So I would expect them to score on average from 23-27pts against a defense like ours.

If alabama comes in and expects to run all over us, there aren't many facts to back that idea up. We played against an almost identical set of offenses. So are defensive numbers should give a good idea of how we will fair against their offense. Our defense is well tested and will certainly face a challenge, and on average we will allow 25-27pts. Our offense has not been tested like 'bamas, so the statistics may be biased upwards. But against similar offenses as ours is they give up between 20-30pts. Which we are certainly capable of.

In conclusion, on an AVERAGE outing by both teams it will come down to the wire. We all know how good the wire has been to utah this year, and I expect the same in this game.
UTAH 30- alabama 24.

Just my take on the game, and what the two teams have really accomplished this year based on the numbers. Either way I expect it to be a great game. Feel free to disagree, but i hope the level of discourse can be based on the facts at hand not speculative assumptions.

GO UTES!!!

 

[TerryP]

...and here comes Big... :lol:

Do you really know what can of worms you just opened?

 

[planomateo]

curious, are your off/def stats now or when the games were played...

EDIT --> nevermind, apparently you are looking at stats at the end of the year versus when the games were actually played...

 

[pop]

after the season was completed. I think taking the stats for the year make for a better comparison overall.

 

[SkinyUte]

...and here comes Big... :lol:

Do you really know what can of worms you just opened?

LOL, when pop posted this on Utefans, my first thought was, "I can hear Big_Fan furiously typing up his reply as we speak.".

I gave a good idea of what his retort will boil down to, but will wait to see if I'm right.

 

[TerryP]

...and here comes Big... :lol:

Do you really know what can of worms you just opened?

LOL, when pop posted this on Utefans, my first thought was, "I can hear Big_Fan furiously typing up his reply as we speak.".

I gave a good idea of what his retort will boil down to, but will wait to see if I'm right.

He's at church today so I don't know when he'll get to it. I've called him and let him know it was posted.

I hate to admit this...but, this is going to be the "stat of history thread," and it's going to be fun to watch.

I KNOW what his response is going to be. I don't know the numbers, but I know where it's going. ^^POP

 

[TerryP]

I've seen a small portion of his preview for the game...we'll have it up on the blog in the next week...it very well may not sit well with you guys.

 

[SkinyUte]

I've seen a small portion of his preview for the game...we'll have it up on the blog in the next week...it very well may not sit well with you guys.

Meh, we're used to it by now. We already know that on paper we lose the game by 20, so there's probably not much he's going to say that will surprise any of us. Besides, we've been hearing it from the ESPN talking heads ever since the bowl matchups were announced.

 

[SkinyUte]

I KNOW what his response is going to be. I don't know the numbers, but I know where it's going.

Actually, I'll go ahead and call my shot: All the stats for Utah are invalid due to a) inflated rankings from playing against some bad MWC teams, and/or b) not playing against SEC teams.

Does that about sum it up?

 

[NTT]

When you said you played against similar sets. Did you play against an offensive line that averged 40lbs over any defensive lineman you have? Or an offensive line that consist of 2 all-americans 1 of them going to be a top 10 nfl pick? Stats are always inflated when you play questionalbe teams and stats are deflated when you play top teams. I am sorry but, if TCU and BYU are the standards you hold yourselves to then you are going to be shocked.

 

[cjaytch]

I have heard it said several times that the most Alabama-like defense that Utah faced this year is TCU. Making that comparison, shouldnt you expect Utah to score more like 13?

If Utahs D is similar to UF and Ole Miss, wouldnt that put Bama at the 21-24 range?


I think you're going to find that while the statistics are similar, the personnel are not. Especially the 2nd and third string. Can any Ute truly say that they have faced an Offensive line like Bama's?

Also, having watched the Bama D, do you really think TCU's is as good? Especially against the run. No offence, but while the statistics might suggest that Utahs O is in the range of UF or UGA, I disagree. Does Utah have a Matt Stafford? AJ Green? Tim Tebow? Percy Harvin? Jeff Demps? Knowshown Moreno? The 2 offences who put up 30 pts on Bama are LOADED with some of the very best athletes in Div1.

 

[TerryP]

I KNOW what his response is going to be. I don't know the numbers, but I know where it's going.

Actually, I'll go ahead and call my shot: All the stats for Utah are invalid due to a) inflated rankings from playing against some bad MWC teams, and/or b) not playing against SEC teams.

Does that about sum it up?

You can see where the thread is heading...

I think I have a pretty good grasp on where this game is going. Right now, the mistakes I see are coming from your back 7.

 

[Guest]

...and here comes Big... :lol:

Do you really know what can of worms you just opened?

LOL, when pop posted this on Utefans, my first thought was, "I can hear Big_Fan furiously typing up his reply as we speak.".

I gave a good idea of what his retort will boil down to, but will wait to see if I'm right.

It does not take rocket science to know what my reply will be. Part of the Trickle Down analysis I do for every game involves not only breaking down the results of each team you have played, but carrying it out to the third level.

Needless to say...his single level analysis is seriously flawed.

I mean...Hoover High School in Hoover Alabama has a better defense and offense than anyone Utah has played - statistically speaking. Never mind that they are a high school team playing in a high school league, against high school teams...and that same logic applies when comparing Utah opponents to Alabama.

For the sake of brevity, I am simply going to dismantle the best card in your house of cards. I could demolish the entire deck, but I simply do not have time right now.

TCU is the most statistically impressive team in your hand. They rank #20 in scoring offense, and #2 in scoring defense.

Here is the problem...

They are Hoover High school.

Their statistics are compiled - by and large -against teams that would lose to half the teams in Alabama 4A High School ball. Less than half the teams in the MWC have a winning record against 1A competition, and TCU's out of conference teams were either (1) FCS (2) PAC10 bottom feeder (3) SMU (4) Waxed them.

Additionally, the second level competition is sometimes so bad, that even THAT is misleading. Take New Mexico for instance. They rank #46 in TOTAL DEFENSE. Compare them to Arkansas, who ranks #73 in total defense. New Mexico is better, right? WRONG. They SUCK. Common opponent - Tulsa. Tulsa HAMMERED New Mexico 56-14. Arkansas beat Tulsa 30-23. While you cannot always play 6 degrees of separation with college football, blowout scores and mismatches are safe bets. Tulsa demolished New Mexico, proving that statistics formed against cupcakes mean less than statistics forged against real opposition.

Statistical comparison is only relevant when comparing similar competition. Taken as a broad, all-inclusive whole, it is nothing more than lies.

Here is the statistical compilation

TCU #20 Offense

Defensive Rankings by opponent:

46 New Mexico
109! in FCS Stephen F. Austin (that will run up some stats! I will weight them 209 - perhaps too high)
75 Stanford
118 SMU
65 OU
112 SDSU
96 CSU
60 BYU
40 Wyoming
103 UNLV
18 Utah
45 USAF

That means the mean defense by which TCU forged their #20 total offense, was 82 - and even that is likely inflated when you consider the ranking of teams like USAF. Air Force's offense is so one dimensional that anyone capable of shutting them down is capable of blowing them out. Those MWC teams only had as high of ranking as they did because they played each other and a few FCS opponents, and that padded stats.

Offensively:

80 New Mexico
13 in FCS Stephen F. Austin ( I will weight that 80)
98 SMU
3 OU
99 SDSU
40 CSU
17 BYU
108 Wyoming
73 UNLV
31 Utah
70 USAF

So the average offense played in somewhat better at 58 - however up against the terrible defenses in conference and FCS, I would have thought it would have been higher than it was. When you see that #20 offense run up against a *decent* defense in Oklahoma, it got shut down. OU has given up over 25 points 7 times on the season, yet TCU was held to 10. BYU is 17 ranked offensively, but their schedule was populated with some of the worst defenses EVER.

Comparatively, the best team on Alabama's schedule (Total offense & defense) was Florida. You are welcome to research where their stats were in comparison to TCU. Down the line, every team on Alabama's schedule played a tougher schedule than the opponents of Utah.

In the end, comments like :"If alabama comes in and expects to run all over us, there aren't many facts to back that idea up. We played against an almost identical set of offenses." are beyond stupid.

Alabama will bring in an offensive line that features two first round draft choices and a probable 3rd. The backup OL at Alabama will be better than any OL you have faced. The RB tandem of Coffee and Ingram will be better than any you have faced, and the passing threat will be very, very real. Sean Smith may be decent, but Julio Jones could start on Sunday...right now. There is a reason he was named national freshman of the year by the Columbus Touchdown Club. Quite frankly, you don't have more than two players on your three deep on offense who would crack the two deep on Alabama's offense. Utah will not be able to stop Alabama from running the ball. Period. Bama may hit 200 yards rushing by HALF TIME. I don't CARE That nobody has done it to you this year. This Alabama team has too much size, strength, and speed on the OL for those midgets you have playing defense to handle.

Defensively, Alabama will line up and you will not have a middle to run to. I read comments on Utefans talking about Cody being fat and slow...buddy, you folks are smoking some mountain weed. Every fan base this season has said similar things...and every team this season has been unable to run the ball consistently, with the exception of LSU, who actually has an OL bigger than Cody - and Cody was coming off of a sprained knee. The comments that Cody will tire because of the no huddle are misguided. The no-huddle wil KILL your own defense. If you go no-huddle, you will punt faster and put them back on the field against that meat grinder we call an offensive line. It will get ugly in a HURRY.

Honestly, the difference in talent level between our two teams is astronomical.

The team that Utah most reminds me of in the SEC is not Florida...it is Arkansas...and that is really bad for you. While Arkansas finished the season with wins over Tulsa and LSU, we dropped 34 on them in the first half. Their small & fast defensive front had no answer for our offense. Yours won't either.

Oh...as for comments that you will substituted 2nd and 3rd stringers on the OL who are bigger...I hope you do. There is a reason they are playing 2nd and 3rd string on a MWC team.

If Alabama plays its worst game of the year and Utah its best, it could be hairy.

If both teams have an average outing, Bama wins by 21.

If Bama plays well - it won't matter what you do, we win by 30+.

By halftime, there will be a lot of Utah fans doing the facepalm.

 

[TerryP]

See what I mean...

Hoover High School...didn't expect that.

 

[SkinyUte]

Yep, I was right. What do I win?

Additionally, the second level competition is sometimes so bad, that even THAT is misleading. Take New Mexico for instance. They rank #46 in TOTAL DEFENSE. Compare them to Arkansas, who ranks #73 in total defense. New Mexico is better, right? WRONG. They SUCK. Common opponent - Tulsa. Tulsa HAMMERED New Mexico 56-14. Arkansas beat Tulsa 30-23. While you cannot always play 6 degrees of separation with college football, blowout scores and mismatches are safe bets. Tulsa demolished New Mexico, proving that statistics formed against cupcakes mean less than statistics forged against real opposition.

I'm not going to bother debating your stats (there's nothing I could say that would chance anyone's mind), but this one bugs me a bit. You're going to compare a home win for Tulsa - in a game in which New Mexico lost their starting QB and best player for the season in the first half - to Arkansas' homecoming game? Seems like a bit of a stretch, but whatever floats your boat.

 

[TerryP]

Yep, I was right. What do I win?

Additionally, the second level competition is sometimes so bad, that even THAT is misleading. Take New Mexico for instance. They rank #46 in TOTAL DEFENSE. Compare them to Arkansas, who ranks #73 in total defense. New Mexico is better, right? WRONG. They SUCK. Common opponent - Tulsa. Tulsa HAMMERED New Mexico 56-14. Arkansas beat Tulsa 30-23. While you cannot always play 6 degrees of separation with college football, blowout scores and mismatches are safe bets. Tulsa demolished New Mexico, proving that statistics formed against cupcakes mean less than statistics forged against real opposition.

I'm not going to bother debating your stats (we all know where you stand), but this one bugs me a bit. You're going to compare a home win for Tulsa - in a game in which New Mexico lost their starting QB and best player for the season in the first half - to Arkansas' homecoming game? Seems like a bit of a stretch, but whatever floats your boat.

Vs the Wyoming vs UT comparisons?

 

[SkinyUte]

Yep, I was right. What do I win?

Additionally, the second level competition is sometimes so bad, that even THAT is misleading. Take New Mexico for instance. They rank #46 in TOTAL DEFENSE. Compare them to Arkansas, who ranks #73 in total defense. New Mexico is better, right? WRONG. They SUCK. Common opponent - Tulsa. Tulsa HAMMERED New Mexico 56-14. Arkansas beat Tulsa 30-23. While you cannot always play 6 degrees of separation with college football, blowout scores and mismatches are safe bets. Tulsa demolished New Mexico, proving that statistics formed against cupcakes mean less than statistics forged against real opposition.

I'm not going to bother debating your stats (we all know where you stand), but this one bugs me a bit. You're going to compare a home win for Tulsa - in a game in which New Mexico lost their starting QB and best player for the season in the first half - to Arkansas' homecoming game? Seems like a bit of a stretch, but whatever floats your boat.

Vs the Wyoming vs UT comparisons?

What, that both teams were playing with recently announced lame duck coaches?

 

[pop]

thanks for keeping the level of discourse high. Resorting to name calling would be amateurish and diminish the facts that we seek to achieve.

I'm going to argue that the idea of a difference in level of competition makes alabama the favorite by a blowout. The argument is that because we play weaker opponents our stats are invalid. That is the argument I hear that overrides the theme of this discussion. If that were true certain we should be able to make claims that hold up to that fact. Its difficult however to find significantly relevant material to test that claim, only 3 games have met the criteria to be analyzed. The claims are that the line should favor the team with a harder schedule from a harder conference, and the results will be above the odds line in favor of that team.

Lets start with Utah vs pitt 2004. utes favored by 21. never any question in anyones mind that this was a mismatch. no odds maker or reasonably intelligent person picked pitt. I leave the stats alone for this one. Pitt had a SOS of 66th. Utahs was 67th. The argument doesn't hold. A weaker schedule didn't predict the outcome correctly. zero for one, in the claim that a harder schedule makes the stats meaningless.

Next up. #5 BSU vs #7 oklahoma. The argument here was that BSU weak schedule meant they were not good enough to even keep up with ok. I mean come on, its oklahoma right? they face top 10 offenses week in and week out. BSU rating is inflated and so are their stats. That was the argument then, oklahoma was favored by 7-8.5pts in that game. SOS of ok was 32. BSU was 90th. outcome of the game BSU 43- ou 42. uh oh this isn't looking good. So why was oklahoma the favorite. There must be something that there were better at statistically that made odds makers think that it was worth 7 pts. Right? BSU 2nd in the nation scoring offense. OU 19th. Its inflated, irrelevant. dismissed off hand without data to support the claim. scoring def. will favor OU right? this has to make sense. Odds makers wouldn't drop a TD favorite line on a worse team. RIGHT? OU 19th, BSU 20th a difference of 0.4pts/game. Buts its irrelevant OU has to face harder opponents so really that stat is useless. What could possibly account for being a TD favorite but at very best being a statistical equal. It doesn't make sense. OU was favored by a TD because of their name and their conference, thats it. 7 pts for playing in a BCS conference and being in BCS bowl game. 0 for 2 in the claim. Its almost like this notion is turning out to be a fallacy, a logical inaccuracy not proven to be of use in this type of situation.

Well one more to go. This one has to make more sense. I'll keep my fingers crossed. #10 Hawaii vs. #4 Georgia. Betting line -22 for Georgia. SOS for Georgia 23rd. Hawaii's 132nd in sagarin. worst in the league. Here we go this one we will all feel better about. Hawaii scoring off/def- 1st/46th. Georgia 34th/18th. Ah thats better this one fits. The line was appropriate -22, a blowout for sure. And there it was Hawaii 10- geogia 41. Claim is 1 for 3.

This time around Utah SOS is 70. alabama 58. Definitely had harder competition. Utahs scoring off/def-15th/12th. Alabama off/def-30th/6th. But its all irrelevant. No questions.

The stats don't back up the 10pt line, and if history is correct you get 7pts added just for being from the SEC.

The claim that playing in a harder conference and your opponents having harder schedules is not an accurate predictor of the outcome of these games. It only predicts 1/3 of the BCS games featuring non-aq teams. Its a fallacy to make that argument. You make logical assumptions that aren't valid to discredit utah's wins, and then turn right around and use the same stats and fallacies to prove how Alabama is going to win by a blowout.

It wont happen. There is not a significant data set to compare the SEC to the MWC. "Trickle down" analyses increase their error with every analysis step. The closest opponent we have together is the TENN-WYO connection. Besides that there are no relevant MWC-SEC data points to prove your continued assertion that a harder schedule equals a blow out win.

 

[TerryP]

Welcome aboard pop.

 

[pop]

I don't see anything in your posts that proves your point that a harder schedule equals a blowout win. I can see you predicting a win, but all the evidence that is out there to compare these two teams points to a close game (less than 7point). Teams play at different levels of their potential during certain games, and against different opponents. So single game comparisons fall short every time. Saying our best win against TCU isn't valid because Bama lost to a better florida team, doesn't make any sense. Take a look at the season on the whole. How well did this team do against its direct opponents? and compare that to Utah? Thats the best data set that is out there on how these two teams will match up. To claim anything otherwise is making huge assumptions based on intangibles and heaped with biases.

How about this, we will make a claim. Alabama is a favorite because they outperformed utah in games against teams that finished in the AP top25. I haven't look at these stats as I write this post but I will look them up as I write.
_____Scoring Off/def__off Pass/rush__def pass/rush
Utah 3gms_____12/12th_____27/64th_______74/36th
bama 3gms_____15/25th_____54/40th_______51/17th

so for offense/defense stats only against top 25 teams utah's avg rank- 37.5. bama's 33.6.

Where in those numbers is a blowout such a certainty?
In any reasonable analysis it would be a close game. Not a 30 pt blowout you all seem so certain of, based on one very large assumption that because utah plays in a weaker conference its stats are invalid. Show me the first line data to support that claim. That a top team in the MWC wont compete with a top SEC team. Using well documented results and not relying on things that are unmeasurable. Where does the certainty come from?