🏈 Alabama's chances of making the CFP playoff

[MissingRing]

I’ve been thinking about certain scenarios that could unfold over the remainder of the college football season, wondering which of these scenarios, if any, would give Alabama a definite path to the CFB Playoff. I haven’t found one yet. At least I haven’t found one that doesn’t require an assumption of marked generosity by the selection committee toward the SEC.
Here are my thoughts:

1. The winner of the SEC Championship game gets a spot in the playoff. East champion, West champion, conference or overall record: doesn’t matter; the winner gets in, period.
2. The selection committee is likely to be faced on December 7th with a cluster of strong 1-loss teams representing multiple conferences, and one independent, Notre Dame.
3. Since there are 5 “Power Conferences” and only 4 playoff slots, one of the major conferences will be automatically excluded.
4. If statement #1 is true – and if the SEC Champion is not Alabama – then for Alabama to get a playoff spot, the committee would have to snub a second Power 5 Conference (and/or Notre Dame) in order to accommodate a second SEC team in the playoff.
5. For Alabama to win the West, the following must happen:
   1. Alabama wins out – this eliminates the Barn and Mississippi State.
   2. Ole Miss loses twice. If Ole Miss wins out, they are the West champion. If Ole Miss loses only one conference game, they still edge out Alabama by virtue of winning against Alabama in head-to-head competition.

So, my conclusion is that, to make the playoff, Alabama has to win out and hope for either selection committee generosity or some unlikely stumbling by Ole Miss. I welcome your comments!

 

[rocknthefreeworld]

Actually, you missed part of 5. It is possible for Bama, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State to tie in the West with one loss each which would bring out the three way tiebreaker (Ole MIss loses to Mississippi State who loses to Bama, all other games are wins for each team). In this case, it would automatically fall all the way to Section G, Combined SEC record of the team’s cross-divisional opponents. Ole Miss has Vanderbilt and Tennessee. Mississippi State has Vanderbilt and Kentucky. We have Florida and Tennessee. In that case, our best bet is for Vandy to be the worst team in the East, with Tennessee, Kentucky, and Florida ahead of them. That would remove Ole Miss from the tie-breaker since their opponents would be the worst record in the East, and then give Bama the tiebreaker over Mississippi State due to head-to-head competition.

Basically, win out and hope Mississippi State beats everyone else but us.

 

[Crimson&WhiteGecko]

^This

 

[Bamabww]

@rocknthefreeworld, I've been trying to figure out how we could do it and wasn't smart enough. Thanks for that scenario.