🏈 AL.com All-Access: 5 bold SEC football predictions for 2016

[Creg Stephenson |]

1. Tennessee will beat Alabama for the first time in a decade

It's no surprise to regular readers I've been high on this year's Volunteers for some time. Tennessee returns 18 starters, including a potentially dynamic quarterback in Joshua Dobbs, from a team that lost four games by a total of 16 points last year. The Vols will no doubt have Oct. 15 vs. the Crimson Tide circled on their calendar, and this is the year they finally get over the hump. It's been a while. The last time Tennessee beat Alabama (2006), Mike Shula and Phillip Fulmer were the two head coaches. But unless the still-unresolved off-field controversy engulfs Butch Jones at some point (and there's no evidence thus far that it will), this will be a memorable year in Knoxville.

2. There will be 2 (and possibly 3) SEC coaching changes by season's end

We had three SEC coaching changes last season, though two were retirements by veteran coaches nearing the end of the line (South Carolina's Steve Spurrier and Missouri's Gary Pinkel). Only Georgia's Mark Richt was dismissed for performance-related issues. We might see multiple firings this year, though I believe LSU's Les Miles is safe for now. Unless Texas A&M jumps back into contention this season (highly unlikely given the chaos that continues to swirlaround that program), Kevin Sumlin is almost certainly cooked. So that's one. I don't have any faith in Mark Stoops' ability to avoid another late-season collapse at Kentucky. There's two. The third? You'll have to read on to find out.

3. Vanderbilt will finish ahead of at least two teams in the SEC East

Though it didn't necessarily show up in their record, the Commodores were vastly improved in their second season under Derek Mason. In a not-unrelated note, Mason — a well-respected former defensive coordinator at Stanford — took over control of the Vandy defense in 2015. The Commodores have 16 returning starters, most in the SEC after LSU and Tennessee. A rugged (for Vanderbilt) road schedule — including games at Kentucky, Western Kentucky, Georgia Tech, Auburn and Missouri — will keep the Commodores from finishing with a winning record, but they will be far from the worst team in the league. South Carolina and Missouri, and possibly Kentucky, are all in worse shape going into this season than is Vanderbilt.

4. Alabama's defense will be better than it was in 2015

It's almost counter-intuitive, given that the Crimson Tide loses quite a bit of depth with the departure of A'Shawn Robinson, Jarran Reed, Reggie Ragland, Cyrus Jones and even D.J. Pettway. However, Alabama got a big boost when Jonathan Allen and Tim Williams opted not to enter the NFL draft. Those two, along with Ryan Anderson, Da'Shawn Hand, Rashaan Evans and Reuben Foster, give the Crimson Tide what should be another fantastic front seven. The secondary should be just as good again, if not better. Alabama had to replace two defensive coaches (Kirby Smart and Mel Tucker) after the season and unexpectedly had to do so with another (Bo Davis) just last week. But assuming Karl Dunbar in fact the hireon the defensive line, all three new faces have experience in Saban's system. The transition should be relatively seamless.

5. Auburn will post its second straight losing SEC record

The Tigers improved toward the end of the year last season; that's pretty much indisputable. And to their credit, they did not quit after a disastrous early-season slide. Trouble is, Auburn still has no answer at quarterback and did not upgrade after changes on the defensive coaching staff. Picking up Vanderbilt on the SEC schedule helps, though Texas A&M and Mississippi State are the only other likely wins on the Tigers' conference slate. LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama are almost certain losses. Arkansas might be the swing game. A loss in that one would put the Tigers at 3-5 in the league. With a loss to Clemson in the opener (a virtual certainty), Auburn would finish 6-6. Though I'm not 100 percent certain it will happen, I'll be consistent in what I've said in the past. If Gus Malzahn doesn't win at least eight games this year, he's done.



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[rammerjammer]

I know this is all off-season banter, but I think the schedule plays into our favor.

This has been mentioned in a couple other threads, but this is the first time in a while that UT is not coming off a bye week coupled with us having just gone through a 7 game gauntlet. Only thing I see that is a benefit to UT is that we are playing at Neyland. Outside of that, I think we make it 10 in a row.

 

[TerryP]

2. There will be 2 (and possibly 3) SEC coaching changes by season's end

Kevin Sumlin is almost certainly cooked. So that's one. I don't have any faith in Mark Stoops' ability to avoid another late-season collapse at Kentucky. There's two. The third? You'll have to read on to find out.

5. Auburn will post its second straight losing SEC record

Is he first from AL.com that's come out and said Gus is gone after this season?

 

[UAgrad93]

4. Alabama's defense will be better than it was in 2015

Really good possibility here! If this is the case, then someone please explain how in the HELL #1 is going to happen!

 

[bamachine]

Really good possibility here! If this is the case, then someone please explain how in the HELL #1 is going to happen!

Probably thinking our O will take a couple of steps back and that UT will basically be the same team as last year that led us until the last few minutes, at home.

Not saying it will happen but not a huge stretch of the imagination.

BTW, fuck UT

 

[TerryP]

Really good possibility here! If this is the case, then someone please explain how in the HELL #1 is going to happen!

It didn't happen last year when he made his 5 bold predictions and chose UT to win the East. Last year wasn't so much of a stretch. To me, he's playing the odds with this year's prognostication.

Check this out:

This year on the Vols:

It's no surprise to regular readers I've been high on this year's Volunteers for some time. Tennessee returns 18 starters, including a potentially dynamic quarterback in Joshua Dobbs, from a team that lost four games by a total of 16 points last year. The Vols will no doubt have Oct. 15 vs. the Crimson Tide circled on their calendar, and this is the year they finally get over the hump. It's been a while. The last time Tennessee beat Alabama (2006), Mike Shula and Phillip Fulmer were the two head coaches. But unless the still-unresolved off-field controversy engulfs Butch Jones at some point (and there's no evidence thus far that it will), this will be a memorable year in Knoxville.
​

Last year on the Vols:

You read that right — the Volunteers will represent the SEC East in Atlanta this year. Tennessee took a major step forward by posting a winning record and a bowl game victory last fall, and will do so again in Butch Jones' third season. Quarterback Joshua Dobbs — this year's version of Dak Prescott — leads a Tennessee team that returns 18 starters, including 10 on offense.​

 

[TerryP]

FWIW, last year's 5 bold predictions:

1. Tennessee will win the SEC East
You read that right — the Volunteers will represent the SEC East in Atlanta this year. Tennessee took a major step forward by posting a winning record and a bowl game victory last fall, and will do so again in Butch Jones' third season. Quarterback Joshua Dobbs — this year's version of Dak Prescott — leads a Tennessee team that returns 18 starters, including 10 on offense.

2. Auburn's Jeremy Johnson will be this year's Blake Sims
As with Sims and Alabama last year, Auburn's offense will not miss a beat — and might even get better — despite a largely unproven quarterback taking over. Johnson had an excellent half in last year's opener against Arkansas while Nick Marshall was suspended, and also had a good showing in the Tigers' A-Day game. JuCo transfer Jovon Robinson should also emerge as one of the SEC's top running backs.

3. Steve Spurrier will retire after a losing season

It's a shame that Spurrier has to go out like this after such a brilliant career, but it's hard to see South Carolina improving much on last year's disappointing 7-6 finish. The Gamecocks must face Georgia, Missouri, Texas A&M and Tennessee on the road, and also play North Carolina, Clemson and LSU. The 70-year-old Spurrier is under contract through 2018, but has already hinted in the past that he might be nearing the end.

4. Mississippi State will finish last in the SEC West

It has to be somebody, right? And as Arkansas showed last year, you can finish last in the West and still finish with a winning record. The Bulldogs are a major candidate for regression this year, fading somewhat at the end of last year and returning just 7 starters this season. Dak Prescott will keep things interesting, but he's likely to be running for his life — if he even stays healthy — behind a patchwork offensive line.

5. Alabama will start multiple QBs, but still win the SEC West

Jake Coker will start Alabama's opener in Dallas against Wisconsin, but won't be under center by the time the Iron Bowl rolls around. Redshirt freshman David Cornwell looks like the best bet to take over; the only question is when. Nevertheless, the Crimson Tide doesn't play a true road game until October, and Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee and LSU all visit Bryant-Denny. Alabama might lose a game or two along the way, but will be back in Atlanta in 2015.

 

[bamachine]

Like the great philosopher of our times, Meatloaf said "Two outta three5 ain't bad"

 

[TerryP]

"Two outta three5 ain't bad"

1 and a quarter out of five?
Multiple, yes.

Cornwell. No.

Coker won't be under center by the Iron Bowl ... and he's playing as good or better than any QB in the nation at that point.

He called ATL ... so, 1.5 of 5.

 

[bamachine]

I only read things written in bold.