🏈 .500 teams in conference play. Name the four for LSU this fall.

[alagator]

Let's say LSU finishes .500 in conference play this season. They have Georgia and Florida from the east. .500 probably 4th in the west. Where do the four come from?

Which games will they have a chance or even keep close for that matter. I don't see a lot of them.

 

[TerryP]

They'll have to win A&M, MSU, Ole Miss, and Arkansas.

A second tier...games I just don't see, but maybe an upset? UGA and UF.

Ensminger won't beat Gus.

 

[50+yeartidefan]

I sure cant see them winning 4 of those... @TerryP
Especially at Arkansas and at AnM.... and late in season...
May be a tough year for "o"
Upset..... maybe a UF...
What ateam to watch this year...especially early....

 

[TUSKtimes]

Do they have a QB? Just that simple and that difficult.

 

[XXL TideFan]

UF, Ol' Piss, R Kansas

 

[252BAMA]

3-9 (0-8 )

 

[50+yeartidefan]

Do they have a QB? Just that simple and that difficult.

Transfer from Ohio State....so he has to be great...lol

 

[Max]

comments are guexldon.

LSU Picked To Finish Near The Bottom Of The SEC West

 

[BamaFan334]

I think they beat Georgia this year. Just not sold on where Georgia's defense will be, or their passing game. LSU will sport a good defense, so I'm expecting a 21-17 type game.

 

[TUSKtimes]

I just hope that LSU gets ready for Georgia with the same fervor they show when Bama and the barners come to town. If so, they could win it.

 

[Elderfalsedemigod]

OM, UF and Arky are the only 3 I could legitimately pick. Maybe they luck into a 4th but they also could lose to OM or UF. I just don't see much joy in Whoville this year

 

[JoshB]

3-9 (0-8 )

There's about as much chance of Troy beating LSU as Ole Miss beating LSU... wait... :shock:

 

[TerryP]

comments are guexldon.

LSU Picked To Finish Near The Bottom Of The SEC West

Back when we were in the Shula era I had no issues with LSU fans picking the Tigers to win when they faced Bama. The biggest thing they missed on were their attempts at guessing the final scores. It wasn't uncommon to see some saying LSU wins by three and four touchdowns.

As poorly as the Tide played in those days they still fielded a good defense. So these blowouts they were calling for? Yep. Never came to pass.

Now I see some who are approaching this season realistically. And, there's still a contingent that has the same delusions as those seen 15 years ago.

3-9 (0-8 )

When we started the Sportsbook/Pick 'em here four years ago I recall you winning the first season. ( @TheChief still looking for his missing money from the year before.) So, I know you're not one to throw numbers out there arbitrarily.

But dayum! 0-8? I'm constantly looking at that stretch between Oct. 6th (@UF) to Nov. 10th (@UArk) and can't just dismiss seeing them 0'fer. Three OOC wins and now I'm looking at finding three SEC wins to get them at .500 for the season. I'm having a hard time.

We've talked about Mississippi State for two months now, maybe longer. I'm of the opinion people are expecting a larger transition from Bielema to Morris than there actually will be. In a game following Bama...in a game on the road against UArk...

The optimistic side is saying 7-5.
My gut is telling me 6-6 due to Aranda.
My mind is saying "find the five wins, T. Find the five wins."

 

[252BAMA]

comments are guexldon.

LSU Picked To Finish Near The Bottom Of The SEC West

Back when we were in the Shula era I had no issues with LSU fans picking the Tigers to win when they faced Bama. The biggest thing they missed on were their attempts at guessing the final scores. It wasn't uncommon to see some saying LSU wins by three and four touchdowns.

As poorly as the Tide played in those days they still fielded a good defense. So these blowouts they were calling for? Yep. Never came to pass.

Now I see some who are approaching this season realistically. And, there's still a contingent that has the same delusions as those seen 15 years ago.

3-9 (0-8 )

When we started the Sportsbook/Pick 'em here four years ago I recall you winning the first season. ( @TheChief still looking for his missing money from the year before.) So, I know you're not one to throw numbers out there arbitrarily.

But dayum! 0-8? I'm constantly looking at that stretch between Oct. 6th (@UF) to Nov. 10th (@UArk) and can't just dismiss seeing them 0'fer. Three OOC wins and now I'm looking at finding three SEC wins to get them at .500 for the season. I'm having a hard time.

We've talked about Mississippi State for two months now, maybe longer. I'm of the opinion people are expecting a larger transition from Bielema to Morris than there actually will be. In a game following Bama...in a game on the road against UArk...

The optimistic side is saying 7-5.
My gut is telling me 6-6 due to Aranda.
My mind is saying "find the five wins, T. Find the five wins."

Arkansas is the only SEC game I even considered as a win. But since '92 when Arkansas joined the SEC, LSU is 6-7 against them on the road. 4-5 in Little Rock and 2-2 in Fayetteville. Plus, if LSU goes there at 2-7 as I project, there is no way they are going to win up there against a projected 6-3 Arkansas.

I also place, admittedly, too much emphasis on returning starters. No team in the SEC in 2018 does it worse than LSU. They return 39% of their 2017 Offensive Production and 57% of their Defensive Production. Ranking 122 of 130 with 48% Total. Does not bode well for a team with their schedule.

How effective is it to look at returnees this way?
"Over the last four years, 37 teams have returned at least 80 percent of their production based on current calculations; 32 of them (86 percent) improved, and 22 (59 percent) improved their adjusted scoring margin per game by at least six points.

Meanwhile, 56 teams returned under 50 percent of their production; 48 of them (86 percent) regressed, 27 (48 percent) by at least a touchdown.

Thus far for 2018, 11 teams return 80 percent or more, and 11 return under 50 percent."

2018 CFB returning production rankings: Clemson’s ready. Who else?

Louisiana State vs Arkansas 1992-2017

 

[TerryP]

I'm of the opinion people are expecting a larger transition from Bielema to Morris than there actually will be. In a game following Bama...in a game on the road against UArk...

Arkansas is the only SEC game I even considered as a win. But since '92 when Arkansas joined the SEC, LSU is 6-7 against them on the road. 4-5 in Little Rock and 2-2 in Fayetteville. Plus, if LSU goes there at 2-7 as I project, there is no way they are going to win up there against a projected 6-3 Arkansas.

I'll be watching the spread closely with the 'Backs this season. I really believe there be some value there in several games.

 

[TerryP]

They return 39% of their 2017 Offensive Production

I also place, admittedly, too much emphasis on returning starters.

Within their own parameters. You've got to take talent into account as well.

The 39% returning production has to be looked at three ways; receiving, passing, and rushing. In most cases you'll see returning production matter in those areas, in that order. That's thrown by each school. It's different when you're a guy who can start in a lot of places but not at all. Leatherwood, as example. He's not returning, won't likely be starting, but it's not a reduction in production. Some true freshman add instant production. Jeudy, Waddle this fall.

LSU has landed some good wide receivers which counter balances that aspect of returning production. Running backs has been a large part of their identity but it doesn't have as great of an impact. IF you can't run the ball?

At this rate of second guessing things I'll be at 1-7 by lunch. I can't get past the outside of the offensive line. A quick passing game but you're having difficulty sealing the ends?