🏈 252's Underdog Lock of the Week Three

[252BAMA]

Going to give this a try knowing full well I could end up with egg on my face each week. Picks will normally be home team dogs that I perceive to win straight up. But I'm leading off with a Big 12 visitor this week, not in small part because the Big 12 was so kind to visitors last week. Game is Houston at Baylor (-7 1/2).

IMO, not even Dave Aranda's defensive expertise can overcome his inheritance of a Baylor defense that returns but two starters. Especially opening up against a Houston offense that returns 10 starters including the QB. Houston covers the 7 1/2 and most likely wins SU.

 

[alabama mike]

After my disaster from last week, I need all the help I can get.

 

[252BAMA]

After my disaster from last week, I need all the help I can get.

I was 2-3 with underdogs last week. Won with Arkansas State and Georgia Tech. Lost with UAB, USA, and WKU.

 

[TerryP]

After my disaster from last week, I need all the help I can get.

At least you're one of the few that are above 500K. The last time I looked there were only four that were over 750K.

I managed to work my way back, to some degree, last week.

 

[BamaFan334]

"I mean Kansas" killed me, as did Clemson putting on the brakes late.

 

[NickelDoubleDog]

How is the Baylor offense?

Baylor may only be returning 2 starters on D, but they were excellent last year under Phil Snow. Transition is tough however, no matter how elite Aranda is (and he's as good as there is IMO).

 

[alabama mike]

"I mean Kansas" killed me, as did Clemson putting on the brakes late.

Kansas $22,000, K State$25,000 and I State $25,000 all were losses for me.

I did win on WVU $22,000, App State $25,000 for the win, UNC $25,000 for the win, Army $25,000 for the win and ND $100,000 for the win. Pay out is not as large on start wins as over/under or the spread.

 

[252BAMA]

How is the Baylor offense?

Baylor may only be returning 2 starters on D, but they were excellent last year under Phil Snow. Transition is tough however, no matter how elite Aranda is (and he's as good as there is IMO).

Returning starter info is about all I have on any of them this year. Baylor returns 7, including the QB on offense, whereas Houston returns 9 on defense. Thoughts there was that is probably a wash. Houston returning 19 total starters with the QB is about as good as it gets.

Gut feeling is that Aranda's debut as Baylor HC is going to be reminiscent of Stallings' at Bama. I was at that game against Southern Miss. It was not my first Bama game but it looked like it was Bama's first game. In the history of the program! Bret Favre gets a lot of credit for the USM win but it was more a Bama loss than a USM win. The only credit I give Favre is just being on the field, having been released from the hospital on Wednesday of that week, after undergoing surgery for the removal of 30 inches of small intestine.

 

[BamaFan334]

Kansas $22,000, K State$25,000 and I State $25,000 all were losses for me.

I did win on WVU $22,000, App State $25,000 for the win, UNC $25,000 for the win, Army $25,000 for the win and ND $100,000 for the win. Pay out is not as large on start wins as over/under or the spread.

Clemson -$100,000, Kansas -$200,000

I thought for sure Kansas would come out hotter after another year with Miles, and I figured Pooka Williams would have worked some magic.

Clemson just went cruise control the whole game in my mind. I thought they would come out guns a blazing and show they are #1.

 

[252BAMA]

Line is already down to 6 at some of the online books.

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[It Takes Eleven]

I was happy for GaTech Saturday. He inherited very little to work with, most with no meaningful college-level offensive knowledge/instruction.

 

[252BAMA]

I was happy for GaTech Saturday. He inherited very little to work with, most with no meaningful college-level offensive knowledge/instruction.

Lol. He inherited 9 starters on offense and 10 starters on defense. I understand they were recruited for a different style of play, but 19 total starters is very meaningful regardless.

 

[TerryP]

I understand they were recruited for a different style of play

...with the majority growing up under that type of system, and having been coached that system since arriving in D1 play.

Notice the transition of the Ace formation we saw seven and eight years ago to the RPO, 4-wide, HUNH type of approach. It was over the course of four or more seasons.

I'm with Tim here...nice job, ego booster for a program in transition. (No matter the deficiencies at FSU.)

 

[It Takes Eleven]

Lol. He inherited 9 starters on offense and 10 starters on defense. I understand they were recruited for a different style of play, but 19 total starters is very meaningful regardless.

There were seniors on his first year squad who had never seen a college-level playbook, or heard the language of college level offensive formations and plays. It was a high school offense with high school blocking schemes and techniques. It's hard to understate the nature of the disadvantage on offense.

 

[TerryP]

@It Takes Eleven their depth chart (GT) going in to FSU had about a dozen sophomores in August. I believe their QB was a RSO, correct? Some things they're accustomed to already; ACC play for instance.

 

[It Takes Eleven]

@It Takes Eleven their depth chart (GT) going in to FSU had about a dozen sophomores in August. I believe their QB was a RSO, correct? Some things they're accustomed to already; ACC play for instance.

Sims is a true freshman, I believe.

 

[We All Bleed Crimson]

A fitting week for 2020. I lost more $ than I won. (- $50K on kansas)
Oh well, on to next week's picks...

 

[alabama mike]

Clemson -$100,000, Kansas -$200,000

I thought for sure Kansas would come out hotter after another year with Miles, and I figured Pooka Williams would have worked some magic.

Clemson just went cruise control the whole game in my mind. I thought they would come out guns a blazing and show they are #1.

Wow! I feel your pain.

 

[252BAMA]

...with the majority growing up under that type of system, and having been coached that system since arriving in D1 play.

Notice the transition of the Ace formation we saw seven and eight years ago to the RPO, 4-wide, HUNH type of approach. It was over the course of four or more seasons.

I'm with Tim here...nice job, ego booster for a program in transition. (No matter the deficiencies at FSU.)

(No matter the deficiencies at FSU.) Had as much as anything to do with my going with GT. Same with going with Boise State in their 2019 opener.

 

[TerryP]