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252BAMA said:
Clemson and UCLA?
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No. But now I have to go look at the ML. I'm guessing with FSU and Clemson being so close that ML is in the 120 area for Clemson. Good value. I don't like Clemson in this game. I don't see them as having the QB or the skill players to match FSU. (That home dog thing, I know...I'm taking FSU at -1½.)

UCLA? Again, see this one differently. UCLA's offense was clicking last week and then we have Utah at home? 51½ looks low. I like Utah at -4½ as well.

I know the value isn't as good as the one's you've mentioned but I'm looking at the other side of this. IE: Iowa State is 10/17, -170. While 17K will pay 10, I'm thinking about 170K.
 
TerryP said:
No. But now I have to go look at the ML. I'm guessing with FSU and Clemson being so close that ML is in the 120 area for Clemson. Good value. I don't like Clemson in this game. I don't see them as having the QB or the skill players to match FSU. (That home dog thing, I know...I'm taking FSU at -1½.)

UCLA? Again, see this one differently. UCLA's offense was clicking last week and then we have Utah at home? 51½ looks low. I like Utah at -4½ as well.

I know the value isn't as good as the one's you've mentioned but I'm looking at the other side of this. IE: Iowa State is 10/17, -170. While 17K will pay 10, I'm thinking about 170K.
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I don't like Clemson either but if FSU does what they did at BC, they will lose at Clemson. So my thinking is FSU loses rather than Clemson wins.

I like UCLA, especially if Rising is still out. Even if it is on the road.

I went with Oklahoma State vs Iowa State. I know they are terrible, but so is Iowa State.
 
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252BAMA said:
I like UCLA, especially if Rising is still out. Even if it is on the road.
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There's one. #2, and this is a big one for me, is the matchup between Kelly and Scalley. Scalley has put together some good defenses the last few years. TFL's and sacks will stymie a Kelly offense and that's something Utah has pretty well ruled the PAC in for the last four, five years...if not a little longer. Hell, Scalley has been there for 15 or more years...8th or 9th as DC I think.
 
TerryP said:
No. But now I have to go look at the ML. I'm guessing with FSU and Clemson being so close that ML is in the 120 area for Clemson. Good value. I don't like Clemson in this game. I don't see them as having the QB or the skill players to match FSU. (That home dog thing, I know...I'm taking FSU at -1½.)

UCLA? Again, see this one differently. UCLA's offense was clicking last week and then we have Utah at home? 51½ looks low. I like Utah at -4½ as well.

I know the value isn't as good as the one's you've mentioned but I'm looking at the other side of this. IE: Iowa State is 10/17, -170. While 17K will pay 10, I'm thinking about 170K.
Click to expand...
What about CCU? 159K there would pay 60K. Then play with partial house money on Iowa State. Of course you don't have to be concerned with that sitting at close to 1M. :D I put 53K on CCU.

I had a decent week last week. Started with 306K and wound up with 461K. Memphis nearly cost me 200K. Thought they were a sure thing and they should have lost to Navy. It's why I'm not concerned about the MO QB situation. MO could beat Memphis with me at QB. Just hand the ball off like Navy does.
 
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252BAMA said:
What about CCU? 159K there would pay 60K. Then play with partial house money on Iowa State. Of course you don't have to be concerned with that sitting at close to 1M. :D I put 53K on CCU.
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I like McCall. But I have to weigh that against Ga Southern's defense and I can see an INT, or two. I like Ga Southern's running game when matched against CCU's running defense.

My gut tells me take Ga Southern...but is it enough to play +225? Recent ATS trends point to CCU but only by a slight margin. Recent play tells me this is a road upset.
 
252BAMA said:
BYU? Sagarin has Kansas at -0.22. Kansas beat Illinois only by 11. They are not going to beat BYU by 10. I like BYU SU. If they can win at Arkansas, they can win at Kansas.
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As it ends up ... after I put the early lines up Monday I took BYU 48 minutes before you did: your first time. Now that the ML's are posted I'm just starting to look back over the games. This is one I'd chalked up as a "look again." I'm playing it again, but this time on the total.

FWIW, I saw where Callahan's SP+ had this one as a 50/50 for a BYU road upset. I thought the total was low when I posted it earlier ... saw his model has this game in the mid-70's.
 
TerryP said:
As it ends up ... after I put the early lines up Monday I took BYU 48 minutes before you did: your first time. Now that the ML's are posted I'm just starting to look back over the games. This is one I'd chalked up as a "look again." I'm playing it again, but this time on the total.

FWIW, I saw where Callahan's SP+ had this one as a 50/50 for a BYU road upset. I thought the total was low when I posted it earlier ... saw his model has this game in the mid-70's.
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I figured the 25K wager on the over was yours. FWIW, Sagarin has this game at 50.47, but I know you said it takes 4 or 5 weeks for his data to start clicking.
 
252BAMA said:
FWIW, Sagarin has this game at 50.47, but I know you said it takes 4 or 5 weeks for his data to start clicking.
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In my opinion it does most of the time. Right now I'm looking at sample size.

Kansas: Mizzou St, Nevada, and Illinois. Illini, maybe? But, it was 34-7 early in the 3rd when Kansas just put on the brakes. I wasn't impressed with Bert's defense.

BYU: Sam Houston, S Utah, and Arkansas.

I'm looking at 66% of the games he's using as a reference ... and what does it tell me? Do I make anything of BYU only putting up 14 on Sam Houston? Or is the 41 against S Utah a clearer picture?


I decided to jump over to Covers to see where the public is heading right now on their site ...

Screenshot 2023-09-20 4.43.36 PM.png
 
TerryP said:
In my opinion it does most of the time. Right now I'm looking at sample size.

Kansas: Mizzou St, Nevada, and Illinois. Illini, maybe? But, it was 34-7 early in the 3rd when Kansas just put on the brakes. I wasn't impressed with Bert's defense.

BYU: Sam Houston, S Utah, and Arkansas.

I'm looking at 66% of the games he's using as a reference ... and what does it tell me? Do I make anything of BYU only putting up 14 on Sam Houston? Or is the 41 against S Utah a clearer picture?


I decided to jump over to Covers to see where the public is heading right now on their site ...

View attachment 25544
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Line is at 8.5 on the online books.


College Football Lines: Live College Football Point Spreads & Odds

Live College Football Lines from 14 different sportsbooks, including 1st and half 2nd half spreads. The only quality up to date college football odds feed that is free to the public!
madduxsports.com
 

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