A 3 team race with Baylor at 4
Oklahoma
Over/under 9.5 wins
- Wins: UTEP, Kent State, at Nebraska, at TCU, Kansas, at Iowa State, Baylor, at West Virginia, Oklahoma State
- Losses: Kansas State, Texas, at Texas Tech
Analysis: The Sooners have been a 10-win machine across virtually the entire unified national championship era. Under Lincoln Riley and Bob Stoops, the Sooners have fallen under 10 wins just four times, not counting the Covid-shortened 2020 season. However, Brent Venables is starting from scratch in some ways, which makes projecting Oklahoma more difficult than ever. There are real speed bumps along the way, even if the Sooners can manage tough games against last year's Big 12 Championship Game participants Baylor and Oklahoma State. At least in 2022, this isn't an OU squad that's head and shoulders above the rest.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-115)
Oklahoma State
Over/under 9 wins
- Wins: Central Michigan, Arizona State, UAPB, Texas Tech, at TCU, Texas, at Kansas State, at Kansas, Iowa State, West Virginia
- Losses: at Baylor, at Oklahoma
Analysis: Oklahoma State was the class of the Big 12 until the final play of the Big 12 Championship Game in 2021 and should be back with a vengeance in 2022. While defensive coordinator Jim Knowles left for
Ohio State, the Cowboys added veteran SEC assistant Derek Mason in his place. Quarterback
Spencer Sanders enters his fourth year as a starter and defensive end
Collin Oliver leads what should be a fearsome unit once again. The defense won't be quite as nationally elite with a handful of departures, but OSU has the juice to get back to the Big 12 title game -- maybe even against the same opponent.
Pick: Over 9 (+110)
Texas
Over/under 9 wins
- Wins: ULM, UTSA, at Texas Tech, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Iowa State, TCU, at Kansas
- Losses: Alabama, at Oklahoma State, at Kansas State, Baylor
Analysis: The Texas hype train has arrived at the station right on time, as the Longhorns are
early betting favorites to win the Big 12 for the first time since 2009. Transfer quarterback
Quinn Ewers gives the Longhorns one of the most heralded quarterback recruits of all time, while running back
Bijan Robinson enters 2022 as a likely Heisman contender. However, the defense didn't get many reinforcements after a 5-7 season and the offensive line remains a problem area. Pushing the nine-win mark is possible, but there's actually more value in assuming the under than expecting 10 regular-season wins for the first time since Colt McCoy was in Austin.
Pick: Under 9.0 (-125)
