🏈 Why Alabama will -- or won't -- make the playoff

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It's championship or bust for Alabama. Under Nick Saban, it always is.

But will the Crimson Tide even reach the College Football Playoff this season?

As part of our weeklong series examining whether some SEC teams' goals are unattainable, we tried to tackle that very question. As with everything, there are reasons why and why not.

Why Alabama will reach the playoff:

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  Reggie Ragland leads a group of emerging linebackers, andA'Shawn Robinson is the menacing face of a line loaded with future pros such as Jonathan Allen and Jarran Reed.
  
• Lane Kiffin magic: He loses a Heisman Trophy finalist at receiver, a two-year starter at running back and a record-breaking QB, but does anyone doubt that Lane Kiffin will make it work? He still has a veteran center in Ryan Kelly, a mammoth running back in Derrick Henry, and a promising group of receivers, headlined by ArDarius Stewart and Robert Foster. With O.J. Howard at tight end and Mr. Everything Kenyan Drake back at running back/receiver, Kiffin will have plenty of weapons to play with. And when it comes to who starts at quarterback, just trust that it will work out, whether it’s Jake Coker, David Cornwell or another candidate. If Kiffin could turn former scout team QB/wide receiver Blake Sims into a record-setter then he deserves the benefit of the doubt.
  
  
• Talent trumps all: Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: You can’t coach speed. For that matter, you can’t coach height or natural strength or someone’s leaping ability. All those measurables coaches crave? After four consecutive No. 1-ranked recruiting classes, Alabama has all of them. The backups to the backups are four-stars. It’s why the Tide are being talked about as a top-five team despite losing so many key starters from last year’s squad. They simply plug and play. So while some teams in the SEC West have the returning starters fans covet (think Dak Prescott at Mississippi State,Robert Nkemdiche at Ole Miss, Leonard Fournette at LSU, etc.), don’t count out Alabama. With so much talent, they may not need the experience.
  

Why Alabama will fall short:

• Shaky secondary: The back end of Alabama’s defense should be better than last season, but that may not be saying much. After all, it’s hard not to improve on a final three games in which the defense surrendered an average of 42.7 points and 226.0 passing yards per game. Especially against Auburn and Ohio State, the secondary looked lost, failing often on obvious passing downs. The way Cardale Jones and Nick Marshall threw the ball deep on Alabama ran so contrary to what we’ve come to expect from a Saban-coached defense. And this year could be more of the same with only one starter back at the same position in the secondary. While senior cornerback Cyrus Jones is a star, he might not be enough. There are no obvious answers at safety where Landon Collins' absence looms large. If sophomore Tony Brown doesn’t emerge as a starter, the line of succession at cornerback is just as questionable.
  
  
  
• Ohio State et al: When Ole Miss, Mississippi State, LSU, Auburn and Alabama all lost their bowl games at the end of last season, the benefit of the doubt for the SEC went out the window. Now we can’t just assume the SEC champ will make the playoff, especially if that team has one or two losses. There are simply too many other programs outside the SEC to deal with this year. If the difference between teams is close, don’t be surprised if a Big 12 team like TCU gets the nod over a two-loss Alabama (followed by highlights of the Horned Frogs demolishing Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl). While we could spend hours debating scheduling and the merits of such a selection, the fact remains that momentum is not heading in the SEC’s favor. If that holds true, it could ultimately cost Alabama a spot in the playoff.
  

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