🏈 Week Two: PJ's SEC/NCAA Picks (Previews, Lines, and recommended wagers)

[psychojoe]

Middle Tennessee State at Alabama​

The Blue Raiders are fresh off a 70-14 opening win over Jackson State and bring their hurry up spread attack to Tuscaloosa this weekend. This one should not be anything resembling close, just on the talent disparity between the two teams. It will serve as a test of Alabama's revamped secondary and its tweaked approach to defending the hurry up, and perhaps it will be a warm up for the more talented offense that Ole Miss will bring in a week from Saturday.

Alabama came through the Wisconsin game with no significant injuries, at least none that I am aware of. Look for the tide to win big, and to easily cover the 34.5 point spread.
____________________________________________________________________

WK2: Middle Tennessee State at Alabama

Outcomes w/Current Odds

Bama wins : 100/23000 ()

MTSU wins : 8500/100 ()

Bama -34.5 : 100/110 ()

MTSU wins : 100/110 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[psychojoe]

Georgia at Vanderbilt ​

Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse for Vandy, their offense sank to new lows in their opening loss to Western Kentucky. They were able to put up only 12 points on a Hilltopper defense that we can charitably describe as not top drawer. Coach Mason said during the off season that their biggest problem was using five different quarterbacks a year ago. Obviously there are other significant problems here that need to be addresses.

This is only nominally a Vandy home game. Even Western Kentucky had more fans in attendance in the opener than the home folks did. There will be so many more Georgia fans in Nashville for this game than Vandy faithful that the game might as well be in Athens.

Georgia comes in favored by 19. 5.

Are you kidding me? Is it Christmas already?

Mortgage the house. Cash out the 401k. Raid the kid's piggy bank. Heck, even get all the emergency cash out from under the sofa cushions. Put it all on Georgia to cover.

____________________________________________________________________

WK2: Georgia at Vanderbilt

Outcomes w/Current Odds

UGA wins : 100/1250 ()

Vandy wins : 800/100 ()

UGA -19.5 : 100/110 ()

VAndy +19.5 : 100/110 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[psychojoe]

Oklahoma vs Tennessee​

This is an interesting one, both regarding the game (two ranked teams after all) and the line. The line opened at Oklahoma -3, and quickly was down to -1. Five Dimes, the source we use for our Sportsbook lines, has the game as a pick it.

Tennessee is better this year. I have no doubt about it. Their fans, and the early money like them a lot. Still, Bowling Green moved the ball a lot on their secondary, and Oklahoma > than Bowling Green. The money line in the Sportsbook is even money, essentially. I am taking OU, and taking them right now. Later in the week you will have to give points to get the Sooners.

______________________________________________________________________________

WK2: Oklahoma at Tennessee

Outcomes w/Current Odds

OU wins : 100/110 ()

UT wins : 100/110 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[psychojoe]

East Carolina at Florida​

East Carolina has made themselves a team that the nearby ACC neighbors don't want to play. They have registered victories over Virginia Tech, North Carolina and North Carolina State in recent years. South Carolina was very fortunate to beat them a year ago. They return a good bit from a decent defense last year. Offensively there may be some issues. They were already breaking in a new QB, and their projected starter went down for the season in fall camp with a knee injury. They struggled, but prevailed, in their opener versus Towson State.

Gator fans came to the new season looking for something to cheer about, and Jim McIlwain's trops gave it to them. They put up over 60 points with 600 yards of offense, totals that might well have taken a Will Muschamp offense half a season to match. Since both their QBs played well in their opener, both will see the field this week as well.

The line is 19.5 this week. The Gators won't romp in quite as easily as last week, but they should cover this spread.

____________________________________________________________________

WK2: East Carolina at Florida

Outcomes w/Current Odds

ECU wins : 800/100 ()

UF wins : 100/1250 ()

UF -19.5 : 100/110 ()

ECU +19.5 : 100/110 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[psychojoe]

Ball State at Texas A&M​

The Aggies flexed some unexpected muscle this past weekend, as they notched an impressive season opening win over then 15th ranked Arizona State. This week they step out of Power Five competition to play the Cardinals of Ball State. As hungry as the Aggies are after last season's struggles their should be no letdown in their home opener. Take the Aggies and give the 30 points.

_____________________________________________________________________________:

WK2: Ball State at Texas A&M

Outcomes w/Current Odds

Ball State wins : 4000/100 ()

A&M wins : 100/10000 ()

A&M -30 : 100/110 ()

Ball State +30 : 100/110 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[psychojoe]

Missouri at Arkansas State​

I am not sure why Missouri agreed to play the Red Wolves on the road, but it is what it is. Arkansas State has been a pretty good team in their own weight class, so to speak, and have even given some of the big boys a scare in the past. I don't have strong feelings about this one, but if I had to plunk down some long green on it I would take Missouri and give the 12.5.

_____________________________________________________________________________

WK2: Missouri at Arkansas State

Outcomes w/Current Odds

Mizzou wins : 100/465 ()

ASU wins : 370/100 ()

Mizzou -12.5 : 100/110 ()

ASU +12.5 : 100/110 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[psychojoe]

Fresno State at Mississippi​

The Fresno State Bulldogs essentially had two schedules a year ago. They were 0-4 and blown out against the four 'big boys' and 6-2 in their own weight class.

Ole Miss, meanwhile, is excited, so far, about their new QB, Chad Kelly. The Rebs should win this one in comfort, covering the 24.5 easily.

______________________________________________________________________________

Fresno State at Mississippi

Outcomes w/Current Odds

Fresno State wins : 2500/100 ()

Ole Miss wins : 100/5000 ()

Ole Miss -24.5 : 100/110 ()

Fresno State +24.5 : 100/110 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[psychojoe]

Kentucky at South Carolina​

Neither team was impressive in their opener. South Carolina won because their defense was very stingy in the red zone, but woeful would be an accurate description of their offense. Not Vanderbilt woeful, but still pretty bad. Kentucky built up what looked like a comfortable lead in their game, but ended up putting their strters back in the game to secure the win. South Carolina came out of its game pretty beaten up physically as well, and it is problematic whether their best running back and two of their receivers (already a thin group) will play.

There are three good looking wagers here. In the order of their appeal:

1. South Carolina should be favored in this game only because they are at home. 9.5 points is too much IMO. Take the Wildcats and the points.

2. 57 seems high on the O/U line, considering the Gamecocks and their QB issues, and their defense.

3. Kentucky is an intriguing play on the money line. 100 gets you 290, essentially 3 to one odds that SC wins straight up. Kentucky has a pretty good chance to win straight up, maybe not quite 50/50, but reasonably close to it.

___________________________________________________________________________

WK2: Kentucky at South Carolina

Outcomes w/Current Odds

UofSC wins : 100/350 ()

UK wins : 290/100 ()

UofSC -9.5 : 100/110 ()

UK +9.5 : 100/110 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[psychojoe]

LSU at Mississippi State​

This one should be an indicator as to how the rest of the season will go for both of these teams. Mississippi State was not impressive at all in their opener, struggling all the way against Southern Miss. Considering Southern Miss's struggles in recent years I will assume that the clangers were looking past their opener to this week's battle with LSU.

LSU has the same question mark that they had a year ago, the quarterback position, and the same two players battling for the position. Because severe weather caused LSU's opener to be cancelled, we did not get a peek at this year's Tigers. The Tigers are pretty well loaded everywhere else though.

I am leaning slightly towards the home team to win this one, but I don't have much confidence in that. This one should be a low scoring affair, and I like the under at 49.5.

____________________________________________________________________________

WK2: LSU at Mississippi State

Outcomes w/Current Odds

LSU wins : 100/150 ()

MSU wins : 130/100 ()

LSU -3 : 100/110 ()

MSU +3 : 100/110 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[psychojoe]

Arizona at Nevada​

Wildcats versus Wolfpack. An interesting matchup to say the least. Nevada is a good Mountain West team, one who is not reluctant to take on power five opponents. While they don't have many scalps to show for that, they rarely get blown out. Arizona won by a touchdown at home last year versus the Wolfpack. In their opener versus the Roadrunners of Texas San Antonio they resembled Wily Coyote more than Wildcats.

I think Arizona ekes by, but an upset would not shock me. Laying 100 to win 370 on the Wolfpack winning straight up is not a terrible proposition by any means. Even better is getting the Wolfpack plus 11.5, my recommended play.

________________________________________________________________________

Arizona at Nevada

Outcomes w/Current Odds

Arizona wins : 100/465 ()

Nevada wins : 370/100 ()

Arizona -11.5 : 100/110 ()

Nevada +11.5 : 100/110 ()

Over 62 : 100/110 ()

Under 62 : 100/110 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[the Bookie]

Oregon State vs Michigan
​

Michigan enters its second week of PAC 12 play still licking its wounds from the bruising that Utah put on them. The Wolverines will have an easier time getting their first W of the Harbaugh era at home in The Big House. They win straight up, but I like Oregon State to cover the 15.5. Take the visitor and the points.

WK2: Oregon State at Michigan

Outcomes w/Current Odds

OSU wins : 425/100 ()

Michigan wins : 100/550 ()

Michigan -14 : 100/110 ()

OSU +14 : 100/110 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[psychojoe]

After one week it is hard to tell if the Irish are that good, or is Texas that bad. I am leaning towards the second option. Virginia did not inspire a lot of confidence at UCLA either. The Domers are favored to win by 10.5. While I expect them to win, I do think that they will not cover. Take the home team and the points.

Notre Dame at Virginia

Outcomes w/Current Odds

Notre Dame wins -390 : 100/390 ()

VA wins : 370/100 ()

Notre Dame -10.5 : 100/110 ()

VA +10.5 : 100/110 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[psychojoe]

JSU vs Auburn​

I had great admiration for this set of Gamecocks a few years back, when they stunned Ole Miss. I am not predicting that this Saturday, but they usually give a good account of themselves in games like this, and even the Boogs will be reluctant to pour it on excessively against an in state outclassed opponent. Taking the Gamecocks and the points is tempting, but at 62 points I like the Over in this one.

New Odds

Over 62 : 100/110 ()

New Odds

Under 62 : 100/110 ()

New Odds

Auburn -38 : 100/110 ()

New Odds

Jacksonville State +38 : 100/110 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[psychojoe]

Oregon vs Michigan State​

The Quack attack visits Sparty. The vaunted Spartan D faded in the second half last year at Oregon. Ohio State then exposed them in the B1g championship game, and it took an epic comeback for them to win their bowl game. Mariota is now in the NFL, but the Ducks still have a lot of firepower. As do the Spartans, with their Conner Cook led offense. I like the Ducks straight up in this one, but the real play on this one is the over, even at 67.

the Bookie submitted a new Sportsbook Event:

Oregon at Michigan State

Outcomes w/Current Odds

Oregon Wins : 150/100 ()

Mich. St. Wins : 100/170 ()

Mich. St. -3.5 : 100/110 ()

Oregon +3.5 : 100/110 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[psychojoe]

Toledo vs Arkansas​

Our former QB Phillip Ely shows up here as Toledo's starting quarterback, on a pretty good team. Arkansas should win, but I have no certainty that they will cover the spread. What really looks good, though, is the over. These two teams should shatter the O/U line at 54.

the Bookie submitted a new Sportsbook Event:

Toledo vs Arkansas

Outcomes w/Current Odds

Toledo wins : 1075/100 ()

Arkansas wins : 100/1650 ()

Arkansas -21.5 : 100/110 ()

Toledo +21.5 : 100/110 ()

Place your wagers here...

 

[psychojoe]

FIU vs Indiana​

Both teams are coming off of disappointing seasons a year ago. These teams were both 4-8 a year ago. The highlight of 2014 for Indiana was its 31-27 win over Missouri. They were fortunate to escape with a one point win over SIU in their opener this year. FIU had a very humdrum 2014, but they began 2015 by upsetting UCF. Indiana is a 7.5 point favorite, about right for home field advantage. I really don't have any recommendations on this game, but if you twist my arm I'll say the Hoosiers win and cover. But my bucks are not on it, Bamabucks or otherwise.

the Bookie submitted a new Sportsbook Event:

Florida International at Indiana

Outcomes w/Current Odds

Over 55.5 : 100/110 ()

Under 55.5 : 100/110 ()

FIU wins : 250/100 ()

Indiana wins : 100/300 ()

FIU +7.5 : 100/110 ()

Indiana -705 : 100/110 ()

Place your wagers here...