I believe we need 5-6 teams ahead of us to find a loss and it needs to be the right teams to be sure of us getting back in. Here's some things we need to see hypothetically happen.
Ohio State vs Penn State - This one is tough to call because it requires knowing what voters will do. I would suspect Penn State losing is better than Ohio State even though they are undefeated they have a very easy schedule so their SoS wouldn't be appealing. That being said, there's a factor that if Ohio State loses they may be outright ranked behind us, but I doubt it. They'll say Penn State and Oregon are way better teams than UT and Vandy and we'll still be on the outside.
Iowa State - We need ISU to lose a game at least, the sooner the better. They're a paper tiger with a very easy schedule this year and there's not a lot of good teams for them to fight against this year. They're primed for a big drop if they lose but they've got a favorable schedule with most of their hard games being at home. So far the best chance to knock them off is the final game of the year at home vs Kansas State, that doesn't bode well for us there.
BYU - We really need them to drop a game, another paper tiger they've played a very favorable schedule, the game at Stillwater was likely their best chance to lose and they won this year. I don't see them losing a game down the stretch, they'll get exposed in the playoffs though. Sucks but barring a bad team finding a way to win, I think they will go undefeated.
Tennessee - Need them to drop a game to Georgia or Vandy or both. It will slightly hurt our resume but they'd likely be ranked just behind us with a loss and we could move up a slight bit.
Texas A&M - They've got the tough test of Texas at home at the end of the year which will be interesting but IMO the visit to USCe tomorrow intrigues me. South Carolina is typically better offensively at home and we all know their defense is rough. They will try to limit Reed more and force him to throw the ball better than LSU could. I could see this being their big upset that jumps us ahead.
Pittsburgh and Clemson - Clemson @ Pitt 11/16 will decide what happens here but best case scenario for us would be Pitt losing against @SMU then beating Clemson at home. It would likely keep both teams behind us.
Indiana - A big loss @ Ohio State where they get blown out could be what we need here, just depends on how the committee and everyone looks at their wins. Another avenue is that if they beat Ohio State and OSU loses to Penn State then likely OSU would be out and PSU and IU would be in. I still think it's more likely IU loses and that should be enough to slide us ahead.
Notre Dame - Another loss would be huge but the toughest game they have left is @ USC. Army at home will likely go the same way Navy game did with a blowout so our only hope for these guys to drop behind us is Lincon Riley late in the year.
All this is a moot point if Bama doesn't win out. I think a close game against LSU is fine but we likely need to win convincingly. A big win against LSU (Beating them by more than 2 scores) might be fuel to push us up 2-3 ranks and put us in striking distance but we can't squander it by having a close game against a bad team to close out the season.