🏈 Two part series: Saban, the draft, which underclassmen may leave

[CollegeFootballNews.com]

Alabama Coach Nick Saban plays a trade-off game, and one would have to concede he’s an expert at it, because it’s paying off. That game is recruiting young men who have the potential to be NFL players, and then developing many of those players to the point that are drafted. This is Part I of a draft discussion.

The tradeoff? The very best frequently elect to leave Alabama after their third seasons in order to play professional football.

Nick Saban doesn’t object to those who are going to be good enough to make it in pro ball after leaving early. After all, he is on the recruiting trail, and Alabama leading the nation in having players drafted and having number one draft picks taken, and even in having a large number of underclassmen taken in the draft is the best story he can tell the stars who have completed their high school careers.

It is a beneficial circle. Good players come in and are developed for the NFL. More good players want to follow them to Alabama to be prepared for the next level.

Those on the outside looking in have a problem in determining which underclassmen might declare for the draft. That doesn’t mean Bama fans don’t know that wide receiver Amari Cooper and safety Landon Collins, both with a year’s eligibility remaining, aren’t going to declare for the draft. Consider those two gone.

But it’s sometimes hard to judge. At the end of the 2009 national championship season, it was a given that linebacker Rolando McClain would end his college career a year early. But what was cornerback Kareem Jackson thinking when he announced he would leave early for the NFL draft? Obviously, we see in hindsight, he was thinking pretty well. He was the 20th player taken in the first round.

In the last five years, Saban has seen 37 Bama players drafted, 15 of them in the first round.

The real question revolves around underclassmen, usually juniors but sometimes players who were redshirted but who have been out of high school for three years (which is the NFL eligibility criterion).

Why don’t all college players who have completed their junior seasons declare for the NFL draft?

For many years there was one huge deterrent, and it’s still in place. Once a player declares for the draft, his college career is over. Not drafted? Tough luck. Last year there were 107 underclassmen who declared for the draft and 45 of them were not selected.

(There have been proposals that a player who is not drafted have the option to return to his school, but at least one problem is that schools have been recruiting new players with the thought that the underclassmen opting for the draft would be gone. There is an overall scholarship limit of 85. Schools could hardly be expected to hold spots in the event the players are not drafted.)

This year that draft declaration comes Jan. 15 for underclassmen to enter the NFL draft that will be in Chicago (the first time in 50 years it has not been in New York) April 30-May 2 at the Auditorium Theatre of Roosevelt University

Now there is another roadblock in the form of NFL advisory committee policy changes.

In the past, there was no limit to the number of underclassmen who could request information on where they might be drafted and 214 applied. This year there is a limit of five per school (although the committee can agree to grade more from one school in certain situations).

Eight schools, including Alabama, exceeded five requests last year. The others wereLSU, Florida State, Miami, South Carolina, Oregon, Stanford and Cal. LSU led the way with 11 requests, while Alabama, Florida State and Miami had 10 apiece.

Saban sees the problem. “It used to be 30 guys then it was 50 and then all of a sudden it was 100. And I think everybody realizes this is not good for anybody. Those guys who were’t drafted last year or didn’t make a team would all be in the draft this year and they would have developed in college another year and they would probably be those third to fifth round guys that are the core of the draft past the very top players.

There is another change. In the past, the NFL advisory committee could give one of five grades: as high as the first round; as high as the second round; as high as the third round; no potential to go in the first three rounds; and no potential to be drafted. The committee has cut that down to three categories -- first round, second round, and, basically, “Stay in school!”

Understandably, Saban -- who spent eight years in the NFL as an assistant coach, coordinator, and head coach -- has been on top of this situation and he discussed it.

He said, “I always allow all the guys who are draft eligible to come to me and say ‘I’d like to know what my draft status is.’ In obvious situations – talking about guys who have a pretty good chance to be first round draft picks – we give the information that allows them to get junior evaluations.

“For (both) the other guys and those top guys, I get some teams to give me an opinion about where they would draft. So if guys aren’t in that top category, I tell them.

“So we only let the guys who have a chance to be top guys to get a first round grade, a second round grade, or a go back to school grade. If they get a go back to school grade, that doesn’t mean they can’t enter the draft. They just aren’t going to rank them.”

Not that they always did that good a job. Saban talked about “the inefficiency of the previous system in terms of the mistakes they made and the information people were getting and then what actually happened.

“At some point in time if we don’t get off of this cycle of a whole bunch of guys going out for the draft that shouldn’t go out for the draft, and this thing of people selling them on that they can get to their second contract soon, they don’t tell them there is less than a 33 per cent chance if you are a sixth round draft choice you are going to get a second contract ever. And if you get drafted in those rounds you are very ‘cutable’ based on the investment that a team has to make in you.

“So why not go back to school and get a degree and try to become a higher pick where you have a better chance and a better investment and a better business decision and a better future?

“It’s not really about where you get drafted. It’s about what kind of career you’re going to have and how long you’re going to be able to play.”

 

[CollegeFootballNews.com]

Alabama isn’t an “if” when it comes to the NFL draft. It’s a question of “how many?” and “which ones?” will be selected when the annual draft event moves from New York to Chicago April 30-May 2. And a question of equal importance will be answered by Jan. 15 when we learn how many Crimson Tide underclassmen have declared for the draft. This is the second part of the discussion.

Alabama loses a boatload of seniors from the 2014 team. On offense, say goodbye to quarterback Blake Sims, fullback Jalston Fowler, tight end Brian Vogler, wide receivers Christion Jones and DeAndrew White, left guard Arie Kouandjio, right guard Leon Brown, and right tackle Austin Shepherd. Senior regulars on defense this season were nose tackle Brandon Ivory, middle linebacker Trey DePriest, strongside linebacker Xzavier Dickson, and safety Nick Perry.


Although no Crimson Tide underclassmen have publicly announced for this year’s draft, there are a couple who are almost certain to take advantage of the situation. Wide receiver Amari Cooper and safety Landon Collins were unanimous All-America selections following their junior seasons in the 2014 season.

NFL insiders say those two should declare for the draft, and that will be Crimson Tide Coach Nick Saban’s advice to them.

Cooper finished third for the Heisman Trophy and was the Biletnikoff Award winner as the nation’s top receiver. He led the nation with Alabama and Southeastern Conference records of 124 receptions for 1,727 yards and had 16 touchdowns and was SEC Offensive Player of the Year. Tide Offensive Coordinator Lane Kiffin said in New Orleans that he expects Cooper to head to the NFL.

Collins had 12 tackles in Bama’s final game of the year, the College Football Playoff semifinal loss to Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl. That equaled his career high for a game. He had seven or more tackles in 11 of his last 15 Alabama games and led the Tide with 103 for the season.

Beyond that, it is possible that no other Alabama underclassmen will elect to take the NFL chance; or, it could be quite a few.

And it is a chance. An underclassman who declares for the draft and then is not drafted doesn’t have the option to return to college football.

Although steps have been taken to encourage underclassmen to stay in school if they are not going to be top round draft choices, some three dozen have already declared. One of them is former Alabama running back Dee Hart, who transferred toColorado State.

Saban said, “Football is one of the only games where there is no other place to develop players. There’s no Triple A like in baseball. There’s no B League or whatever they call it in basketball where the NBA guys go (D-League). None of that. So once you make that decision, it’s kind of all or nothing.

“I try to encourage our guys who aren’t going to be top draft picks to stay in school. Last year we didn’t have success in convincing everyone about that and I don’t know if we’ll be able to do it this year or not.”

By the time we know which of those likely got the Saban warning, it is too late for them and too late for the Crimson Tide to benefit from their play another year.

Probably three juniors are considered most likely to join Cooper and Collins in the underclassman line. They are tailback T.J. Yeldon, linebacker Reggie Ragland, and defensive lineman Jarran Reed.

Yeldon was injured heading up to the Sugar Bowl, which may have cost him the opportunity to be the first person in Bama football history to have three 1,000-yard rushing seasons. He did it as a freshman back-up to Eddie Lacy and as a sophomore starter. This year he came up 21 yards short, getting only 10 carries against Ohio State. Still, he led Bama in rushing with 979 yards and was second team All-SEC.

(Reporters joke that Yeldon, who is extraordinarily media-shy, will probably cost himself hundreds of thousands of dollars because he has a lack of practice and will do poorly on the NFL interviews.)

Ragland, a 6-2, 254-pound linebacker, was second only to Collins in tackles this season with 95 tackles and was also second in tackles for loss with 10 ½. Bama’s returning starter inside linebacker last two years, Trey DePriest this season and C.J. Mosley in 2013, elected to stay for their senior seasons.. It certainly didn’t hurt Mosley, who made All-Pro this year as a rookie. Ragland revealed in New Orleans that his pre-draft grade had been “a nice little result,” but indicated he plans to return.

Jarran Reed, who has been at Bama just one year after transferring from East Mississippi Community College, is a 6-4, 315-pound defensive lineman who led the front group in tackles with 55. Although he said he hasn’t “focused” on the NFL when asked in New Orleans about a possible “one and done,” he indicated he intends to return.

Although it may come as a surprise to those who tend to remember the bad plays, another possible Bama declarer is cornerback Cyrus Jones. Jones had five pass break-ups and a key interception in a losing effort against Ohio State. He finished the year as number one in pass deflections with 14 and tied for the lead (with Collins) in interceptions with three.

Two outstanding Tide players have announced they are returning for their senior seasons. They are defensive end D.J. Pettway and tailback Kenyan Drake. Drake suffered a broken leg in the fifth game of the season. He said he is making progress and expects to participate to some degree in spring practice, and then be full speed for the fall.

There could be a surprise or two with another junior declaring himself ready for pro football, but that seems unlikely. The group includes linebackers Ryan Anderson, Denzel Devall, and Dillon Lee; defensive linemen Dakota Ball, Darren Lake, andDalvin Tomlinson; defensive backs Geno Smith, Bradley Sylve, and Jabriel Washington; offensive linemen Grant Hill, Dominick Jackson, and Isaac Luatua; center Ryan Kelly; wide receiver Chris Black, quarterbacks Jake Coker and Alec Morris; tight ends Malcolm Faciane, Ty Flournoy-Smith, and Kurt Freitag; and placekicker Adam Griffith.

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