🏈 Tua not playing vs LSU guarantees UA a Playoff Spot

[Tidestalker]

I know that's not the way you want to get in... But it's true, assuming we beat Auburn.

If we beat LSU with Mac, even better.

But if we lose without Tua, the committee would HAVE to take that into account. Not to mention no longer having to worry about a loss in the SECCG or the injuries that could happen.

I'm not rooting or hoping for this, just speaking what I believe to be true. Weird predicament... RTR

 

[Justneedme81]

This is not locked.... likely will get left out of the playoff if we lose to LSU. No SEC Championship game.. and that hurts us.

 

[rocknthefreeworld]

Probably would need another team to lose a game or two somewhere in that case. There is no leeway for Bama this year at all.

 

[Vabama77]

I don't want to be sweating it out...run table and remove doubt. However I believe a 1 loss bama would trump Oklahoma or oregon

 

[Tidestalker]

I don't want to be sweating it out...run table and remove doubt. However I believe a 1 loss bama would trump Oklahoma or oregon

My thoughts exactly. Especially beating Auburn in that last week (who beat Oregon)

 

[alabama mike]

To quote the late Raiders owner, Al Davis, "just win baby!"

 

[NickelDoubleDog]

My thoughts exactly. Especially beating Auburn in that last week (who beat Oregon)

Should be true, but there's already national media on twitter making sure people know they think this is wrong.

They will point to SOS figures in the abstract. They will say "Oregon and Oklahoma were conference champs. Alabama couldn't even win their own division".

And since Bama made in in 2017, but with a marquee OOC win, the pressure will be to NOT put Bama in this time.

 

[BamaFan334]

I happen to think you're right. Even if we lose with Tua, we will make it in. As we talked about at the beginning of the season,they all know the odds of us losing twice in a year is so small that they know we will perform in a playoff setting and bring a crowd.

 

[EasyTider]

Losing 1 of the 2 games we play this year doesn’t seem to bode well IMO.

 

[Vabama77]

I see the point above tho...it is deeper than resume of team A vs team B. As pathetic as Tim Brando has become he's right about "brand matters". Committee does know we travel well and our team performs well in playoffs as well

 

[OldPlayer]

I know that's not the way you want to get in... But it's true, assuming we beat Auburn.

If we beat LSU with Mac, even better.

But if we lose without Tua, the committee would HAVE to take that into account. Not to mention no longer having to worry about a loss in the SECCG or the injuries that could happen.

I'm not rooting or hoping for this, just speaking what I believe to be true. Weird predicament... RTR

You're out of your mind. The committee is seeking the four best teams. Not the four best teams if their full roster can play. If Alabama loses, other teams will need to lose in order for the committee to pick the best 1-loss team.

 

[Tidestalker]

You're out of your mind. The committee is seeking the four best teams. Not the four best teams if their full roster can play. If Alabama loses, other teams will need to lose in order for the committee to pick the best 1-loss team.

Which 1 loss teams do you think the committee will see as a better team?

 

[OldPlayer]

Which 1 loss teams do you think the committee will see as a better team?

Won't know until the end, but if the selection day was today, those in the running include 1-loss Georgia, Florida, Oklahoma, Oregon, in addition to the undefeateds of LSU, tOSU, Clemson, Minnesota, Penn State and Baylor.

 

[94 Grad]

I know that's not the way you want to get in... But it's true, assuming we beat Auburn.

If we beat LSU with Mac, even better.

But if we lose without Tua, the committee would HAVE to take that into account. Not to mention no longer having to worry about a loss in the SECCG or the injuries that could happen.

I'm not rooting or hoping for this, just speaking what I believe to be true. Weird predicament... RTR

Our schedule would be a bit weak if we lose to LSU and don't play SECCG. I think we'd need a bit of outside help if we end up losing to LSU.

If LSU were to lose in the SECCG, then a 1 loss UGA/UF winner would be going along with a strong look at a 1 loss LSU. I think Bama get's left out for sure if LSU beats Bama and loses SECCG. If you figure LSU wins out so they would be undefeated and are in.

I don't think Clemson will have a loss coming into it.

So that takes two spots for sure.

OSU would have to lose to PSU or Mich.... and even then, would get consideration with us. Could be a coin toss.

If PSU takes out OSU, then you'd have to like them to be undefeated coming into the playoffs.

Basically, you're going to end up with 1 or 2 undefeated with 4 or so 1 loss teams fighting for 2 spots.

With really only one quality win over Auburn... if they even stayed in the top 25 with a loss to us... then we'd not have much of a case against most of the other 1 loss teams.

Let's just win out and then we won't have to worry about it

 

[It Takes Eleven]

I know that's not the way you want to get in... But it's true, assuming we beat Auburn.

If we beat LSU with Mac, even better.

But if we lose without Tua, the committee would HAVE to take that into account. Not to mention no longer having to worry about a loss in the SECCG or the injuries that could happen.

I'm not rooting or hoping for this, just speaking what I believe to be true. Weird predicament... RTR

Lose to LSU and then win out, I guess you're saying.

I don't want to dodge Georgia or Florida, whoever is there.

 

[JoshB]

Thankfully, Saban would retire before allowing a mindset like that to creep in... but even so, I dont think we get in (depending on everything surrounding us).

 

[Crimson&WhiteGecko]

Conversely if 'Bama, OSU, & Clemson win out LSU will probably be 4th & we'd probably have to play them in the Semifinal. Unless OSU leaps Bama but I don't think that will be possible if we beat LSU.

 

[Bamaclam]

A one loss Alabama does not get in over a one loss PSU or OSU. Provided our Loss is to LSU.

If we lose to LSU we would have to hope that the BIG 12 remembers they are the BIG 12 and they knock each other off, and Clemson looses a game. preferably in the Championship game.

I don't see Alabama leapfrogging three Conference champs with one or less losses and the odd team out of PSU/OSU.

Bottom Line Beat LSU. I personally think we beat them by 17 next week. It wont matter who is QB either. LSU won against AUB and Fla at home by slim margins. Our offence with Mac Jones is light years better than either Fla or AUB and we are playing at home.

Our defensive pressure will keep Borrow from setting up and making his check downs. Our defense is coming into form and making turnovers and scoring NOTs again. I think they will be unleashed for the first time against LSU and Burrow. Our line is better than LSU on both sides of the ball and that has been the difference in this series for years and will be once again on the 9th.

 

[OldPlayer]

A one loss Alabama does not get in over a one loss PSU or OSU. Provided our Loss is to LSU.

If we lose to LSU we would have to hope that the BIG 12 remembers they are the BIG 12 and they knock each other off, and Clemson looses a game. preferably in the Championship game.

I don't see Alabama leapfrogging three Conference champs with one or less losses and the odd team out of PSU/OSU.

Bottom Line Beat LSU. I personally think we beat them by 17 next week. It wont matter who is QB either. LSU won against AUB and Fla at home by slim margins. Our offence with Mac Jones is light years better than either Fla or AUB and we are playing at home.

Our defensive pressure will keep Borrow from setting up and making his check downs. Our defense is coming into form and making turnovers and scoring NOTs again. I think they will be unleashed for the first time against LSU and Burrow. Our line is better than LSU on both sides of the ball and that has been the difference in this series for years and will be once again on the 9th.

I think we only have to win by 1. IMO, the weakest part of our defense is the DBs. They've made plays, but given up too many third down conversions. LSU's strength is Burrow. How that matchup plays out will be the deciding factor.

 

[Tidestalker]

I know this - A loss with Tua is much more likely to knock us out than a loss without.

I also know that we've struggled heading into that Championship game undefeated.

Just some silver lining if Mac does have to play... Not the end of the world if we were to lose that game. Although we will all undoubtably meltdown accordingly