🏈 Texas A&M vs Alabama Crimson Tide - preview

Line went from -27 to -25.5 today. Pretty big jump.

I saw that. Sometimes I think I understand why a point line moves. In cases like this I don't really understand. I did believe -27 was too much though.
The line is set to drive bets one side or the other... if it drops... the bets are coming in too heavy for UA to NOT cover... so the line drops to push more bets to the other side.
 
Why Texas A&M won't play into Alabama's hands like Ole Miss did


In Alabama's 62-7 victory over Ole Miss, the Rebels used one personnel package on 97 percent of their snaps -- making it easier for the Crimson Tide to set up its defense. Texas A&M, with Jimbo Fisher as coach, offers multiple looks and should challenge the Alabama as a result.

arlier this month, Nick Saban took a little time out of his day to catch one of his former teams in action.

As Michigan State was on its way to losing by a field goal to Arizona State, the Alabama coach noticed something unusual, yet all so familiar to those raised in a bygone era of three yards and a cloud of dust.

"I saw Michigan State get in a huddle the other night," Saban said. "I think that's the first team I've seen get in a huddle in college football since the flood."

Saban was exaggerating, of course. But he was making a point, noting how the sport has changed with the proliferation of hurry-up offenses operating at breakneck speed in order to maximize the number of plays being run, and in turn, the opportunities to score.

But lost in the sprint to the line of scrimmage to get the snap off are some of the elements in football that once were taken for granted: The rotation of personnel packages, motions that change the balance of formations and adjustments made by the quarterback before the center delivers him the ball.

Last Saturday, as Alabama squeezed Ole Miss' high-octane offense during a 62-7 victory, the Rebels presented a slight variation of the same look over and over again while pushing the tempo. According to ProFootballFocus.com, on 61 of their 63 snaps, Ole Miss deployed three receivers, one tight end and a running back, a package known as 11 -- or as Alabama calls it, "blue" -- personnel. Rarely did the Rebels try to disguise their sets by re-positioning a player from one side to the other before the play began.

After all, that kind of motion takes time and Ole Miss' offense is an impatient one. But as Ole Miss raced against the clock, the Rebels didn't go very far. They gained only 248 yards and didn't score in the final 59 minutes, 49 seconds.

It wasn't all that surprising, really. After all, their offense played into Saban's hands by remaining wedded to one personnel grouping and doing little to mask the presentation of it.

"That makes the adjustments a little easier," Saban acknowledged.

In many ways, that's because Saban's pattern-reading coverage system starts with identifying the number of receivers positioned to each side of the line, whether it's one, two or three. Then a symphony of sorts unfolds during which the defenders carry out their assignments, adapting based off the routes being run and the releases of the players they are guarding.

"Once we get the play, we look at the formation the offense gives us and we go off of that," said Alabama defensive back Shyheim Carter.

The easier the clues the more prepared the Crimson Tide will be to neutralize the opposing offense's scheme. Like Ole Miss, Arkansas State carried a hurry-up attack into its matchup with Alabama earlier this month. In 2017, only two teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision averaged more plays per game than the Red Wolves. But as was the case with Ole Miss, Arkansas State didn't do much against Alabama, netting only a touchdown in a 50-point loss to the Tide.

Interestingly enough, the Red Wolves' lone score came when a running back motioned across the formation prior to the snap, which took Carter out of the play and gave receiver Kendrick Edwards the opening to singe the Tide's defense on the 23-yard catch. Yet the pre-snap movement was a rare occurrence for the Red Wolves, who spent 98 percent of their time on offense in 11 and 10 personnel -- a grouping that has four wideouts and no tight ends.

"The faster you go, you do limit yourself as far as looks, motions, things," said Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher, whose team will face Alabama this Saturday. "Now, you can do them. But how much you do it depends on how fast you want to go. But that is becoming a lost art as far as that goes because of how fast people want to go."

Fisher, a former Saban assistant, isn't consumed with tempo. In 2017, his final season at Florida State, the Seminoles were the fourth-slowest team in the FBS, according to Football Outsiders' adjusted pace rankings. The year before, they took an average of 27.8 seconds between snaps, an unusually long period in this day and age.

Yet the time expended served a purpose, allowing Fisher to interchange tight ends, receivers and wideouts to mix up the formations and keep the defense on its heels. In A&M's surprisingly close 28-26 loss to Clemson on Sept. 8, the Aggies used seven different personnel packages -- running the gamut from a four-receiver set to one with two running backs and a pair of tight ends.

"They're very multiple in terms of...lots of formations, motions, adjustments," Saban said.

It's the kind of pro-style scheme Saban has long preferred because he knows it can challenge any defense, including the one he's fashioned.

In the first two games, Alabama's own offense used six different personnel groupings and a variety of formations while tight end Irv Smith Jr. set up in 11 different spots both on the line of scrimmage and off it.

"Some plays I have a linebacker guarding me, a safety, an outside linebacker," Smith said. "I will be blocking a defensive end. I am moving all over the field. It's a lot of fun and it's tough for the defense."

Smith's A&M counterpart, Jace Sternberger, knows. He has already produced ten catches -- three more receptions than the Aggies' collection of tight ends contributed in all of 2017, when Fisher's predecessor, Kevin Sumlin, was running a fastbreak offense and preferred alignments featuring four receivers or more.

"You have to change formations, personnels and do different things against anybody," Fisher said.

That's especially true when matching wits with Saban, a coach who would prefer to eliminate the guessing game.

On Wednesday, as he saw something different in the room where he conducts his weekly news conferences, he made note of the aberration.

With a smile, he said, "I don't respond well to change."

But come this Saturday, while facing Fisher's Aggies, he knows he must find a way.

Why Texas A&M won't play into Alabama's hands like Ole Miss did
 
I listened to Billy Lucci on tide1029 the other day, he said he believes TSMU will be one 3 or 4 toughest opponents. I wondered how quick it took him to come to this conclusion after looking at the schedule. At this point, its TAMU, LSU, Miss St, and Auburn that would be only contendors from a regular season perspective.
 
Some of you guys might be familiar with the Internet personna of Art Vandelay. He's had some great A&M posts over the years. Here's two, the first from 2016 and the second from this season

2016:

It's Aggie time again! Time to fret and worry about how the Aggies will test our team! Because Johnny Football beat us that one time, and scared us really badly the next, we have been concerned every year that somehow his karma would carry them to victory. Or at least within 20 points of it. This year is different, though. They started playing defense, for one thing. Not all of their guys can tackle really well yet, but this could be the Saturday where it all comes together. They get a lot of fumbles, too.
They also drafted a legendary bane of SuperBama's existence - Trevor "Krypto" Knight.

You remember. During that one season he was all like:

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But then against US in the Sugar Bowl he was all like:

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And he can do this, too:
Going right up the middle vs. Arkansas
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Maybe we should be a little apprehensive.

12th Man. Blah, blah, blah...everybody knows about the 12th Man. He's the best player on their team after Kirk, actually. Enough about the stupid 12th man. They may have invented it, but Arkansas perfected it.

Aggie Ring Day. There is a day each year where Aggies get rings just for being Aggies. Many other institutions encourage the wearing of a ring to symbolize affinity, but few (auburn) take it to the gauche levels that A&M seems to achieve with every mundane thing that they do. Ring day is a BFD: you need a ticket to get in, you can get your picture made, you can buy a commemorative T-Shirt, and there's free sausage as long as it lasts.
Ring Day FAQs

A delightful Ring Day tradition is the "Ring Dunk". Take a look at this short documentary video.
After a quick glance around to see if a cop or Jesus happens to be nearby, the instigator hands "Megan" a pitcher of beer. She drops her ring in there and begins drinking.



***Shortly following the ceremony and largely because of it, a future Texas A&M Aggie will be conceived. The cycle continues.

What the heck is this?
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The Village People meet Deliverance. Only we are pretty sure that "The Sharecropper" was not a village person character.
They have these hillbilly concerts before every game, but instead of playing music, the slack-jaws on stage contort their bodies and make Farmers-Only gang signs while the audience yells at them. It's supposed to help the team win. Seems to work pretty good for half a season.

A&M is the only school with their own Army, except for Army. And you wouldn't even know Army is the Army, because they don't dress like they're about to go "over there" and give the Kaiser what-for. They just wear plain gray doorman/greeter uniforms and cheer politely. These A&M guys though...

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You thought this kind of thing ended with the demise of fascism in 1945. No so fast my friend, the jack-booted thug is alive and well in 2016. OK, maybe just the jack boots. We can't be too sure about the thug part...
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"State Trooper: The Musical"

After all, that isn't a German Shepherd or Rottweiler there in the first picture. It's Lassie. Who is afraid of Lassie? What is she going to do, shed on you? No, Lassie will help you if you fall into a well. Lassie will bark to alert you to trouble at the old mill. Lassie has fabulous hair. So...you have these guys in tight pants with high leather boots escorted by a dog with fabulous hair. Totally nothing wrong with that. Don't judge them.

If they want you to bake a wedding cake, just do it.

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Love wins.

Maybe Alabama will, too. If we're lucky.
 
2018

It’s here!

TEXAS A&M WEEK!

This is the week in which we get to explore the wild, weird, wonderful world that is Texas A&M. Their rich heritage and vibrant culture truly makes college football interesting and fun. It’s as if the Scientologists had a football team! Let’s revisit some of the things that make TAMU great in a non-championship way.

If you have a link to previous year’s summaries, take a look at that because time and space would not allow us to fully explore or repeat ourselves in this one.

TEAM NAME

They are “The Aggies”. If you don’t know what an Aggie is, it’s short for “Agricultural”. That’s from the Latin for “Hick”. If you grew up in Albertville, you’d know that their team is also called the Aggies, but the symbol for the team was Satan and their colors are red and black. As a child, I thought that an Aggie was something demonic until I found out that the school used to be an agricultural college**. A&M does not have an additional team name, they are simply the Aggies, but that does not keep them from engaging in cultic practices. They had a guy once who apparently sold his soul to the devil:

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“The boy said,’My name’s Johnny, and it might be a sin…but you’re gonna regret - I’ll take your bet ‘cause I’m the best that’s ever been.’ ”

Never, ever do that. Satan always collects, just ask Johnny.
The sparkler thing, either. That’s dangerous.

**. That doesn’t explain why they adopted the lord of darkness as their mascot and have the same colors as are worn in a Black Mass, unless you actually need human sacrifice to insure a good year for soybeans.

MASCOT

This topic is fun to discuss because they are another confused team when it comes to the art of mascotry. Well, really – how do you depict an “Aggie”? A guy in overalls with a hoe?

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“Aggska, Oogska, Aggieteers! Aggie cartoon time now is here!”

Oh wait…Looks like they have that. Perhaps that Hee-Haw/Howdy Doody hand sign they’re making is a depiction of a farm implement. Post hole diggers, maybe.

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They have a beautiful collie dog (left),

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but it doesn’t belong to the football team. It belongs to their army, but the soldiers(?) bring it to all of their home games. If you were a foreigner watching them play a home game on TV, and you didn’t know they were the Aggies, you might think they were “The Collies”. Or “The Forest Rangers”.

You remember this:
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“State Trooper: The Musical” Sorry. It just never gets old.

We don’t know what the towel is for, and we should not ask.

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But they should not be waving it around at the games, because that’s how diseases are spread.

Well, it’s fun to talk about their fake Army, but be careful around those guys just the same. They don’t carry those swords just for show. An SMU cheerleader tried to pet their dog once…



This cadet went allez! on him in a Harlem heartbeat. Zorro there probably could have taken out their entire cheerleading squad if that other unarmed cheerleader hadn’t pushed him down in the middle of his feint. Cheap-shot cheerleading biatches, picking on a semi-soldier with a sword like that. Cheerleaders smile a lot, but they can be really mean sometimes.

FOOTBALL TEAM

These guys are actually pretty good. We can’t stress this enough – they NEARLY beat CLEMSON. That’s right. CLEMSON, that unstoppable juggernaut of the ACC, who has the best defensive line since Cemetery Ridge. Who has a backup QB who should be starting, and we of all people know how great that is. Yes, CLEMSON. And they ALMOST won! In contrast, Bama has only played deformed also-rans, letting them hang around in the game until the middle of the 1st quarter. We have not played CLEMSON.
Since last year.
In the playoff.
Where we crushed them.
With our current backup QB starting and playing the whole game.
But, you know, our defense…blah blah blah. Right.

TAMU’s QB, Kellen Mond

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(pregame photo, in happier times.)
is actually pretty good sometimes. Dual threat, can make all the throws, coach on the field, all the physical tools, yadda yadda.
Do not sell this guy short. He is 6’2”. And he can move quickly out of the pocket, as you will see many times on Saturday. His passing is 62.9% for 824 yds this season.

HEAD COACH

Jimbo Fisher.

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We know him. Lots of Bama fans think of him personally as a vulgar redneck rube, but he is one of Coach Saban’s favorite former assistants. Maybe. If he has any such thing. One of the most prolific branches of the Saban coaching tree, he took FSU to a national championship before running them into the ground and leaving for TAMU. You may have heard a rumor that he is called “Slim Jimbo” because he loves meat snacks and wants to start a company making jerky out of muskrats, alligators, and other indigenous southern animals. It’s not true, but it’s kind of believable. Who knew Jimbo Fisher was Stump’s father? (also not true. probably.)

Too bad, because you can totally picture it:

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Here’s how they are doing as a team so far.

(sorry, chart will not display for some reason)

Not too shabby. In fact, they have just about the right amount of shab to make this interesting.
Don’t be surprised if they hang up to 20 points on our still rebuilding and green defense who has not even played CLEMSON.

STADIUM

They are coming to our house this year, but you have to talk about their house to understand where they are coming from.

They say difficult venues for visiting teams must be built over an old Indian graveyard. Texas A&M’s is likely built over where they used to bury circus animals and clowns.
Not that it isn’t hard to play there, it is; but it’s not so much the hostility as it is…weirdness. You got this pseudo-Army waving their towels of shame. You got the entirety of the home team fans standing for the whole game, even octogenarian Gene Stallings, who had to be held up. You got your 12th man (that did NOT work when Louisville tried it earlier this year). You got the Hoedown Honeys all-male cheerleading squad flashing hand signals and doing contortions to tell the dirtnecks what to holler. You got people saying “Howdy! Howdy! Howdy!” outside the stadium, but once inside they want your head on a pike. You got this collie dog wearing a baby blanket running around for no apparent reason.

Double-You-Tee-Eff, man.

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It looks like a funnel emptying into an alternate reality. Which is exactly what it is.

They have cheerleaders, but trust me, you don’t want to see that. Instead, here are the USC song girls.

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So you just gotta see?

You really want to see?

OK, here:

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(photo courtesy the site it was stolen from)

At least they’re wearing gloves while holding the towel.

Here’s hoping Bama can get by this team who almost beat CLEMSON without any injuries!

Have fun watching.
 
Here's something I've found interesting about the Mond vs Tua comparisons. These numbers have been broken down to percentages and I'll break that down a bit more.

In terms of passing yard totals 47% of Tua's came through the air, 53% of those yards came after the catch. Mond is quite a bit different with 65% of his passing yards being in the air while his receivers accounted for 35% with yards after the catch.

I like the way it breaks down for Tua and Bama's receivers. We're looking at touchdowns where both Tua and the receivers are literally each doing half of the work (for lack of a better way to put that.)

Here's a graph that breaks down the conference. It's a horrible CSS choice they've made which has made it a little difficult to read.

 
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