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252BAMA

AKA: ALA2262
Member
Current projection consists of 242 ballots and 658 votes. Their next update will be their largest sampling ever, and they have been able to correctly predict all 7 of the previous winners with smaller samplings.

For example:

In 2007, we found 249 actual declared ballots that included 685 votes and we projected correctly the top four in order - Tim Tebow, Darren McFadden, Colt Brennan, Chase Daniel. 2007 details.
In 2008, we found 249 actual declared ballots that included 670 votes and we correctly projected that Sam Bradford would win - while Tim Tebow would get the most first-place votes. 2008 details.


http://www.stiffarmtrophy.com/
 
I just visited the site and it read that they would make their projection tomorrow. In fact they were still seeking help tracking down more ballots.

The trend over the last 24 hours has been Ingram taking the lead from TG, then slowly and steadily increasing the lead.

Oddly, they reported this morning that the geographic region with the largest percent of unaccounted for ballots was the Northeast. I'll let you come to your own conclusion as to which of the candidates that most favors. But I will add that Ingram playing in the East, and on TV more than the other candidates, must count for something as compared to TG who kicked off three hours later out west. Ingram has a Game-of-the Week a month, while TG has to rely on Sports Center and box scores to wow the voters.
 
"In 2002, we projected Carson Palmer as the winner, and Brad Banks as the runner-up based on 127 actual ballots declared. We had the top five correct (though we had Larry Johnson at #5, not #3.) "

He did that with a sampling of less than HALF of what he has now. Which is 277 ballots and 765 votes with MI projected to win by 1K points!
 
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Looks like now that he may wimp out and not make a final projection. This from the comment section:

"So I thought you'd have the projection this morning? Aren't you at least going to take a guess?? :)"

Well, I'm pulling together the morning's numbers now. For me, the most important thing was to figure out how close is "too close to call."
 
mark-ingram-heisman-14f34bb5582eecab_large.jpg


I really believe that we're getting our first heisman trophey tonight. Roll Tide!
 
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