🏈 GAME THREAD ⭐ Arkansas vs Alabama ⭐
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Bama News
Alabama vs. Arkansas odds, line: 2019 College football picks, predictions from computer on 92-59 run
SportsLine's advanced computer model simulated Saturday's Arkansas vs. Alabama game 10,000 times.
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The No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide will look to continue their winning ways when they host the Arkansas Razorbacks in an SEC West Division college football matchup on Saturday. The Crimson Tide (7-0), who lead the SEC West, are 4-0 at home, while the Razorbacks (2-5), who are in seventh place in the division at 0-4, are winless on the road. Kickoff from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa is set for 7 p.m. ET. The Crimson Tide are averaging 48.7 points per game, while the Razorbacks are scoring an average of 24.7. The Tide are 31.5-point favorites in the latest Alabama vs. Arkansas odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 56. Before making any Arkansas vs. Alabama picks of your own, see the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen huge returns. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of over $4,200 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread.
The model enters Week 9 of the 2019 season on a strong run, going 92-59 on its top-rated college football picks. It also called Illinois (+30.5) easily staying within the spread against No. 6 Wisconsin last week in one of the largest upsets of the entire season. Anybody who has been following it is way up.
Now, the model has simulated Arkansas vs. Alabama 10,000 times. We can tell you it's leaning over, and it's also generated an against the spread pick that cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. That one is only available at SportsLine.
The model knows Alabama continues to be the envy of college football, compiling a 912-329-43 all-time record. The Crimson Tide have won 17 national championships, most in the nation, and are 153-21 in 13 years under coach Nick Saban, including 11-5 in bowl games.
Alabama junior quarterback and Heisman Trophy candidate Tua Tagovailoa is out against Arkansas after suffering a high ankle sprain last week against Tennessee. In his stead, Mac Jones was 6-of-11 for 72 yards, while Alabama running back Najee Harris averaged five yards per carry and scored twice. Alabama forced two Tennessee turnovers and posted three sacks.
But just because the Tide have dominated its opponents so far this season does not guarantee they will cover the Alabama vs. Arkansas spread on Saturday.
That's because the Razorbacks also have a proud tradition, having compiled a 717-509-40 all-time record. Arkansas has won one national championship (1964), 13 conference titles and four division crowns. The Razorbacks have also qualified for 42 bowl games, the last coming in 2016.
The Arkansas offense has been led by junior running back Rakeem Boyd, who has carried 119 times for 656 yards and five touchdowns. He has had three games where he has rushed for 114 yards or more. He had a big game against the Crimson Tide last season, rushing 15 times for 102 yards and catching five passes for 24 yards.
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Bama News
Tide Sports: Local News, Politics & Sports in Tuscaloosa, AL
The latest Alabama Crimson Tide sports news, scores and schedules
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Arkansas at No. 1 Alabama
When: 6 p.m. Saturday
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium
Records: Alabama 7-0, 4-0 SEC; Arkansas 2-5, 0-4 SEC
TV: ESPN
Radio: 95.3 FM, 102.9 FM
THE CALL
By Edwin Stanton
OFFENSE
Advantage: Alabama
Take away its starting QB and Alabama is still in good hands with Henry Ruggs and Co. Mac Jones will be better prepared after a full week knowing he’s the starter. Arkansas has its own QB issues and are not sure who will start.
DEFENSE
Advantage: Alabama
More than halfway through the season the Tide is starting to grow an identity. There is still work to be done but with Terrell Lewis and Trevon Diggs stepping up, the Tide is poised for a big day against a struggling Arkansas team.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Advantage: Alabama
Ty Perine has one heck of a punting debut last week and will most likely get a chance for an encore performance today. Connor Limpert has made four field goals for Arkansas from 40-plus yards.
COACHING
Advantage: Alabama
The Crimson Tide running game has looked strong of late under the direction of Charles Huff, which backs averaging 166 yards a game and 5.1 yards per carry. Arkansas just hasn’t been able to get it going under Chad Morris this year.
INTANGIBLES
Advantage: Alabama
The new lights at Bryant-Denny Stadium were a big hit last week and fans will get to enjoy the show again against Arkansas. A night game in Tuscaloosa, with a light show to boot, will have the crowd raring to go.
PREDICTION
Alabama 35, Arkansas 13
Arkansas has not won an SEC game since midway through the 2017 season. Times are tough in Fayetteville and it’s not going to magically get better simply because the starting quarterback for No. 1 team in the nation isn’t playing. There are too many other bullets in that offensive gun for Alabama.
STAFF PICKS
Tommy DiCostanzo
Alabama 48,
Arkansas 10
It’s been a tough season for the Razorbacks, with their only two wins coming against Portland State and Colorado State. Just last week they were blown out 51-10 against Auburn. A Tua-less offense will be less explosive but it shouldn’t stop the Tide from covering the spread.
Brett Hudson
Alabama 34,
Arkansas 13
Time will tell us if Mac Jones is good enough to be a championship-level starting quarterback for Alabama in 2020, but no time is needed to tell us Jones is good enough to lead this year’s Alabama team past Arkansas. Then the waiting begins for Game of the Century Part II.
Cecil Hurt
Alabama 44,
Arkansas 11
Rain is likely. The starting quarterback is out. Given these depressing events, who is the Homecoming entertainment? Morrissey? At least there is a walk-on punter to cheer until the Sun becomes a red giant and consumes the solar system.
Tyler Martin
Alabama 41,
Arkansas 10
Without Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama should rely heavily on the running game with Najee Harris and Brian Robinson. Look for Mac Jones to get the ball into the hands of the Crimson Tide’s elite receivers when he has to. No Tua, no problem for now.
James Ogletree
Alabama 45,
Arkansas 10
Mac Jones has been patiently waiting behind two Heisman trophy candidates in the Alabama quarterback room over the last few years and will have his opportunity to shine this week. Arkansas is coming off a blowout loss to Auburn and could experience more of the same against the Tide on Saturday.
Carey Reeder
Alabama 31,
Arkansas 3
The absence of Tua will hamper the Alabama offense and slow things down. Expect a lot of Najee Harris on the ground and the game to be controlled by the Crimson Tide defense.
Michael Southern
Alabama 34,
Arkansas 16
Alabama’s offense won’t get thrown back into the three yards and a cloud of dust era, but expect the Crimson Tide to lean more on Najee Harris and Brian Robinson. The new offensive line with Deonte Brown should provide enough strength up front to handle the underperforming Razorbacks.
Katie Windham
Alabama 45,
Arkansas 10
Mac Jones has been patiently waiting behind two Heisman trophy candidates in the Alabama quarterback room over the last few years has his opportunity to shine. Arkansas is coming off a blowout loss to Auburn and could experience more of the same against the Tide.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
By Carey Reeder
ALABAMA
Ty Perine
Position: Punter
Height: 6-1
Weight: 190
Class: Freshman
Key Stat: Kicked two punts in the win over Tennessee; 42- and 51- yards, respectively
Buzz: The Alabama ranks second-to-last in the nation, averaging 35.94 yards per punt. The 575 total yards this season ranks dead-last in the nation. Alabama might have found its solution in Perine. The Prattville, native and preferred walk-on earned his first chance to punt against Tennessee and didn’t disappoint making the decision to come to Tuscaloosa.
Alex Leatherwood
Position: Offensive line
Height: 6-6
Weight: 310
Class: Junior
Key Stat: Started all 15 games for Alabama last season
Buzz: A mainstay in the offensive line, Leatherwood moved from right guard where he played last season back to his more natural position of left tackle this year. After starting the season shaky, the offensive line has gained more traction and Leatherwood and company will be important in protecting backup quarterback Mac Jones making his first career start.
Byron Young
Position: Defensive line
Height: 6-3
Weight: 295
Class: Freshman
Key Stat: Eight tackles over his last three games, including three against Tennessee.
Buzz: Yet another impressive freshman defensive linemen is making his presence felt. Young has 13 tackles this season but has played his best during the last three games recording those eight tackles. Having this many effective linemen for defensive coordinator Pete Golding is a luxury. The best part is they’re mostly freshmen who will be on campus for the next few years.
ARKANSAS
De’Jon Harris
Position: Linebacker
Height: 6-0
Weight: 245
Class: Senior
Key Stat: Leads the Arkansas defense in tackles this season with 54
Buzz: Harris is playing his best football of the season recording double-digit tackles in back-to-back games for and added a forced fumble against No.11 Auburn last week. Harris has been one of the lone bright spots on a struggling Razorbacks defense. With the Alabama running game coming into its own, Harris will be key in stopping any advances on the ground.
Rakeem Boyd
Position: Running back
Height: 6-0
Weight: 213
Class: Junior
Key Stat: Led Arkansas in rushing last season with 734 yards
Buzz: Boyd is on pace to blow his rushing total from last season out of the water. With 656 yards through seven games Boyd is chasing his first 1,000-yard season. The Houston, native has added five touchdown runs to his tally but posted his worst performance against No. 11 Auburn with just 39 yards. If Arkansas is to stay with Alabama, Boyd will have to be effective.
Jamario Bell
Position: Defensive line
Height: 6-5
Weight: 265
Class: Senior
Key Stat: Leads the Razorback defense in sacks with 3.5
Buzz: Bell has played in four games, making the 3.5 sacks even more impressive. Bell has been battling a knee injury that has kept him sidelined, including last week against Auburn. Bell has had only one true season to contribute and that was last year where he recorded 20 tackles and forced one fumble. Pressure from the edge on new starter Mac Jones could give the Crimson Tide some problems upfront.
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Bama News
Razorbacks at a low ebb for game against No. 1 Crimson Tide
Loyal Hog fans are down to trying to enjoy the play of a few individual skilled players who have had moments to shine despite the overall woes faced by the team.
www.fayettevilleflyer.com
Remember back three or four months ago when you just couldn’t wait for football season?
Yeah, I do too. What were we thinking?
Remember that old TV show “Thirtysomething?” Did you ever think it would be the point spread for a Razorback football game?
Neither did I.
Well, I guess there have been other times when the Hogs were 32-point underdogs, but I don’t remember it.
Either way Razorback fans and the program they support are enduring epically bad times. The Hogs are 2-5 on the season and 0-4 in SEC. The Razorbacks’ SEC losing streak is up to 15 and unless the sky falls, it will be at 16 on Sunday.
No one outside the Razorback locker room believes the Hogs can win at 6 p.m. Saturday when they play No. 1 Alabama (7-0, 5-0) in an ESPN-televised game, and its doubtful if anyone in the Razorback locker room believes they can win either.
Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is out for the game with a high ankle sprain. That will be of consequence if he is still injured in two weeks when Alabama faces No. 2 LSU, but it’s of no real consequence Saturday.
If the Razorback can’t get out their own way enough to beat San Jose State or Kentucky, Tagovailoa’s absence isn’t going to slow Alabama down that much. That’s how great of a talent and coaching disparity there is going into the game.
Most teams of Arkansas’ ability level get a $500,000 to a million-dollar check to play Alabama. All Arkansas’ going to get is the opportunity to host the Crimson Tide next season, when in all likelihood they’ll be ranked in the top five again.
Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban probably could sit all of his starters and still beat the bedraggled Razorbacks handily.
Word that two of the Razorbacks’ starting offensive linemen — left tackle Colton Jackson and left guard Austin Capps — are injured and can’t play only makes matters more difficult. Both are seniors. It might be a good move for Arkansas to move forward with its younger players anyway.
Loyal Hog fans are down to trying to enjoy the play of a few individual skilled players who have had moments to shine despite the overall woes faced by the team.
Treylon Burks and Trey Knox are special freshmen at wide receiver, who have both flashed NFL potential. Hog fans need to enjoy them while they can. Same can be said for tight end C.J. O’Grady. It’s taken some time for the Fayetteville native to capitalize on his potential, but he’s gotten close under some difficult situations in his senior year. Likewise, junior running back Rakeem Boyd is a bright spot, who has run hard despite some tough going this year.
Even in last week’s 51-10 thumping by Auburn, that quartet made plays that stood out. They’ll likely do that against Alabama on Saturday, too.
On the defensive side of the ball, I enjoy watching the all-out effort of safety Cam Curl and linebacker Bumper Pool, as well as the pride and Arkansas spirit that backup linebackers Hayden Henry and Grant Morgan display. They aren’t the only Razorback defenders that have given their all this year, but they are the ones that pop to mind at this moment.
After this weekend, Arkansas’ schedule lets up a little bit. Oh, there’s still a trip to Baton Rouge to face No. 2 LSU on Nov. 23, but I still hold out hope for victories over Mississippi State on Nov. 2, Western Kentucky on Nov. 9 in Fayetteville, and maybe even against Missouri on Nov. 29 in Little Rock.
The Tigers, who are under a one-year bowl ban for a tutor completing coursework for student athletes, are going to treat the game like a bowl. The Hogs might as well do it, too.
I look forward to seeing freshman quarterback K.J. Jefferson play next week after his red-shirt year essentially ends Saturday night. Razorback coach Chad Morris needs to give him some playing time to in each of the final four games for the good of the program and the young man.
He may not be totally ready to play, but getting him time on the field should only enhance the progress he hopefully is already making in practice. Jefferson’s not the only freshmen that needs some playing time. Anyone that has a decent shot at seeing some playing time next season needs to get some in-game reps. Every position coach should understand that and abide by it, even if it is only on special teams.
Seeing those young men play and improve is something that fans should be able to look forward to in a season in which some Hog fans have lost reason to fill their seats at Razorback and War Memorial stadiums.
I’m not saying the seniors should be totally cast to the side, but in a sense, the 2020 season for the Razorbacks should begin next week.
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SEC Sports
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TUSCALOOSA, Ala. (AP) — Alabama’s mantra of “Next man up” for overcoming injuries will be put to the test this week against Arkansas.
With injured quarterback Tua Tagovailoa out, sophomore Mac Jones is in.
The top-ranked Crimson Tide will turn to Jones on Saturday night against Arkansas as Tagovailoa is sidelined with a right ankle injury. Jones must go from unknown understudy to one of college football’s stars to leading man — at least for one game.
“Mac’s got to be the leader of the team,” Alabama coach Nick Saban said. “He’s got to take over the team. When you’re the backup player, you’re a little bit like the sparring partner, but you can’t be that anymore.
“You’re the lead fighter. You’re the top dog. You’ve got to do things with confidence. You’ve got to take command. You can’t have bad body language in front of your teammates, regardless of what happens.”
Alabama (7-0, 4-0 Southeastern Conference) remains a 32-point favorite over the Razorbacks (2-5, 0-4), who are coming off a 51-10 loss to No. 9 Auburn. One of the main questions outside the team has already been whether Tagovailoa will return for a Nov. 9 showdown with No. 2 LSU after an open date.
But first things first for Alabama.
Jones gets center stage for a change after replacing Tagovailoa in the second quarter against Tennessee.
“I’ve got as much faith in Mac as I’ve got in any quarterback here,” Alabama tight end Miller Forristall said.
Arkansas coach Chad Morris knows the challenge remains large with Jones starting.
“There’s not many deficiencies on that football team,” said Morris, who is still seeking his first SEC win. “Mac Jones came in the other night, and they’ll do a great job of preparing a plan for him to do what he can execute and execute at a high level.
He’s got a great supporting cast around him.”
Some other things to know heading into the Arkansas-Alabama matchup Saturday:
ARKANSAS QB
Morris hadn’t announced a starting quarterback for the game at mid-week. Ben Hicks started against Auburn but has a sore left shoulder. Hicks has split time with Nick Starkel.
NEW PUNTER?
Placekicker/punter Will Reichard aggravated a hip injury while handling just punting duties in the Tennessee game and isn’t expected to play. Alabama had struggled with punting this season, but walk-on Ty Perine made an impression with both his punts and a tackle on a return.
Perine got a big reaction after punting for 42 and 51 yards and making the tackle on the second one.
“You got the reaction from the crowd as soon as the ball was in the air, so I knew it was a good kick,” Tide receiver Henry Ruggs III said. “But I definitely didn’t think it was going that far.”
HONORING 2009 TEAM
Alabama will honor the 2009 national championship team before the game. It remains the only unbeaten season for Saban as a head coach. Four of that team’s stars will be serving as honorary captains: Javier Arenas, Mark Ingram, Mike Johnson and Rolando McClain.
FRESHMEN GALORE
Alabama is tied with UMass for the national lead with eight freshmen having started games, including six on defense. Five freshmen have started for the Razorbacks.
NOT TAULIA TIME
Saban bristled at a question over whether he wanted to get freshman quarterback Tualia Tagovailoa, Tua’s little brother, into the game.
“We’re focused on winning the game, so we’re going to try to win the game, and we’re going to play the best players that we can play to win the game,” Saban said. “And we’re not assuming that it’s going to be an easy game, and we’re not assuming that we’ll have an opportunity just to play anybody that wants to play, to expedite anything except winning the game. So, we’re going to play everybody who can expedite winning the game, that’s what we’re going to do.”
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