Max
Member
Step 1:
Know the stated criteria - Committee Criteria
Step 2:
Understand the metrics that will be used - these are not all the metrics that the committee might use, but strength of schedule, schedule of record, and game control are highly predictive of the teams that will be selected.
So, know these numbers and what they mean: Highly predictive metrics
Step 3:
Know and understand the history and precedents that have been set so far:
(1) Losses matter. An additional loss is more important than a conference championship or conference affiliation
(2) Conference championships do matter however for comparable teams with comparable metrics and records
(3) Two teams can get in from the same conference
(4) Late season losses are a barrier to entry however there is at least one instance of it happening and a team still making the playoff
(5) No 1 loss non-champion has gotten in over a 1 loss P5 champion. This one might be tested this year. There have actually been relatively few opportunities for it to even happen up until now (3 or 4)
(6) ~40% of the teams making the first rankings do not make the last rankings
(7) The committee will reorder the top 8 the last week after the championship games regardless of where teams were ranked prior to that point. A certain ranking in week 14 is not guaranteed in week 15 even with a win.
There are a few others, but I'm too lazy to type anymore on this one.
Step 4
Understand our bar to cross now - which is that we must show that we are "unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country". "Unequivocally" is obviously open to much interpretation and will be why the metrics referenced above will be key (along with the subjective eye test).
Know the stated criteria - Committee Criteria
Step 2:
Understand the metrics that will be used - these are not all the metrics that the committee might use, but strength of schedule, schedule of record, and game control are highly predictive of the teams that will be selected.
So, know these numbers and what they mean: Highly predictive metrics
Step 3:
Know and understand the history and precedents that have been set so far:
(1) Losses matter. An additional loss is more important than a conference championship or conference affiliation
(2) Conference championships do matter however for comparable teams with comparable metrics and records
(3) Two teams can get in from the same conference
(4) Late season losses are a barrier to entry however there is at least one instance of it happening and a team still making the playoff
(5) No 1 loss non-champion has gotten in over a 1 loss P5 champion. This one might be tested this year. There have actually been relatively few opportunities for it to even happen up until now (3 or 4)
(6) ~40% of the teams making the first rankings do not make the last rankings
(7) The committee will reorder the top 8 the last week after the championship games regardless of where teams were ranked prior to that point. A certain ranking in week 14 is not guaranteed in week 15 even with a win.
There are a few others, but I'm too lazy to type anymore on this one.
Step 4
Understand our bar to cross now - which is that we must show that we are "unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country". "Unequivocally" is obviously open to much interpretation and will be why the metrics referenced above will be key (along with the subjective eye test).
