🏈 SEC Championship: UA vs UF (Sat game thread)
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planomateo
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Five predictions for Alabama's SEC Championship Game matchup against Florida at the Georgia Dome on Saturday (3 p.m. CT/CBS).
UF quarterback Treon Harris will have at least three passes deflected by UA defensive linemen
Harris is listed at 5-foot-11, which may be an inch or two generous.
Between Harris' struggles to find passing lanes from the pocket and an offensive line that started a pair of true freshmen at the guard spots a week ago, Alabama defensive linemen Jarran Reed, A'Shawn Robinson, Dalvin Tomlinson and Jonathan Allen should be able to affect Harris in ways that don't involve sacks.
Between them, the quartet has 14 pass breakups to the their credit this season. That's why you've heard Alabama coach Nick Saban talk about pushing the pocket this week. Get pressure in Harris' face and a guy who entered the week having completed just 54 percent of his passes will have an even more difficult time delivering accurate throws.
Derrick Henry will become the SEC's single-season rusher
Henry heads to Atlanta with a school-record 1,797 rushing yards in tow. He'll make his way back to Tuscaloosa with the SEC single-season mark -- which currently belongs to Herschel Walker (1,891 yards in 1981) -- in his back pocket.
The question is, how much more than the 95 yards Henry needs to eclipse Walker's mark will Henry produce?
If he goes for 200-plus for the fifth time in the last seven games, he'll likely blow past the 2,000-yard mark, which takes me back to something Henry's high school coach told me back in the preseason.
"I think he's going to go for over 2,000 yards if they don't hold him back," said Bobby Ramsay, who spent four years watching Henry amass a national-record 12,124 rushing yards for Yulee (Fla.) High School. "Especially with the pistol stuff they're doing. It really fits his style and he can handle the workload. I'm biased, but I think he can do it."
Alabama offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin hasn't held Henry back of late. There's no reason to think that will change this week.
UF will rush for less than 80 yards
The Gators currently rank 13th in the SEC in rushing offense (137 yards per game). Meanwhile, Alabama ranks first in the league in rushing defense, allowing just 79 yards per contest.
To his credit, UF running back Kelvin Taylor has managed to rush for nearly 1,000 yards while working behind an offensive line that features a Fordham transfer and plenty of youth. The 2015 season has been a 180 for Taylor, who, prior to the arrival of first-year head coach Jim McElwain, often times ran without concern for scheme or much of a finish.
After giving up 90 first-half rushing yards to Auburn a week ago, the Crimson Tide limited the Tigers to a single yard on the ground in the second half. Taylor, who rushed for more than 100 yards in games against South Carolina, Florida Atlantic and Florida State, won't be completely shutdown on Saturday. But he won't go for more than 100 yards for a fourth-straight game, either.
Punters will keep offenses on the long field
If turnover margin is close to even, the game's two punters -- JK Scott and Johnny Townsend -- are both capable of making the offenses earn it. Townsend enters the game averaging 44.2 yards per punt, while Scott checks in at 43.4.
Separation between the two comes in where the all-important net average is concerned. It's there where Townsend and UF hold nearly a six-yard edge on Scott and Alabama. Opponents are averaging just 3 yards per return against the Gators.
As for Scott, his 36.2-yard net average this season is 8.5 yards per punt lower than it was during his stellar freshman campaign. The dip isn't as much a knock on what Scott has done this season as it is a testament to how great he was in 2014.
Alabama will win the game by a score of 24-9
If it feels a little like 2008 to McElwain, it's certainly understandable.
As Alabama's first-year offensive coordinator that year, McElwain was handed the unenviable task of producing enough points to give the Crimson Tide a chance to pull off an upset of Florida.
That UA offense wasn't loaded with playmakers but it did have two things McElwain's first Florida offense doesn't: a strong run-blocking line led by tackle Andre Smith and a veteran quarterback in John Parker Wilson who fit McElwain's offense pretty well.
Unlike his current situation at UF, McElwain could have weathered a suspension to his starting quarterback in 2008. While it wouldn't have been ideal, Greg McElroy was better-equipped to step in and keep a run-heavy offense moving.
As it would turn out, that 2008 Alabama team was a year away. For McElwain and UF, two more years is probably a more reasonable expectation for an SEC championship.
Five predictions for the SEC Championship Game
UF quarterback Treon Harris will have at least three passes deflected by UA defensive linemen
Harris is listed at 5-foot-11, which may be an inch or two generous.
Between Harris' struggles to find passing lanes from the pocket and an offensive line that started a pair of true freshmen at the guard spots a week ago, Alabama defensive linemen Jarran Reed, A'Shawn Robinson, Dalvin Tomlinson and Jonathan Allen should be able to affect Harris in ways that don't involve sacks.
Between them, the quartet has 14 pass breakups to the their credit this season. That's why you've heard Alabama coach Nick Saban talk about pushing the pocket this week. Get pressure in Harris' face and a guy who entered the week having completed just 54 percent of his passes will have an even more difficult time delivering accurate throws.
Derrick Henry will become the SEC's single-season rusher
Henry heads to Atlanta with a school-record 1,797 rushing yards in tow. He'll make his way back to Tuscaloosa with the SEC single-season mark -- which currently belongs to Herschel Walker (1,891 yards in 1981) -- in his back pocket.
The question is, how much more than the 95 yards Henry needs to eclipse Walker's mark will Henry produce?
If he goes for 200-plus for the fifth time in the last seven games, he'll likely blow past the 2,000-yard mark, which takes me back to something Henry's high school coach told me back in the preseason.
"I think he's going to go for over 2,000 yards if they don't hold him back," said Bobby Ramsay, who spent four years watching Henry amass a national-record 12,124 rushing yards for Yulee (Fla.) High School. "Especially with the pistol stuff they're doing. It really fits his style and he can handle the workload. I'm biased, but I think he can do it."
Alabama offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin hasn't held Henry back of late. There's no reason to think that will change this week.
UF will rush for less than 80 yards
The Gators currently rank 13th in the SEC in rushing offense (137 yards per game). Meanwhile, Alabama ranks first in the league in rushing defense, allowing just 79 yards per contest.
To his credit, UF running back Kelvin Taylor has managed to rush for nearly 1,000 yards while working behind an offensive line that features a Fordham transfer and plenty of youth. The 2015 season has been a 180 for Taylor, who, prior to the arrival of first-year head coach Jim McElwain, often times ran without concern for scheme or much of a finish.
After giving up 90 first-half rushing yards to Auburn a week ago, the Crimson Tide limited the Tigers to a single yard on the ground in the second half. Taylor, who rushed for more than 100 yards in games against South Carolina, Florida Atlantic and Florida State, won't be completely shutdown on Saturday. But he won't go for more than 100 yards for a fourth-straight game, either.
Punters will keep offenses on the long field
If turnover margin is close to even, the game's two punters -- JK Scott and Johnny Townsend -- are both capable of making the offenses earn it. Townsend enters the game averaging 44.2 yards per punt, while Scott checks in at 43.4.
Separation between the two comes in where the all-important net average is concerned. It's there where Townsend and UF hold nearly a six-yard edge on Scott and Alabama. Opponents are averaging just 3 yards per return against the Gators.
As for Scott, his 36.2-yard net average this season is 8.5 yards per punt lower than it was during his stellar freshman campaign. The dip isn't as much a knock on what Scott has done this season as it is a testament to how great he was in 2014.
Alabama will win the game by a score of 24-9
If it feels a little like 2008 to McElwain, it's certainly understandable.
As Alabama's first-year offensive coordinator that year, McElwain was handed the unenviable task of producing enough points to give the Crimson Tide a chance to pull off an upset of Florida.
That UA offense wasn't loaded with playmakers but it did have two things McElwain's first Florida offense doesn't: a strong run-blocking line led by tackle Andre Smith and a veteran quarterback in John Parker Wilson who fit McElwain's offense pretty well.
Unlike his current situation at UF, McElwain could have weathered a suspension to his starting quarterback in 2008. While it wouldn't have been ideal, Greg McElroy was better-equipped to step in and keep a run-heavy offense moving.
As it would turn out, that 2008 Alabama team was a year away. For McElwain and UF, two more years is probably a more reasonable expectation for an SEC championship.
Five predictions for the SEC Championship Game
Bullard knicked up a bit and is questionable isn't he? Shank controls Bullard, Henry will ROMP!!!!
PhillyGirl
Member
He's had a knee issue but is listed as probable. Ivie has been changed from questionable to probable as well. In total, they still have seven listed as questionable; four of those on defense.
They're banged up on defense, playing poorly on the offensive line ... :smh:
Several top recruits predict Saturday's SEC Championship Game
Saturday’s SEC Championship Game in Atlanta, Ga., will feature No. 2 Alabama (11-1, 7-1 SEC) and No. 18 Florida (10-2, 7-1 SEC), and no two teams have played one another more in this game than these two programs.
And though Florida is 4-3 all-time against Alabama in previous SEC Championship games, Las Vegas doesn’t think Saturday’s contest will be close.
So, SEC Country reached out to a few targets and commits from each program for their predictions on Saturday’s outcome.
Check them out below.
Ben Davis, LB, Gordo (Gordo, Ala.), Undecided — “Alabama over Florida, 35-14. I don’t think Florida’s offense will be able to do very much against Alabama’s defense.”
Marcus Tatum, OL, Mainland (Daytona Beach, Fla.), Undecided — “It’s going to be a close defensive game. Both front sevens are crazy talented.”
Dre Massey, ATH, Mauldin (Mauldin, S.C.), Committed to Florida — “13-10, Florida. Both defenses will show up again, but Florida will pull it out late.”
Jake Fromm, QB, Houston County (Warner Robins, Ga.) Committed to Alabama — “I have Alabama in this one. I predict it’ll be 31-3 because the Alabama defense will dominate a lesser offense in Florida. Henry will rush for 200 (yards) again.”
Mykel Jones, WR, Patterson (Patterson, La.), Undecided — “I have Alabama. They are clicking at the right time of the year and I don’t see them losing anymore.”
Miller Forristall, TE, Cartersville (Cartersville, Ga.), Committed to Alabama — “Alabama 27, Florida 10. Alabama is playing at a high level and their ability to control the line of scrimmage along with an improving (Jacob) Coker will be too much for the Gators.”
Nate McBride, LB, Vidalia Comprehensive (Vidalia, Ga.), Undecided — “Alabama. Just a better football team.”
Markail Benton, LB, Central (Phenix City, Ala.), Undecided — “I think it’ll be a good game.”
Saturday’s SEC Championship Game in Atlanta, Ga., will feature No. 2 Alabama (11-1, 7-1 SEC) and No. 18 Florida (10-2, 7-1 SEC), and no two teams have played one another more in this game than these two programs.
And though Florida is 4-3 all-time against Alabama in previous SEC Championship games, Las Vegas doesn’t think Saturday’s contest will be close.
So, SEC Country reached out to a few targets and commits from each program for their predictions on Saturday’s outcome.
Check them out below.
Ben Davis, LB, Gordo (Gordo, Ala.), Undecided — “Alabama over Florida, 35-14. I don’t think Florida’s offense will be able to do very much against Alabama’s defense.”
Marcus Tatum, OL, Mainland (Daytona Beach, Fla.), Undecided — “It’s going to be a close defensive game. Both front sevens are crazy talented.”
Dre Massey, ATH, Mauldin (Mauldin, S.C.), Committed to Florida — “13-10, Florida. Both defenses will show up again, but Florida will pull it out late.”
Jake Fromm, QB, Houston County (Warner Robins, Ga.) Committed to Alabama — “I have Alabama in this one. I predict it’ll be 31-3 because the Alabama defense will dominate a lesser offense in Florida. Henry will rush for 200 (yards) again.”
Mykel Jones, WR, Patterson (Patterson, La.), Undecided — “I have Alabama. They are clicking at the right time of the year and I don’t see them losing anymore.”
Miller Forristall, TE, Cartersville (Cartersville, Ga.), Committed to Alabama — “Alabama 27, Florida 10. Alabama is playing at a high level and their ability to control the line of scrimmage along with an improving (Jacob) Coker will be too much for the Gators.”
Nate McBride, LB, Vidalia Comprehensive (Vidalia, Ga.), Undecided — “Alabama. Just a better football team.”
Markail Benton, LB, Central (Phenix City, Ala.), Undecided — “I think it’ll be a good game.”
PhillyGirl
Member
I don't get to see anything up where i live now. Just Syracuse orange during basketball season. Which looks suspiciously like Barn orange.
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