No. 4 Georgia is a 13-point underdog Saturday's SEC Championship game match up with No. 1 Alabama. When the line opened, the Crimson Tide was favored by 10 points and the movement indicates that there has been quite a bit of money has gone the way of Nick Saban's crew.
It's not really a surprise. Alabama has blown through its 2018 regular-season schedule, winning every game by 20 points or more. That's the first time a team has accomplished that since the start of the 20th century. It sports one of the nation's top offenses, defenses, and most talented rosters from top to bottom. For the past decade, Saban has piled up elite talent year after year and reloading, not rebuilding, has become the norm in Tuscaloosa.
Georgia will look to throw a wrench in the Crimson Tide's historic run on Saturday, regardless of how it's seen as a bit of an overwhelming underdog. The Bulldogs are quite talented in their own right and traded blows with Alabama less than 11 months ago in the National Championship game.
But why should the Bulldog faithful have any confidence that it can take down College Football's top program? Is there a way that Kirby Smart can be the first Saban assistant to knock off his former boss?
It may not happen, but it certainly can and below, Dawgs247 delivers a handful of reasons why the Bulldogs will pull off the upset in the same stadium where they had their hearts broken back in January.
It starts with talent: So often Alabama simply outclasses its opponents. Make no mistake about it, Alabama plays well every time out but even when it has a lull, whether it's a drive or a quarter, few teams are able to take advantage. Georgia, however, has the horses to make those opportunities count. The Bulldogs plenty of talent, albeit young, to grab the momentum in the spurts where Alabama leaves an opening.
Special teams: Alabama is really good in this phase of the game but Georgia has shown that it can be better. The Crimson Tide have struggled with field goals this season and they allowed a blocked punt last week against Auburn. UGA, on the other hand, has one of the best field goal kickers in the nation in Rodrigo Blankenship and has shown that it will come after a kick. Georgia hasn't been perfect, especially in kickoff coverage where Georgia Tech returned on 100 yards for a touchdown a week ago. Also, it'll take a monumental effort to make it happen seeing as how Bama is allowing just a half yard per return in 2018, but Mecole Hardman Jr. has eight punt returns of 20-plus yards in just 13 tries this year.
The ground game: Alabama has a very good run defense but it normally ranks at the top of the SEC when it comes to stopping other teams on the ground. You'd have to go all the way back to 2007, Saban's first year with the program, to find a year where the Crimson Tide didn't rank in the top two in stopping the run. It's not far off this year at No. 3 but Auburn showed a few days ago that it is possible to run the ball with some success. Georgia's offensive line is the biggest, most athletic, and most well-coached unit Alabama will have faced this season and there's a case to be made the D'Andre Swift and Elijah Holyfield is the best duo of ball carriers they'll have taken on. It's hard to imagine a scenario where the Bulldogs are going to just gash this defense, but the task doesn't seem nearly as tall as it did back in January.
Deandre Baker's impact: With so much young talent on Georgia's roster, there aren't many players who can be considered truly elite players just yet. There is one, however, who most would agree is one of the best at his position in the entire sport, Baker. The Miami native has been matched up on some of the SEC's top receivers this season and each time he has been up to the task. He has shut down guys like Van Jefferson (Florida), Emmanuel Hall (Missouri), Deebo Samuel (South Carolina), and Kalija Lipscomb (Vanderbilt). We're not predicting that he's going to shut down Jerry Jeudy or any of Alabama's extremely talented wideouts, but his ability to limit things on his side of the field creates some flexibility for the Bulldog defense and can have a positive impact on the rest of the unit.
Revenge, redemption, whatever: Georgia's players and Smart refuse to talk about it, but as long as they are human, it'll be a factor. What happened last year put an unmistakable taste in the Bulldogs mouth. When we spoke with UGA players this spring, they said then that the only way to get rid of it was to get back to the same point that they were a year ago and come out on top. In order to get back to that exact spot, they'll have to go through the team that broke their hearts a year ago -- maybe twice. Without clearing this hurdle, it won't be possible and the Bulldogs understand that. Call it whatever you'd like but it's a powerful emotion, evidenced by UGA's showing in last year's SEC Championship game against Auburn.
Five reasons Georgia will beat Alabama in the SEC Championship