"The preseason S&P+ projections are a simple mix of three factors: recent history, returning production, and recruiting. To come up with 130-team projections for all of FBS, I create projected ratings based on each factor. Hereās how the process works:
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- For recruiting, I create a rating based on these weighted four-year recruiting rankings. The weighting (67 percent this yearās class, 15 percent last yearās, 15 percent the year before that, three percent the year before that) is based on what makes the ratings most predictive.
- For returning production, I take each teamās returning offensive and defensive production(which are on different scales) and apply projected changes to last yearās ratings. The ranking you see below is not where they rank in returning production but where they would rank after the projected changes are applied to last yearās S&P+ averages. This piece makes up a vast majority of the overall S&P+ projections.
- For recent history, Iāve found that getting a little weird predicts pretty well. This number isnāt a strict five-year average ā last yearās ratings already carry heavy weight from the returning production piece. Instead, what you see below is a projection based solely off of seasons two to five years ago. Recent history doesnāt carry much weight in the projections, but it serves as a reflection of overall program health. We overreact to one yearās performance sometimes."
2019ās projected 130-team S&P+ rankings, from Bama to UTEP
Here are the three pieces used to create these projections, along with some more notes at the bottom.
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