🏈 PJ'S Picks-Week 11

[psychojoe]

Baylor at Oklahoma

Before the season started, everyone looked at this game as the decider for the Big 12 championship, with the winner moving on. The Bears are certainly still in that hunt, but Oklahoma has stumbled twice, against TCU, and also against their old nemesis Kansas State. Baylor's only blemish was against West Virginia. The home field does give the Sooners some edge, but the Sooners are somewhat banged up. The Bears, meanwhile, are seeking to re-ignite their high octane attack against what at ne point was thought to be a pretty god defense. I like the Bears to win and advance in this one, even at Norman.

PJ's Pick - Baylor 38 Oklahoma 34

 

[psychojoe]

Kansas State at TCU

No one thought that this would be an important game back in August, but then TCU unveiled a high powered offense, and discovered that they had the right quarterback to make it effective. Unlike earlier Gary Patterson teams, this one wins on offense, as West Virginia found out last week. Kansas State's personnel doesn't impress you, until you see them playing together. They are extremely well coached and disciplined, and their soundness and scarcity of mistakes makes up for a lot of the athleticism that they don't have. After a near miss against Auburn, they have moved methodically through the Big 12, standing as the only team unbeaten in conference play. They have been extremely tough at home, but now they must run the gauntlet of three very tough road games, beginning with this one. I think that the Horned Frogs have too much firepower on offense.

PJ's Pick- TCU 41 Kansas Sate 31

 

[psychojoe]

Notre Dame at Arizona State

The last time that I noticed Notre Dame they were still whining about a call late in the FSU game, a call that few outside of South Bend disagreed with. The only thing most of us were aware of concerning Arizona State was their grotesque game against UCLA, wherein they rolled up 38 first downs and over 600 yards of offense and still managed to lose, and to lose convincingly. The Irish mowed down Navy last weekend. the sin devils have righted their ship since UCLA, and are off a double OT win against Utah last weekend that brought some clarity to the PAC 12 southern division race. The Sun Devils are a longshot for the post season playoffs, but they have the games to get there if they keep winning. I see the Irish going back to the golden dome with something else to whine about.

PJ's Pick - Arizona State 31 Notre Dame 24

 

[psychojoe]

Oregon at Utah

The Utes came heartbreakingly close to getting that key road win that would have put them in the driver's seat in the PAC 12 south race. Their stingy defense played very well, but their usually reliable place kicker let them down, missing two that could have won the game for them. Oregon, meanwhile, exorcised some old ghosts by ripping Stanford last weekend. Even on the road the ducks will have enough to take care of a disappointed band of Utes, who are missing their best receiver. The Ute defense keeps it respectable, but that is about it.

PJ's Pick- Oregon 31 Utah 17

 

[psychojoe]

Ohio State at Michigan State

Those of you who have known me over the years on this board know that even before you know who became their coach I intensely disliked Ohio State. If I view this game through green tinted glasses forgive me. These two teams are both undefeated in B1g play, their only losses being out of conference. Sparty lost to playoff contender Oregon, while the legumes lost to a Virginia Tech team that would have difficulty beating Vanderbilt. Both seem to be playing their best football now, though just how good that is I don't know, considering the weak condition of their league. I am partial to teams with stout defenses, and Mark D'Antonio's teams are noted for that, and they are playing at home. While I would like to see this game as a replay of Custer's last stand, with Urban playing the title role, it will be closer than that.

PJ's Pick - Michigan State 34 Ohio State 20

 

[psychojoe]

Presbyterian at Ole Miss

The Rebel-Bears are smarting from the events of last weekend. Their best offensive player going down with a gruesome looking injury added salt to the wound of losing a game they absolutely had to have to stay in the running for the national championship. This game is the next best thing to an off week for them, coming at this point in time. The Akbars may be a bit sluggish as they get their heads straight for the rest of the season, but they should have little trouble with this one.

PJ's Pick - Ole Miss 45 Presbyterian 7

 

[psychojoe]

UT Martin at Mississippi State

Stark Vegas is justifiably excited about their team, the best that Dan Mullen has produced in his tenure there. After surviving a scare from Arkansas they get a week to re-tool and get ready for the stretch run. Much like Ole Miss, they should have no problems this week.

PJ's Pick - Mississippi State 48 UT Martin 13

 

[psychojoe]

Florida at Vanderbilt

No requests for moving vans to the Muschamp residence this week. The Gators unveiled a hitherto non existent power running game against their hated rival and won convincingly. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt continues its miserable season. As Florida showed in their loss to Missouri, they are quite able to give away enough points on offense and special teams to lose big time. That will not happen this Saturday. The Gators will continue their salvage job on this season. With this win they become bowl eligible.

PJ's Pick - Florida 38 Vanderbilt 7

 

[psychojoe]

Georgia at Kentucky

These Wildcats are a much tougher feline at home. The Dawgs had best not be dwelling on their loss last weekend, or they will find themselves in trouble. It must be hellish to be a Georgia fan and get so near to a chance to play for the big prize only to have it snatched away once again. I don't think that the young cats are ready to take down the Dawgs this year, but there should be some scratches and toothmarks on the canines at the end.

PJ's Pick - Georgia 34 Kentucky 31

 

[psychojoe]

Texas A&M at Auburn

I am sure that every Barner old enough at the time remembers the way that Manziel and company violated them two years ago. The Boogs will have revenge on their minds. This game sets up well for that. The Aggies run defense has been shredded by several opponents, and their freshman quarterback will be making his second start. The Aggies talented wide receivers will get them on the board, but no way do they keep up.

PJ's Pick - Auburn 51 Texas A&M 27

 

[psychojoe]

Alabama at LSU

Our favorite team heads for the bayou country this week for a game that is typical of what big time college football is all about. I am not referring to the fan bases, though that is a lot of fun. . Rather, it is about two of the very best coaches, two of the most talented teams, well prepared, going against each other man to man to find out who is best. The Tigers have gone back to what everyone thought would be their strength when the season got underway: power running with a trio of talented backs (McGee, Hilliard and Fournette) behind a large and talented offensive line. Their defense is speedy and talented, but they have uncharacteristically been vulnerable to inside running. Miles has reverted to a very conservative, don't beat yourselves offense.

As I analyze this, I don't believe that LSU can beat us with their passing game. It will not be easy, but I think our defense can shut down their run and force them to the air, which definitely tilts the game our way. On offense, our balanced attack can run the ball well enough inside to give them a dilemma: do they double Cooper and hope they can contain the running game, or do they put a safety in the box to stop the run and hope that Cooper does not go off on them.

All these great athletes, and one of the best game day atmospheres in college football. I am pumped already.

PJ's Pick - Alabama 27 LSU 17

 

[Fox Sports- Stewart]

Stewart Mandel's and Bruce Feldman's picks for week 11​

BAYLOR (+5.5) at OKLAHOMA (Noon, FOX Sports 1)

Mandel: Baylor is one of the more extreme examples I’ve seen of a team that performs markedly better at home than it does on the road. Dating to RGIII’s 2011 Heisman season, Baylor is 6-9 in conference road games, 16-1 in all others. This season the Bears have scored 60-plus points at home against TCU and Kansas, 49 at Iowa State and 28 at Texas. All of which is to say that while Oklahoma is hardly dominant this year, I don’t trust the Bears to execute in a big road game. Oklahoma 38, Baylor 30.

Feldman: Yes, I know the Bears have never won at OU, but there have been a whole lot of firsts in Waco since Art Briles showed up, and I like Baylor's chances because they have a sizable edge at QB with Bryce Petty. Baylor 34, Oklahoma 27.

IOWA (-1.5) at MINNESOTA (Noon, ESPN2)

Mandel: Iowa has been cranking up its offense lately, scoring at least 30 points in three straight games. If Mark Weisman and the Hawkeyes make it four against the Gophers it will be a first in school history. I don’t see it happening. The Gophers have a decent defense -- 25th nationally (4.88 yards per play) -- and they’re coming off a bye week. Minnesota RB David Cobb is averaging 141.4 yards per game, and he’ll be rested and ready to attack an average Hawkeyes rush D. Minnesota 23, Iowa 20.

Feldman: The Hawkeyes have been surging as Mark Weisman and a power running game has cranked up while the Gophers are coming off a clunker of a showing in a loss to lowly Illinois. Minnesota's penchant for slow starts could really come back to haunt them here since Iowa's outscored its last three opponents by an average of 22-5 in the opening quarter. Iowa 23, Minnesota 17.

NOTRE DAME (+2.5) at ARIZONA STATE (3:30 p.m., ABC)

Mandel: Arizona State is the anti-Baylor. It has a penchant for going belly-up in big games … at home. The Sun Devils’ defense has been superb over their past few games but they’ve all been against the few Pac-12 teams without a difference-making quarterback. Everett Golson will be the most dangerous they’ve faced since UCLA’s Brett Hundley -- and that did not end well. Notre Dame 45, Arizona State 35.

Feldman: The Irish lost a key cog on their defense when linebackerJoe Schmidt went down for the rest of the season with an injury. His ability to be a stabilizer for the Irish D will be missed. Another reason why I'm going with the Sun Devils: ND is 2-5 the week after facing Navy, which has a tendency to leave an opponent banged up. ASU 31, Notre Dame 24.

TEXAS A&M (+21.5) at AUBURN (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Mandel: Take a second to remind yourself that A&M was once the No. 6 team in the country. The Aggies’ defense will have their hands full with Nick Marshall and the Tigers’ offense, but it also doesn’t help that A&M’s new Kyle Allen-led offense is struggling to find itself. Louisiana-Monroe shut out the Aggies in the second half last week. So yes, this one could get ugly. Auburn 44, Texas A&M 20.

Feldman: The second college start for Aggie true freshman QB Kyle Allen is in a much tougher spot than his debut, when he faced ULM at home. Don't be surprised if Allen responds well to the challenge, but the Aggies just don't have enough experience on D to cope with the potent Tigers ground game. Auburn 42, Texas A&M 28.

UCLA (-4.5) at WASHINGTON (7 p.m., FOX Sports 1)

Mandel: The Bruins played their best defensive game of the season last week in holding a potent Arizona offense to seven points and 255 yards. Washington has struggled on offense even against lesser-talented defenses than UCLA’s. Huskies standouts Hau'oli Kikaha and Danny Shelton could tee off on Bruins QB Brett Hundley and rack up sacks and turnovers, but it likely won’t be enough to compensate for their own limited offense. UCLA 21, Washington 17.

Feldman: More drama with Marcus Peters got the standout CB booted off UW, which means Washington may start three true freshmen in the secondary. That sounds like a ripe situation for OC Noel Mazzone and QB Brett Hundley, who has become more of a factor in the Bruins’ run game of late and is now double trouble for U-Dub. UCLA 34, Washington 20.

LOUISVILLE (-3) at BOSTON COLLEGE (7:15 p.m., ESPN2)

Mandel: Louisville’s had ample time to recover from its crushing Florida State loss, but it’s running into a physical BC team that runs the ball nearly 50 times per game. But save for the second half of that FSU game, the Cardinalshave been solid against the run, and WR DeVante Parker and RB Michael Dyer have helped spark Bobby Petrino’s offense. They should win this game comfortably even though they're on the road. Louisville 23, Boston College 10.

Feldman: I'm tempted to pick the Eagles to win outright, because they're physical, QB Tyler Murphy's wheels present some problems and they have a very good run D (No. 4 in the nation), but I just feel like the Cards’ O is too explosive now that Parker is back in action and Dyer has heated up. That's a lot for Bobby Petrino to work with. Louisville 27, Boston College 21.

KANSAS STATE (+6) at TCU (7:30 p.m., FOX)

Mandel: Horned Frogs QB Trevone Boykin cooled off considerably in last week’s win at West Virginia, completing just 12-of-30 passes. Boykin is not incredibly accurate -- his 57.0 completion percentage is down from last year’s 59.7 -- but he avoids interceptions (four). K-State’s defense is not one to blow assignments and give up big plays. In fact, it’s allowed only seven completions of 30-plus yards all season. Boykin will play better than he did in Morgantown but not well enough to win. Kansas State 34, TCU 30.

Feldman: Gary Patterson's team had its hands up and barely survived its trip to Morgantown, but they return home to face a solid K-State squad, and I think the Horned Frogs match up well to handle Tyler Lockett and company. Also, I like TCU's speed edge against the Wildcat D to be the difference in the second half. TCU 27, K-State 17.

ALABAMA (-6.5) at LSU (8 p.m., CBS)

Mandel: Alabama has an advantage at almost every position on the field, and yet there’s a general nervousness about the Tide as they head into Baton Rouge. Is that the Kiffin factor? Or that they haven’t defeated a ranked team since last year? You can count on LSU to be physical on both sides of the line, but it’s hard to beat a good team like Alabama with a one-dimensional offense. Until Tigers QB Anthony Jennings proves otherwise, that’s exactly what LSU’s is. Alabama 24, LSU 17.

Feldman: The young Tigers are improving fast, but Nick Saban's offense right now is more balanced and will be able to pull away in the second half. I also think Blake Sims can handle a hostile environment. The Tide QB leads the nation in third-down completion percentage at 74 percent. Alabama 27, LSU 17.

OHIO STATE (+3.5) at MICHIGAN STATE (8 p.m., ABC)

Mandel: Ohio State has yet to lose a Big Ten regular season game in Urban Meyer’s three seasons. That’s insane. Even crazier, though, is that none of Meyer’s 31 victories in Columbus has come against a top-15 foe. The Spartans are just that. They’re solid defensively, have a reliable quarterback in Connor Cook and can milk clock if they need to. It’s just not a good matchup for the youngish Buckeyes, whose QB, J.T. Barrett, may struggle like he did at Penn State two weeks ago. Michigan State 27, Ohio State 21.

Feldman: Mark Dantonio has the more balanced team with the more experienced QB and the more seasoned defense, which I think will force a couple of mistakes from redshirt freshman QB J.T. Barrett.Michigan State 21, Ohio State 13.

OREGON (-8.5) at UTAH (10 p.m., ESPN)

Mandel: The Ducks have had issues defensively, and while the Utes don’t have the most dynamic offense, they do have a much more powerful rushing attack, led by Devontae Booker, than Stanford did last week. Whether Nate Orchard and the Utes’ disruptive defense can slow down Marcus Mariota and Royce Freeman is debatable, but we’ve seen enough Rice-Eccles field stormings in recent years to think this game might deliver the upset that shakes up the entire playoff picture. Utah 27, Oregon 24.

Feldman: The Utes have a physical running game and also a terrific pass rush, but I just think the Ducks are playing too well on offense to stumble here although there could be some letdown early after having smashed Stanford last week. Still, I think Marcus Mariota takes over in the second half for the Ducks. Oregon 38, Utah 24.

UPSET SPECIAL

WEST VIRGINIA (-3.5) at TEXAS (3:30 p.m., FOX Sports 1)

Mandel: It’s a perfect storm. West Virginia is coming off a crushing last-second loss to TCU. The ‘Horns have struggled to a 4-5 record, but Charlie Strong’s team is 3-3 in Big 12 play and their defense is just good enough -- No. 14 nationally (4.61 yards per play allowed) -- to knock off an upper-half team in their conference at some point. This week feels like their best remaining shot. Texas 24, West Virginia 23.

IOWA STATE (-3.5) at KANSAS (3:30 p.m., FSN)

Feldman: I think the Jayhawks are due to break through for interim coach Clint Bowen, and this is the spot they get a W against an ISUteam that is also 0-5 in Big 12 play and ranked No. 117 in points allowed. Kansas 24, Iowa State 21.



SI's Stewart Mandel—Continue reading...

 

[CollegeFootballNews.com]

BAMAMAG.COM PREDICTS:​

If it seems that college football victories get more important as the season goes along, that’s only because it’s true. The later the loss, the less time to make it up. Also, the College Football Playoff Selection Committee has so many things on its collective mind, it can’t be expected to remember how good you were in September and October.

Alabama is one of those one-loss teams involved in a very important game. And if the Crimson Tide wins, it will be involved in an even more important game the following week. And so on. For now, though, it is Bama vs. LSU on Saturday night in Baton Rouge that asks the question: Who is going to win?

And who better to ask than the Almost Perfect Picks panel, which predicts the outcome of every SEC game every week? And gets some right?

Alabama (7-1 overall, 4-1 in Southeastern Conference games) at LSU (7-2, 3-2) at 7 p.m. CST on CBS – The Crimson Tide doesn’t care about the game being in Tiger Stadium at night. Nick Saban doesn’t care what they say about him, which is not “Thank you for winning us a national championship and getting us back into contention.” Bama’s concern is that the Tigers seem to be coming on after an inauspicious start. The Tide has not been as crisp this year, certainly not on the road. Still, Alabama 31, LSU 17.

Texas A&M (6-3, 2-3) at Auburn (7-1, 4-1) at 2:30 p.m. CST on CBS – The Trill is gone, at least for one more game. Aggies quarterback Kenny Hill started the season like a Johnny Manziel Heisman Trophy winner, but somehow managed to behave badly, as Manziel, and has been suspended for two games, including this one. Auburn defeated Texas A&M for the first time in its history last year. Win number two comes Saturday in a game matching two teams who apparently appreciate tackling drills like a dentist’s drill. Auburn 49, Texas A&M 17.

Georgia (6-2, 4-2) at Kentucky (5-4, 2-4) at noon EST (11 a.m. central) on ESPN – Anytime there is a suggestion that Georgia Coach Mark Richt lacks something in the big games – such as last week’s 38-20 blowout at the hands of Florida, the immediate response is that Richt has been at Georgia 13 years (prior to this season) “and averaged 10 wins a year.” Well, not quite. He’s four wins short of that 10-win average. And in SEC games he’s about 5 ½ wins, 2 ½ losses a year. But he did come within five yards of winning the national championship in 2012, we hear. Kentucky’s improving, but not that much. Georgia 31, Kentucky 24.

Florida (4-3, 3-3) at Vanderbilt (3-6, 0-5) at 6:30 p.m. CST on SEC Network – That Mark Richt record probably looks pretty good to Florida Coach Will Muschamp and Vanderbilt Coach Derek Mason. Vandy beat the Gators in Gainesville last year but it will be a different tune in Music City Saturday. Florida 35, Vanderbilt 0.

Can you imagine the grief Alabama would get if the Crimson Tide was playing Presbyterian, which Mississippi is doing, or Tennesseee-Martin, the visitors for the number one team, Mississippi State.

If you can’t imagine it, just wait a couple of weeks until Alabama hosts Western Carolina.

Meanwhile…


Continue reading...

 

[TerryP]

Notre Dame at Arizona State

The last time that I noticed Notre Dame they were still whining about a call late in the FSU game, a call that few outside of South Bend disagreed with. The only thing most of us were aware of concerning Arizona State was their grotesque game against UCLA, wherein they rolled up 38 first downs and over 600 yards of offense and still managed to lose, and to lose convincingly. The Irish mowed down Navy last weekend. the sin devils have righted their ship since UCLA, and are off a double OT win against Utah last weekend that brought some clarity to the PAC 12 southern division race. The Sun Devils are a longshot for the post season playoffs, but they have the games to get there if they keep winning. I see the Irish going back to the golden dome with something else to whine about.

PJ's Pick - Arizona State 31 Notre Dame 24

I'm still seeing people buy into Golson, the ND mystique MISStique, and thinking Kelly's team is "all that." (no offense, @TheChief)

I'm looking at one thing. It's not that this game is at home for AZ St., and it's certainly not our beloved "Dr. Holtz." I'm looking at Annapolis. The numbers reflect that six of the seven teams that played Navy have lost their game the following weekend.

I've put another $370 or so on ASU covering the -2.5 (took the -1 as well) and will likely try to put some more cash in my "account" today.

 

[planomateo]

So all their road game wins the last few years have been against nobodies...talk about perspective.

 

[TerryP]

@planomateo On the flip side, when OU's hosted a ranked opponent over the last 10 years they're 33-21. Average margin of victory is a little less than six.

That's one of the reasons I chose Baylor to cover the +5.5.

What is catching my eye is both the public and the experts are choosing the over (70.5) on an 11AM kick.