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Teams Primed to Break Out
ACC ā Miami Hurricanes
Mark Richtās first season in Coral Gables resulted in a 9-4 campaign, the best record the Hurricanes have compiled since 2009. His second season, with a navigable schedule and 15 returning starters, should be even better.
If not for a four-game stumble in the middle of 2016, three games of which Miami lost by a possession or fewer, the Hurricanes wouldāve easily won the Coastal Division. Next season, with a soft non-conference schedule (home games against Toledo and Notre Dame are the highlights), Miami is in good shape to make a run once again.
A Week 3 road test against Florida State presents an early hurdle, but the Hurricanes' toughest matchup away from home the rest of the way is against North Carolina, a team that returns 12 starters and must replace the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. If Miami can find solid replacements for quarterback Brad Kaaya and tight end David Njoku, the Hurricanes should win 10-plus games for the first time since 2003.
Another team to watch for: Syracuse
Big Ten ā Michigan State Spartans
Letās label this placement what it is ā faith in Mark Dantonio.
The Spartans endured a disastrous 2016 with a 3-9 overall record, the worst in Dantonioās 10 years at the school. But when teams hit rock bottom, thereās plenty of room to bounce back up. I donāt expect the Spartans to win 11-plus games again like they did five times between 2010-16, but itās hard to imagine the Spartans posting another three-win campaign. Returning nine starters and a series of offseason scandals wonāt help Michigan Stateās attempted comeback, but the fact remains Dantonioās worst season in East Lansing prior to 2016 was 6-7.
Expect the Spartans to improve by at least two wins in 2017, and a return to a bowl isnāt out of the question for a program thatās produced four straight Top 35 recruiting classes.
Another team to watch for: Maryland
Big 12 ā Texas Longhorns
Texas fans have awaited a ābreakout seasonā for seven years now, but they might finally get it in 2017. Tom Herman inherits a roster more talented than anything he had at Houston, where he compiled a 22-5 record in his first two seasons as a head coach and pulled upsets of a trio of Top 10 teams (Florida State, Oklahoma and Louisville).
The Longhorns, thanks to Charlie Strongās recruiting prowess, have the foundation of two Top 10 recruiting classes to work with. Thereās no longer a question at quarterback (Shane Buechele is the guy) and the team doesnāt lack for skill talent or starting aptitude in the trenches (Connor Williams is an All-American candidate at left tackle).
The Big 12 should be much better in 2017, but itās not unreasonable for the Longhorns to make a three or four-game jump after a 5-7 campaign a year ago. Thereās a reason why Texas sneaks in at the backend of every preseason Top 25 ranking ā thereās just too much talent there for continued failure.
Another team to watch for: TCU
Pac 12 ā UCLA Bruins
Let the nationās No. 1 overall recruit in the 2017 class, UCLAās Jaelan Phillips, explain the Bruinsā 4-8 season in 2016: āMike (Fafaul) is a good quarterback, but heās not Josh Rosen.ā
Phillips provided that rationale for UCLAās struggles in December, and the explanation still applies. The Bruinsā season spiraled out of control after Rosenās injury Week 6 against Arizona State. UCLA was 3-2 five games into 2016 with its only losses coming in last-minute defeats to Texas A&M and Stanford. After Rosenās injury, the Bruins went 1-6 despite a defense that ranked in the Top 20 nationally in efficiency.
Rosen, a projected Top 10 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, will be back this year, and the Bruins return 15 starters, including nine on offense. UCLA wonāt be the favorite in the Pac-12 South ā that honor belongs to USC ā but thereās no way they endure a second straight losing season with the team's overall talent.
Expect the Bruins to be a Top 25 team despite a brutal schedule (road games against Memphis, Stanford, Washington, Utah and USC).
Another team to watch for: Oregon Ducks
SEC ā Georgia Bulldogs
The Bulldogs endured an up-and-down debut campaign under Kirby Smart at 8-5 overall, but thereās plenty of room for optimism entering 2017 with an SEC-high 18 starters returning. Georgiaās entire defense is back outside of nickelback Maurice Smith, and starting quarterback Jacob Eason should only improve as a sophomore.
If Georgia can overcome questions at wide receiver and along the offensive line, it could live up to its lofty billing as one of college footballās most talented teams.
The SEC East is wide open at the top ā Florida and Tennessee both have plenty of questions ā and Georgia is in great position to take advantage. Avoiding Alabama in the cross-division schedule helps, too. Road games with Notre Dame, Tennessee, Auburn and Georgia Tech are certainly stiff tests, but I expect the Bulldogs to win at least 10 games next year.
Another team to watch for: Mississippi State
Teams Set to Tumble
ACC ā Pittsburgh Panthers
Pittsburgh is led by one the nationās most respected coaches in Pat Narduzzi, but things donāt set up well for the Panthers in 2017 after back-to-back 8-5 seasons.
First, Pittsburgh must replace 12 starters, including quarterback Nathan Peterman and running back James Conner. Second, the Panthers will need to deal with the loss of offensive coordinator Matt Canada, who is among the most brilliant offensive minds in college football. His replacement, Shawn Watson, didnāt exactly excel in his last OC role at Texas. Third, and probably most important, the Panthers have a brutal early-season schedule.
They open the season against FCS national runner-up Youngstown State, go on the road to play Penn State and then host Oklahoma State before traveling to play Georgia Tech. The rest of the schedule is better, but thatās a brutal four-game stretch to begin the season for a team with plenty of questions at the start of it.
Big Ten ā Michigan Wolverines
Some teams have to replace a little and some teams have to replace a lot. Then thereās Michigan.
The Wolverines bring back just five starters off a 10-3 team a year ago, including a single defensive starter from a unit that finished second nationally in points allowed. There are replacements waiting in the wings for Michigan without question ā Jim Harbaughās proven himself an elite recruiter since he arrived at Michigan. It just seems impossible for the Wolverines to be as good as they were a year ago in arguably college footballās best division with so little returning experience.
Michiganās schedule does it no favors either with a non-conference matchup with Florida and road games against Penn State and Wisconsin on the docket.
Harbaugh and his coaching staff will have the Wolverines contending for titles for years to come. It just won't happen this year.
Big 12 ā West Virginia Mountaineers
West Virginia, much like Michigan, must replace a massive amount of production with 14 starters departing from last yearās 10-3 team. Thereās plenty of hype around the Mountaineers new quarterback Will Grier, and rightly so. But West Virginia must also replace eight starters from what was the Big 12ās second-best defensive unit a year ago.
Before 2016, head coach Dana Holgorsen had never led the Mountaineers to better than a 5-4 record in conference play. West Virginia has certainly adjusted to the Big 12 since it entered the conference, yet the fact remains the Mountaineers feasted on the Big 12 during a down year in 2016.
The Big 12 promises to be much better in 2017, and the road will be much more difficult for the Mountaineers.
It doesnāt help that West Virginiaās only bye week of the season comes after a Week 4 matchup with Kansas. After that the Mountaineers will play eight straight games without a break (even Iowa State is expected to be strong in 2017).
Pac-12 ā Utah Utes
It took Utah a few years to get adjusted to the Pac-12, but the Utes have been excellent the last three seasons with a combined 28-11 record. Kyle Whittingham has his own style ā the Utes are physical and mine under-recruited talent ā and itās worked.
That said, Utah returns just 11 starters and drew a brutal cross-division schedule with road games against Oregon and Washington and an early-season matchup at home with Stanford. Add in a road game with USC and a non-conference road game against BYU, and the schedule could not set up much more difficult.
Utahās recruited well and Whittingham is among the most underrated coaches in the country, but itās going to be tough to overcome the teamās departed talent and schedule in 2017.
SEC ā Texas A&M Aggies
Letās get this out of the way first: Texas A&M still features plenty of top-end talent in 2017.
Christian Kirk and Armani Watts are potential first-round draft picks, John Chavis is among the nationās top defensive coordinators and Kevin Sumlinās recruited well since he arrived at Texas A&M. But as I wrote last season, the Aggies' window for championships in the near future closed after midseason losses to Alabama and Mississippi State.
Myles Garrett is gone, Daeshon Hall is gone, Trevor Knight is gone, Josh Reynolds and a large chunk of the Aggies high-profile receiving corps are gone. A year ago, with all of those players, the Aggies still stumbled to an 8-5 finish ā to be fair, injuries played a large role in that. Without the players mentioned above, and with a dearth of depth in the front seven and questions at quarterback, things donāt look great for Texas A&M's status as a fringe contender in 2017.
The SEC West remains a hazard to navigate, and road games against UCLA and Florida donāt help matters. The Aggies three-year streak of 8-5 campaigns will end in 2017. Things will just trend in the wrong direction for Sumlin, who is in desperate need of a breakout season.
Thursday 10: Power Five teams primed to break out, tumble in 2017
ACC ā Miami Hurricanes
Mark Richtās first season in Coral Gables resulted in a 9-4 campaign, the best record the Hurricanes have compiled since 2009. His second season, with a navigable schedule and 15 returning starters, should be even better.
If not for a four-game stumble in the middle of 2016, three games of which Miami lost by a possession or fewer, the Hurricanes wouldāve easily won the Coastal Division. Next season, with a soft non-conference schedule (home games against Toledo and Notre Dame are the highlights), Miami is in good shape to make a run once again.
A Week 3 road test against Florida State presents an early hurdle, but the Hurricanes' toughest matchup away from home the rest of the way is against North Carolina, a team that returns 12 starters and must replace the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. If Miami can find solid replacements for quarterback Brad Kaaya and tight end David Njoku, the Hurricanes should win 10-plus games for the first time since 2003.
Another team to watch for: Syracuse
Big Ten ā Michigan State Spartans
Letās label this placement what it is ā faith in Mark Dantonio.
The Spartans endured a disastrous 2016 with a 3-9 overall record, the worst in Dantonioās 10 years at the school. But when teams hit rock bottom, thereās plenty of room to bounce back up. I donāt expect the Spartans to win 11-plus games again like they did five times between 2010-16, but itās hard to imagine the Spartans posting another three-win campaign. Returning nine starters and a series of offseason scandals wonāt help Michigan Stateās attempted comeback, but the fact remains Dantonioās worst season in East Lansing prior to 2016 was 6-7.
Expect the Spartans to improve by at least two wins in 2017, and a return to a bowl isnāt out of the question for a program thatās produced four straight Top 35 recruiting classes.
Another team to watch for: Maryland
Big 12 ā Texas Longhorns
Texas fans have awaited a ābreakout seasonā for seven years now, but they might finally get it in 2017. Tom Herman inherits a roster more talented than anything he had at Houston, where he compiled a 22-5 record in his first two seasons as a head coach and pulled upsets of a trio of Top 10 teams (Florida State, Oklahoma and Louisville).
The Longhorns, thanks to Charlie Strongās recruiting prowess, have the foundation of two Top 10 recruiting classes to work with. Thereās no longer a question at quarterback (Shane Buechele is the guy) and the team doesnāt lack for skill talent or starting aptitude in the trenches (Connor Williams is an All-American candidate at left tackle).
The Big 12 should be much better in 2017, but itās not unreasonable for the Longhorns to make a three or four-game jump after a 5-7 campaign a year ago. Thereās a reason why Texas sneaks in at the backend of every preseason Top 25 ranking ā thereās just too much talent there for continued failure.
Another team to watch for: TCU
Pac 12 ā UCLA Bruins
Let the nationās No. 1 overall recruit in the 2017 class, UCLAās Jaelan Phillips, explain the Bruinsā 4-8 season in 2016: āMike (Fafaul) is a good quarterback, but heās not Josh Rosen.ā
Phillips provided that rationale for UCLAās struggles in December, and the explanation still applies. The Bruinsā season spiraled out of control after Rosenās injury Week 6 against Arizona State. UCLA was 3-2 five games into 2016 with its only losses coming in last-minute defeats to Texas A&M and Stanford. After Rosenās injury, the Bruins went 1-6 despite a defense that ranked in the Top 20 nationally in efficiency.
Rosen, a projected Top 10 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, will be back this year, and the Bruins return 15 starters, including nine on offense. UCLA wonāt be the favorite in the Pac-12 South ā that honor belongs to USC ā but thereās no way they endure a second straight losing season with the team's overall talent.
Expect the Bruins to be a Top 25 team despite a brutal schedule (road games against Memphis, Stanford, Washington, Utah and USC).
Another team to watch for: Oregon Ducks
SEC ā Georgia Bulldogs
The Bulldogs endured an up-and-down debut campaign under Kirby Smart at 8-5 overall, but thereās plenty of room for optimism entering 2017 with an SEC-high 18 starters returning. Georgiaās entire defense is back outside of nickelback Maurice Smith, and starting quarterback Jacob Eason should only improve as a sophomore.
If Georgia can overcome questions at wide receiver and along the offensive line, it could live up to its lofty billing as one of college footballās most talented teams.
The SEC East is wide open at the top ā Florida and Tennessee both have plenty of questions ā and Georgia is in great position to take advantage. Avoiding Alabama in the cross-division schedule helps, too. Road games with Notre Dame, Tennessee, Auburn and Georgia Tech are certainly stiff tests, but I expect the Bulldogs to win at least 10 games next year.
Another team to watch for: Mississippi State
Teams Set to Tumble
ACC ā Pittsburgh Panthers
Pittsburgh is led by one the nationās most respected coaches in Pat Narduzzi, but things donāt set up well for the Panthers in 2017 after back-to-back 8-5 seasons.
First, Pittsburgh must replace 12 starters, including quarterback Nathan Peterman and running back James Conner. Second, the Panthers will need to deal with the loss of offensive coordinator Matt Canada, who is among the most brilliant offensive minds in college football. His replacement, Shawn Watson, didnāt exactly excel in his last OC role at Texas. Third, and probably most important, the Panthers have a brutal early-season schedule.
They open the season against FCS national runner-up Youngstown State, go on the road to play Penn State and then host Oklahoma State before traveling to play Georgia Tech. The rest of the schedule is better, but thatās a brutal four-game stretch to begin the season for a team with plenty of questions at the start of it.
Big Ten ā Michigan Wolverines
Some teams have to replace a little and some teams have to replace a lot. Then thereās Michigan.
The Wolverines bring back just five starters off a 10-3 team a year ago, including a single defensive starter from a unit that finished second nationally in points allowed. There are replacements waiting in the wings for Michigan without question ā Jim Harbaughās proven himself an elite recruiter since he arrived at Michigan. It just seems impossible for the Wolverines to be as good as they were a year ago in arguably college footballās best division with so little returning experience.
Michiganās schedule does it no favors either with a non-conference matchup with Florida and road games against Penn State and Wisconsin on the docket.
Harbaugh and his coaching staff will have the Wolverines contending for titles for years to come. It just won't happen this year.
Big 12 ā West Virginia Mountaineers
West Virginia, much like Michigan, must replace a massive amount of production with 14 starters departing from last yearās 10-3 team. Thereās plenty of hype around the Mountaineers new quarterback Will Grier, and rightly so. But West Virginia must also replace eight starters from what was the Big 12ās second-best defensive unit a year ago.
Before 2016, head coach Dana Holgorsen had never led the Mountaineers to better than a 5-4 record in conference play. West Virginia has certainly adjusted to the Big 12 since it entered the conference, yet the fact remains the Mountaineers feasted on the Big 12 during a down year in 2016.
The Big 12 promises to be much better in 2017, and the road will be much more difficult for the Mountaineers.
It doesnāt help that West Virginiaās only bye week of the season comes after a Week 4 matchup with Kansas. After that the Mountaineers will play eight straight games without a break (even Iowa State is expected to be strong in 2017).
Pac-12 ā Utah Utes
It took Utah a few years to get adjusted to the Pac-12, but the Utes have been excellent the last three seasons with a combined 28-11 record. Kyle Whittingham has his own style ā the Utes are physical and mine under-recruited talent ā and itās worked.
That said, Utah returns just 11 starters and drew a brutal cross-division schedule with road games against Oregon and Washington and an early-season matchup at home with Stanford. Add in a road game with USC and a non-conference road game against BYU, and the schedule could not set up much more difficult.
Utahās recruited well and Whittingham is among the most underrated coaches in the country, but itās going to be tough to overcome the teamās departed talent and schedule in 2017.
SEC ā Texas A&M Aggies
Letās get this out of the way first: Texas A&M still features plenty of top-end talent in 2017.
Christian Kirk and Armani Watts are potential first-round draft picks, John Chavis is among the nationās top defensive coordinators and Kevin Sumlinās recruited well since he arrived at Texas A&M. But as I wrote last season, the Aggies' window for championships in the near future closed after midseason losses to Alabama and Mississippi State.
Myles Garrett is gone, Daeshon Hall is gone, Trevor Knight is gone, Josh Reynolds and a large chunk of the Aggies high-profile receiving corps are gone. A year ago, with all of those players, the Aggies still stumbled to an 8-5 finish ā to be fair, injuries played a large role in that. Without the players mentioned above, and with a dearth of depth in the front seven and questions at quarterback, things donāt look great for Texas A&M's status as a fringe contender in 2017.
The SEC West remains a hazard to navigate, and road games against UCLA and Florida donāt help matters. The Aggies three-year streak of 8-5 campaigns will end in 2017. Things will just trend in the wrong direction for Sumlin, who is in desperate need of a breakout season.
Thursday 10: Power Five teams primed to break out, tumble in 2017
