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Bama News
Nick Saban has made Bama bettors rich in season openers
Alabama is 12-1 against the spread in season openers since hiring Nick Saban in 2007. Bettors who have risked $1,000 per game have made nearly $10,000 in profits.
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There are at least two unwritten rules to betting on college sports.
Never pick a 16 seed over a 1 seed in your NCAA Tournament bracket. And never bet against Nick Saban in a season opener.
Both have lost once: Virginia to UMBC on March 16, 2018, and Alabama (-22) vs. West Virginia on Aug. 30, 2014 (the Tide won 33-23). It may happen again, but thatās a strong track record.
Saban is 12-1 against the spread and 13-0 straight up in season openers at Alabama. His Crimson Tide teams have won their first game of the season by an average of 29.5 points per game despite facing four preseason AP Top 10 teams and two others ranked No. 20.
Oddsmakers often have inflated the number their power ratings suggested to try to get someone, anyone, to bet on Bamaās opponent and therefore balance their liability. It has not worked.
If you had blindly bet the same amount on all of Alabamaās season openers under Saban, hereās how much money you would have made:
| Standard Bet Size | Profit |
|---|---|
| $10 | $99.20 |
| $100 | $992 |
| $1,000 | $9,920 |
| $10,000 | $99,200 |
Keep in mind that you should only bet money you can afford to lose, and that past results donāt guarantee future performance. But thatās quite a track record.
I bet Alabama at -21.5 in look-ahead lines last week. Circa Sports, the first sportsbook to release college football lines for this week, opened the number at Bama -22.
At least one sportsbook adjusted the number to Alabama -28.5 by early Monday afternoon.
First-year head coaches are 3-12 ATS against the opening lines, according to Brad Powers, though theyāve been a popular fade for bettors.
Missouri coach Eliah Drinkwitz, whom the Tigers hired from Appalachian State, will be without at least 12 players in his first game as an SEC head coach.
The top-to-bottom structure of Sabanās program seems ideal after an unusual offseason impacted by COVID-19.
If youāre looking to bet the game now, youāve missed the best price. But itās hard to recommend any bet against Saban in his teamās first game of the season.
Will historic betting totals continue?
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa shattered records as Alabamaās starter the last two seasons.
Of note to bettors: prior to the 2018 season, the closing line on over/unders for Alabama games had reached 60 points just four times in school history.
In Tagovailoaās two seasons as the starter, Alabama averaged totals of 62.1 (2018) and 60.5 (2019). Tide games featured a total of 60+ points on 17 different occasions.
Alabama returns potential NFL first-round picks at offensive tackle (Alex Leatherwood), receiver (DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle) and running back (Najee Harris). It seems that the Tide may lean more on the running game, but it is well equipped to score in bunches yet again.
Offshore sportsbook 5Dimes, one of the only places with a total posted for Alabama-Missouri as of Monday afternoon, set the over/under at 55.5.
It will be interesting to see if oddsmakers continue offering huge totals on Alabama games, by historical standards, or if theyāll reduce their over/unders in a post-Tagovailoa world.
