| NEWS Nick Saban has made Bama bettors rich in season openers- AL.com

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There are at least two unwritten rules to betting on college sports.

Never pick a 16 seed over a 1 seed in your NCAA Tournament bracket. And never bet against Nick Saban in a season opener.

Both have lost once: Virginia to UMBC on March 16, 2018, and Alabama (-22) vs. West Virginia on Aug. 30, 2014 (the Tide won 33-23). It may happen again, but that’s a strong track record.

Saban is 12-1 against the spread and 13-0 straight up in season openers at Alabama. His Crimson Tide teams have won their first game of the season by an average of 29.5 points per game despite facing four preseason AP Top 10 teams and two others ranked No. 20.

Oddsmakers often have inflated the number their power ratings suggested to try to get someone, anyone, to bet on Bama’s opponent and therefore balance their liability. It has not worked.

If you had blindly bet the same amount on all of Alabama’s season openers under Saban, here’s how much money you would have made:


Standard Bet SizeProfit
$10$99.20
$100$992
$1,000$9,920
$10,000$99,200


Keep in mind that you should only bet money you can afford to lose, and that past results don’t guarantee future performance. But that’s quite a track record.

I bet Alabama at -21.5 in look-ahead lines last week. Circa Sports, the first sportsbook to release college football lines for this week, opened the number at Bama -22.

At least one sportsbook adjusted the number to Alabama -28.5 by early Monday afternoon.

First-year head coaches are 3-12 ATS against the opening lines, according to Brad Powers, though they’ve been a popular fade for bettors.

Missouri coach Eliah Drinkwitz, whom the Tigers hired from Appalachian State, will be without at least 12 players in his first game as an SEC head coach.

The top-to-bottom structure of Saban’s program seems ideal after an unusual offseason impacted by COVID-19.

If you’re looking to bet the game now, you’ve missed the best price. But it’s hard to recommend any bet against Saban in his team’s first game of the season.

Will historic betting totals continue?

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa shattered records as Alabama’s starter the last two seasons.

Of note to bettors: prior to the 2018 season, the closing line on over/unders for Alabama games had reached 60 points just four times in school history.

In Tagovailoa’s two seasons as the starter, Alabama averaged totals of 62.1 (2018) and 60.5 (2019). Tide games featured a total of 60+ points on 17 different occasions.

Alabama returns potential NFL first-round picks at offensive tackle (Alex Leatherwood), receiver (DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle) and running back (Najee Harris). It seems that the Tide may lean more on the running game, but it is well equipped to score in bunches yet again.

Offshore sportsbook 5Dimes, one of the only places with a total posted for Alabama-Missouri as of Monday afternoon, set the over/under at 55.5.

It will be interesting to see if oddsmakers continue offering huge totals on Alabama games, by historical standards, or if they’ll reduce their over/unders in a post-Tagovailoa world.
 
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