planomateo
Member
This something Peter King talked about in today's MMQB. Would be interesting to see how this compares to College football. I hit up PFF on twitter to see if they have the stats.
Stat of the Week
The 2015 season was the seventh straight year for an increase in the number of defensive snaps in the NFL with five defensive back or more on the field. Per Pro Football Focus, here is the percentage of plays in NFL games with five DBs or more on the field in every season since 2008:
2008: 43.4%
2009: 45.1%
2010: 48.8%
2011: 52.5%
2012: 54.4%
2013: 58.3%
2014: 60.3%
2015: 63.4%
This is revolutionary, really, and something we donāt talk about nearly enough. Five years ago, about half the defensive snaps in the league occurred with four defensive backs on the field; last season, it was almost two-thirds of the snaps with five or more defensive backs on the field per snap.
So why does this portend a revolution at the tip of the draft? Easy.
The Titans, holders of the first pick in the draft, will have a chance to make a deal. The Titans have received significant interest in the pick. I believe it is now 50-50 whether Tennessee will trade it or keep it. Rookie Tennessee GM Jon Robinson is going to have to decide whether to accept an offerāpresumably by a team that wants one of the top two quarterbacks in the draft, Carson Wentz of North Dakota State or Calās Jared Goffāor to stay at number one and pick a player the Titans believe will be a cornerstone for years to come.
The leaders in the clubhouse for Tennessee are Laremy Tunsil, the Mississippi tackle, and defensive back Jalen Ramsey of Florida State. The Titans have a couple other players theyāre seriously consideringāaside from Tunsil and Ramsey, a Tennessean who really want to play close to homeābut those two are the most logical.
A defensive back has been picked first overall only one time, in 1956, in the history of the NFL. But understand these reasons why times are changing in the NFL. Last season, the NFL saw records fall for touchdown passes allowed (842), for highest completion rate for quarterbacks (.630) and for passer rating (90.2). Ramsey became an interesting X factor for those reasons, and because the Titans are so desperate for help at both tackle and corner.
The pick will probably come down to Tunsil or Ramsey for Tennessee. Both will visit the Titans in the coming weeks, and that will provide more clarity. Itās been thought that Tunsil was more logical, but there are a few things making Tennessee do more homework on him. He is a natural left tackle, to be sure. But he isnāt a classic downhill left tackle, which the Titans want; they just traded for bullish back DeMarco Murray and want to run the ball significantly. And players with history in a college spread offense, like Tunsil, have to adjust, and thatās no sure thing.
The NFL, as the Pro Football Focus numbers show, has transitioned into more of a three-down passing league. Ramsey had only three interceptions in the past three college seasons at Florida State, but he seems the most pro-ready corner in this draft. Heās a 6-1, 210-pound specimen with the ability to cover the kind of big receivers the league is fielding today. He can play cornerback, he can move inside and cover the slot receiver, and he can play a center-field kind of safety if need be. Heās the kind of versatile defensive back every coach wants. The Titans have a crying need at tackle, after allowing more sacks than any team in football last fall. But they also need a corner and a nickel defender as well, and defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau would froth at the chance to use a player with the blitzing and tackling skills of Ramsey.
So ā¦ do not assume Tennessee is locked into Tunsil. Robinson certainly could take him. But the top of the draft is in flux, and I will not be surprised if in the next three weeks the Titans move the pick for an extra high pick or picksāeven though thereās not the Andrew Luck or Marcus Mariota out there to move up and grab. But there are teams like San Francisco or Los Angeles or Philadelphia that might want a quarterback, and might be desperate enough to overpay for the top pick.
Stat of the Week
The 2015 season was the seventh straight year for an increase in the number of defensive snaps in the NFL with five defensive back or more on the field. Per Pro Football Focus, here is the percentage of plays in NFL games with five DBs or more on the field in every season since 2008:
2008: 43.4%
2009: 45.1%
2010: 48.8%
2011: 52.5%
2012: 54.4%
2013: 58.3%
2014: 60.3%
2015: 63.4%
This is revolutionary, really, and something we donāt talk about nearly enough. Five years ago, about half the defensive snaps in the league occurred with four defensive backs on the field; last season, it was almost two-thirds of the snaps with five or more defensive backs on the field per snap.
So why does this portend a revolution at the tip of the draft? Easy.
The Titans, holders of the first pick in the draft, will have a chance to make a deal. The Titans have received significant interest in the pick. I believe it is now 50-50 whether Tennessee will trade it or keep it. Rookie Tennessee GM Jon Robinson is going to have to decide whether to accept an offerāpresumably by a team that wants one of the top two quarterbacks in the draft, Carson Wentz of North Dakota State or Calās Jared Goffāor to stay at number one and pick a player the Titans believe will be a cornerstone for years to come.
The leaders in the clubhouse for Tennessee are Laremy Tunsil, the Mississippi tackle, and defensive back Jalen Ramsey of Florida State. The Titans have a couple other players theyāre seriously consideringāaside from Tunsil and Ramsey, a Tennessean who really want to play close to homeābut those two are the most logical.
A defensive back has been picked first overall only one time, in 1956, in the history of the NFL. But understand these reasons why times are changing in the NFL. Last season, the NFL saw records fall for touchdown passes allowed (842), for highest completion rate for quarterbacks (.630) and for passer rating (90.2). Ramsey became an interesting X factor for those reasons, and because the Titans are so desperate for help at both tackle and corner.
The pick will probably come down to Tunsil or Ramsey for Tennessee. Both will visit the Titans in the coming weeks, and that will provide more clarity. Itās been thought that Tunsil was more logical, but there are a few things making Tennessee do more homework on him. He is a natural left tackle, to be sure. But he isnāt a classic downhill left tackle, which the Titans want; they just traded for bullish back DeMarco Murray and want to run the ball significantly. And players with history in a college spread offense, like Tunsil, have to adjust, and thatās no sure thing.
The NFL, as the Pro Football Focus numbers show, has transitioned into more of a three-down passing league. Ramsey had only three interceptions in the past three college seasons at Florida State, but he seems the most pro-ready corner in this draft. Heās a 6-1, 210-pound specimen with the ability to cover the kind of big receivers the league is fielding today. He can play cornerback, he can move inside and cover the slot receiver, and he can play a center-field kind of safety if need be. Heās the kind of versatile defensive back every coach wants. The Titans have a crying need at tackle, after allowing more sacks than any team in football last fall. But they also need a corner and a nickel defender as well, and defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau would froth at the chance to use a player with the blitzing and tackling skills of Ramsey.
So ā¦ do not assume Tennessee is locked into Tunsil. Robinson certainly could take him. But the top of the draft is in flux, and I will not be surprised if in the next three weeks the Titans move the pick for an extra high pick or picksāeven though thereās not the Andrew Luck or Marcus Mariota out there to move up and grab. But there are teams like San Francisco or Los Angeles or Philadelphia that might want a quarterback, and might be desperate enough to overpay for the top pick.
