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Missouri Tigers
Head coach: Barry Odom (11-14, third year)
2017 record and S&P+ ranking: 7-6 (35th)
Projected 2018 record and S&P+ ranking: 7-5 (30th)
Five key points:
He had nine months to find a rapport with defensive coordinator DeMontie Cross, with whom he had produced lackluster results in year one, and hone what amounted to a new 4-2-5 structure with a nickelback in place of a strongside linebacker.
He had nine months to prep a young corps of cornerbacks and find the right No. 3 receiver to line up with JāMon Moore and slot man Johnathon Johnson.
In September 2017, he quickly found he had mostly wasted those nine months.
After a 51-14 loss to Auburn, Odom went on a rant that made headlines. āI want to get one thing real straight: Iām going to win here.ā āItās a turnaround. I donāt like it, I want to win right now, but thatās not the hand Iām given.ā āIām the man to go get it done.ā āI got a guy thatās the third-team left tackle from Rock Bridge High School thatās got a Twitter account, heās got 12 followers, and he wants to put out how terrible we are.ā
It was impressive. It hit every note a paranoid, frustrated coach can. And when Mizzou ripped off six straight wins beginning a few weeks later, the rant was called āgalvanizing,ā deemed a catalyst. And hey, maybe it was.
Or maybe he and his staff figured out how to get the right guys in the right places (against the right opponents).
The offense began to turn around basically the moment Hall entered and gave defenses one too many deep threats to contain.
The defense got roughed up for a couple more weeks, giving up 6.4 yards per play to Kentucky and nine per play to Georgia. But when the schedule eased up, the Tigers organized.
The Tigers painted two different pictures in 2017, and we have no idea which was the more accurate one.
One one hand, even adjusting for opponent (in the average percentile performance figures above), Mizzou was dramatically better over the second half, playing like a top-20 team after playing like a top-100 team.
On the other hand, all the good teams came up early, and Mizzouās six-win streak included Idaho, UConn, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, and collapsing Florida and Tennessee teams. When they got Michael Dicksonād in the Texas Bowl, it meant the Tigers ended up 0-5 against S&P+ top 50 teams and 7-1 against everyone else.
Which was the real Mizzou narrative? S&P+ is impressed by domination of lesser opponents ā your performance against bad teams is generally as good a predictor as your performance against good ones ā and gave Mizzou a final ranking of 35th. With quite a bit of returning production, the Tigers are projected 30th, second-best in the SEC East, this fall.
The dichotomy was too stark to forget, though, and Mizzou still has a lot to prove.
Despite a miserable September, Drew Lockās junior campaign finished with 3,964 yards, an SEC-record 44 touchdowns, and a passer rating of 165.7, second among returning FBS QBs (behind UCFās McKenzie Milton). When he submitted his name for feedback from the NFL draft committee, however, he was basically told, āWe need to see you in a real offense.ā NFL scouts arenāt particularly fond of the Briles-style spread that coordinator Josh Heupel had created.
That put Odom in a bind. When Heupel took the UCF head coaching job, Odom had to find both a long-term replacement and a guy who could, in the short-term, help Lock in proving he can read defenses (and more of the field), make intermediate passes to go with last yearās diet of screens and deep balls, etc.
Odomās choice came out of left field: Derek Dooley.
Yes, that Derek Dooley.
The former Louisiana Tech and Tennessee head coach spent the last four seasons as Dallasā wide receivers coach. The odd trajectory of his career ā he went straight from Nick Saban position coach to HC in 2007 ā means heās never actually been a coordinator.
Dooley knows the SEC, and he knows āpro-styleā concepts (at this point, āpro-styleā basically just means āmoreā ā more reads for the QB, more protections for the line, and more potential routes). Theoretically, heās got a cast that can handle āmore.ā
In theory, Dooley can simply build complexity on top of what Heupel had established, giving Mizzou the capability to hit the brakes (Heupelās offense was fourth in Adj. Pace last year) and come up with a Plan B for when solid defenses slow down the base attack.
Itās not hard to see the potential downside, though. Going from simple to complex, from āspreadā to āpro-styleā ā though those terms grow more fungible each year ā could lead to you misplacing your strengths in the name of fixing weaknesses.
And by god, if Dooley prevents us from seeing another year of Lock-to-Hall deep balls, he should be banished from college football.
If nothing else, weāll find out what Lock, Hall, Johnson, Okwuegbunam, Crockett/Rountree, etc., are capable of this year, for better or worse. Dooley, too.
Head coach: Barry Odom (11-14, third year)
2017 record and S&P+ ranking: 7-6 (35th)
Projected 2018 record and S&P+ ranking: 7-5 (30th)
Five key points:
- Midway through his second season, both Odom and his team looked overwhelmed. Then they won six in a row to turn the season and, potentially, Odomās tenure around.
- The turnaround happened against pretty weak competition, though. Can an experienced squad actually beat some decent teams?
- QB Drew Lock leads one of the most proven, explosive offenses in the country. The only question, really, is at offensive coordinator, where Derek Dooley takes over for Josh Heupel.
- The run defense should be sturdy, with serious star power at DT and LB. But both the pass rush and safety corps are unknowns ā who needs to run if you can pass at will?
- S&P+ gives Mizzou at least a 46 percent win probability in 10 of 12 games. Will the Tigers take another step forward with added offensive complexity? Or will they forget their strengths?
He had nine months to find a rapport with defensive coordinator DeMontie Cross, with whom he had produced lackluster results in year one, and hone what amounted to a new 4-2-5 structure with a nickelback in place of a strongside linebacker.
He had nine months to prep a young corps of cornerbacks and find the right No. 3 receiver to line up with JāMon Moore and slot man Johnathon Johnson.
In September 2017, he quickly found he had mostly wasted those nine months.
- Cross was fired by mid-September, and Odom absorbed Crossā play-calling duties and role as linebackers coach.
- Starting WR Dimetrios Mason averaged 4.8 yards per target with a miserable 36 percent success rate and quit the team a few weeks in. He was replaced by Emanuel Hall, who dominated, averaging 13.8 yards per target with a 51 percent success rate.
- The five-man defensive backfield got wrecked by bad positioning and communication throughout September. Nickel Kaleb Prewett moved to free safety, and SLB Brandon Lee re-entered what became once again a 4-3 base.
After a 51-14 loss to Auburn, Odom went on a rant that made headlines. āI want to get one thing real straight: Iām going to win here.ā āItās a turnaround. I donāt like it, I want to win right now, but thatās not the hand Iām given.ā āIām the man to go get it done.ā āI got a guy thatās the third-team left tackle from Rock Bridge High School thatās got a Twitter account, heās got 12 followers, and he wants to put out how terrible we are.ā
It was impressive. It hit every note a paranoid, frustrated coach can. And when Mizzou ripped off six straight wins beginning a few weeks later, the rant was called āgalvanizing,ā deemed a catalyst. And hey, maybe it was.
Or maybe he and his staff figured out how to get the right guys in the right places (against the right opponents).
The offense began to turn around basically the moment Hall entered and gave defenses one too many deep threats to contain.
The defense got roughed up for a couple more weeks, giving up 6.4 yards per play to Kentucky and nine per play to Georgia. But when the schedule eased up, the Tigers organized.
The Tigers painted two different pictures in 2017, and we have no idea which was the more accurate one.
One one hand, even adjusting for opponent (in the average percentile performance figures above), Mizzou was dramatically better over the second half, playing like a top-20 team after playing like a top-100 team.
On the other hand, all the good teams came up early, and Mizzouās six-win streak included Idaho, UConn, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, and collapsing Florida and Tennessee teams. When they got Michael Dicksonād in the Texas Bowl, it meant the Tigers ended up 0-5 against S&P+ top 50 teams and 7-1 against everyone else.
Which was the real Mizzou narrative? S&P+ is impressed by domination of lesser opponents ā your performance against bad teams is generally as good a predictor as your performance against good ones ā and gave Mizzou a final ranking of 35th. With quite a bit of returning production, the Tigers are projected 30th, second-best in the SEC East, this fall.
The dichotomy was too stark to forget, though, and Mizzou still has a lot to prove.
Despite a miserable September, Drew Lockās junior campaign finished with 3,964 yards, an SEC-record 44 touchdowns, and a passer rating of 165.7, second among returning FBS QBs (behind UCFās McKenzie Milton). When he submitted his name for feedback from the NFL draft committee, however, he was basically told, āWe need to see you in a real offense.ā NFL scouts arenāt particularly fond of the Briles-style spread that coordinator Josh Heupel had created.
That put Odom in a bind. When Heupel took the UCF head coaching job, Odom had to find both a long-term replacement and a guy who could, in the short-term, help Lock in proving he can read defenses (and more of the field), make intermediate passes to go with last yearās diet of screens and deep balls, etc.
Odomās choice came out of left field: Derek Dooley.
Yes, that Derek Dooley.
The former Louisiana Tech and Tennessee head coach spent the last four seasons as Dallasā wide receivers coach. The odd trajectory of his career ā he went straight from Nick Saban position coach to HC in 2007 ā means heās never actually been a coordinator.
Dooley knows the SEC, and he knows āpro-styleā concepts (at this point, āpro-styleā basically just means āmoreā ā more reads for the QB, more protections for the line, and more potential routes). Theoretically, heās got a cast that can handle āmore.ā
- Lock enters his fourth year as a starter, having taken over for a suspended/struggling Maty Mauk during a miserable 2015. His trajectory under Heupel was dramatic.
- Moore is now a Green Bay Packer, but Hall and Johnson return after combining for 74 catches, 1,541 yards, and 14 touchdowns last year. Hall averaged an absurd 24.8 yards per catch, and weāll find out if he can handle a more fleshed-out route tree. (Weāll also find out if he can stay healthy. Thatās part of the reason he didnāt play much in September. He also missed the Texas Bowl and the spring game.)
- Tight end Albert Okwuegbunam was another reason for Mizzouās surge. He began as a third-string redshirt freshman and finished with 11 touchdowns, most in FBS for a TE. He was the only P5 tight end to combine a marginal efficiency of at least plus-23 percent with a marginal explosiveness of at least plus-0.1 points per successful play, and he might be the best returning tight end in the country.
- Running backs Damarea Crockett and Larry Rountree III are back. Crockett rushed for 1,062 yards as a freshman in 2016 before missing half of 2017 with injury. In Crockettās absence, Rountree split with then-senior Ish Witter and posted sturdier efficiency numbers than Crockett.
- An enormous, experienced line returns after ranking third in Adj. Sack Rate and 15th in Adj. Line Yards last year. All five starters are back and average a meaty 6ā5, 328 pounds. Mizzouās run game was underrated last year (22nd in Rushing S&P+) and could get even better. Plus, only two starters (right tackle Paul Adams and left guard Kevin Pendleton) are seniors, meaning Lockās 2019 replacement will benefit from a seasoned front.
In theory, Dooley can simply build complexity on top of what Heupel had established, giving Mizzou the capability to hit the brakes (Heupelās offense was fourth in Adj. Pace last year) and come up with a Plan B for when solid defenses slow down the base attack.
Itās not hard to see the potential downside, though. Going from simple to complex, from āspreadā to āpro-styleā ā though those terms grow more fungible each year ā could lead to you misplacing your strengths in the name of fixing weaknesses.
And by god, if Dooley prevents us from seeing another year of Lock-to-Hall deep balls, he should be banished from college football.
If nothing else, weāll find out what Lock, Hall, Johnson, Okwuegbunam, Crockett/Rountree, etc., are capable of this year, for better or worse. Dooley, too.
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