🏈 Maybe I'm being cynical, but...

[silvermetalflake]

Being a newbie Tide fan (as of 2009), most everyone on this site most likely knows more than me, but I can't help but to question the picks of the pros who rate the Tide so highly for this season.... not that I'm complaining!

Having read and continuing to read numerous College Football magazines for the coming season, it seems most rate Bama #1 or #2 and a strong prospect to reach the BCS bowl game.

Now, while I am sure the boys will do well, especially with their out-of-conference games, I cannot for the life of me see how a team with a virgin quarterback(s) has any hope of making it all the way and to a 14th title unless that quarterback becomes an overnight phoneme.

So... you guys... am I missing something or am I just stating the obvious >?

 

[Tider27]

Being a newbie Tide fan (as of 2009), most everyone on this site most likely knows more than me, but I can't help but to question the picks of the pros who rate the Tide so highly for this season.... not that I'm complaining!

Having read and continuing to read numerous College Football magazines for the coming season, it seems most rate Bama #1 or #2 and a strong prospect to reach the BCS bowl game.

Now, while I am sure the boys will do well, especially with their out-of-conference games, I cannot for the life of me see how a team with a virgin quarterback(s) has any hope of making it all the way and to a 14th title unless that quarterback becomes an overnight phoneme.

So... you guys... am I missing something or am I just stating the obvious >?

Well, logical Bama fans realize it'll be a hard task with a new QB at the helm. Of course it didn't hurt with G-Mac in 2009, but he had a ton of knowledge of the playbook. Most take the stance of "cautiously optimistic" when it comes to the 2011 season, but the media ultimately has to make picks for business. Honestly, who else are they going to pick to fill Bama's spot?

 

[Brandon Van de Graaff]

This offense doesn't need a phonem at QB to win... and as evidenced by 2009, they don't need an experienced QB either. I'm not as comfortable with our QB situation was I was the past 2 years myself, but looking around the nation, who else is really better than us on paper right now? Hard to find even a tiny handful of teams... Our roster is pretty loaded right now with some pretty stout talent.

 

[ElephantStomp]

I'm not even a decent QB (I'm horrible at best) and I think I could win at least half our games with this offense. Okay, I might be stretching a bit. I really like our chances, although I do realize it's going to be a tough task (The SEC makes liars out of people every year), but I think the reason the media has rated so high is because we bring a lot of our offense back and 99% of our defense, which makes for a pretty good recipe.

Our QB situation doesn't bring as much confidence as the past two years, but it does still bring plenty of confidence. Although, neither Sims or AJ don't have the same amount of experience in our system they do bring a lot of talent to the table and with the cupboards as loaded as they are this offense could make a decent QB look good, so it should make two very talented QBs look spectacular.

As what everybody else has said who are they going to put above Bama? On paper even non-UA fans have to say we're either #1 or #2 in the country. I think the reason most have OU ahead of us is because of their QB being in the system for a couple of years, but they have dang good team.

 

[jdpas29]

i think Alabama is a top 15 team this year easily. i don't think Alabama is going to be a top 5 team however. Alabama's running game combined with a solid defense should be able to solidify a 10 win season, but new,young QB would usually account for a loss or maybe two. then throw in the fact that our receiving corps (sans julio) may not be quite the juggernaut that we've had and you have a Bama team that may struggle to come from behind. i am also not sold on our defensive secondary. i know that many here are and i hope they are right, but the number of breakdowns last year and the lack of QB pressure in some of our outings has me concerned.

i'm not here to pee on the parade. i just don't think it's quite as good as some do. :eating:

 

[silvermetalflake]

i think Alabama is a top 15 team this year easily. i don't think Alabama is going to be a top 5 team however. Alabama's running game combined with a solid defense should be able to solidify a 10 win season, but new,young QB would usually account for a loss or maybe two. then throw in the fact that our receiving corps (sans julio) may not be quite the juggernaut that we've had and you have a Bama team that may struggle to come from behind. i am also not sold on our defensive secondary. i know that many here are and i hope they are right, but the number of breakdowns last year and the lack of QB pressure in some of our outings has me concerned.

i'm not here to pee on the parade. i just don't think it's quite as good as some do. :eating:

You're not peeing at all; you're a realist, and I think 10 wins is a solid bet and sound prediction.
I'm just looking at last year, when the offense and defense were better, and then team equally highly rated with over anticipation of prestigious placing and big bowl chances. Sadly... a few last minute boo-boos here and there (LSU), and a disastrous Iron Bowl kept the Tide from proving they were the best in the country easily (The Sparters learned the hard way).

Now.. without Greg, Julio, Hanks, Ingram and others... well.... you do the math in contrast with this years team vs last year's team and their final placing. To say the 2011 squad is a bet for #1 or #2 or even #3 this year is extremely generous. But as another board member pointed out... Bama = business, and the business of prediction in the media generally has to include the Tide whether it adds up or not.

As for Porter's "who's better than us on paper?" question.... well in terms of QB? I can think of a dozen or so guys I'd rather have at the helm, and who would give the Tide a infinitely better shot at the big one. Y'know, in Vegas it's always the betting mantra to go "with the better QB".

Question: When was a the last time a rookie QB took his team to the BCS bowl and won? Without checking I'm thinking Tebow? But.....????

 

[TheChief]

With the best defense in the nation, a great offensive line, and an outstanding running back corps the Tide should win the national championship even with what some would consider an inexperienced and possibly ineffective quarterback.

My quote from 1992.


See any similarity?


Four out of five number one recruiting classes in the nation... The Tide has the talent.

 

[TheChief]

i think Alabama is a top 15 team this year easily. i don't think Alabama is going to be a top 5 team however. Alabama's running game combined with a solid defense should be able to solidify a 10 win season, but new,young QB would usually account for a loss or maybe two. then throw in the fact that our receiving corps (sans julio) may not be quite the juggernaut that we've had and you have a Bama team that may struggle to come from behind. i am also not sold on our defensive secondary. i know that many here are and i hope they are right, but the number of breakdowns last year and the lack of QB pressure in some of our outings has me concerned.

i'm not here to pee on the parade. i just don't think it's quite as good as some do. :eating:

I'll bring this thread up again at the end of the year. They will win ten games... in the first ten games of the season.

Let me just ask this: Who do you have beating them? What three teams?

 

['65 Cobra]

First of all, Fox Sports has us at #9 preseason. Having said that, however, I am of the mind that the #2 ranking we have in many pubs is about right - for now. And I like us better at #2, than #1 - keeps us hungry. Here's why the "realists" are selling us short:

- Defense; the single biggest reason we lost three games last year was that we gave up big plays in the secondary - one of which was b/c our best DB (Mark Barron) had torn his pectoral muscle. Others, b/c we were playing youngsters. This year, that unit is far more experienced and will play lights out AND we have depth there.
- Defense; last year two of our biggest front 7 playmakers (Upshaw and Hightower) were either playing with injury or coming back from major injury. Everyone knows the first year back after knee reconstruction is usually not good. Both players were beasts against MSU in the bowl game and they will be dominant this year.
- Defense; depth. We are very, very deep this year with talent AND experience. Defense wins championships (unless you cheat like the Barn).
- Offensive line; our line will be dominant this year because of all the returning starters that have played together AND incredible depth should one or two go down.
- Receivers; yes receivers. First of all, our existing stable is VERY good despite the departure of Julio. Maze, Hanks, Carter, etc., etc. are all top tier talent and with Julio gone, we will be spreading the ball around alot more than when Julio was here. These guys are good enough to warrant a double team. Last year teams doubled Julio and we still threw to him. This year, who will they double? We'll throw to someone else.
- QB; why does everyone assume that either AJ or Phillip will completely fall on their faces taking over the reigns? We do not rely heavily on stand-out QB play. Plus, GMac did pretty good taking over for John Parker, and going back, Namath dominated his first year, Sloan, dominated his first year, Stabler dominated his first year, John Parker had a 128.9 QB rating his first year, Jay Barker's first full year was a NC, - you get the point.
- Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacey; I don't really need to go into detail here. This year will resemble 2009 with respect to pounding the rock and wearing other teams down. We will bludgeon other teams again this year as we did in 2009.
- HUNGER and DESIRE; last year our team was complacent and under-achieved and they know it. They were humiliated with a second half collapse against Auburn. The performance against Michigan State was the preview performance for this year - this is what we are capable of and this is how we will play this year.

Time will bear it out...

 

[TerryP]

In my perspective, looking at a season that ends with a 10-3 record is a team that has underachieved: grossly underachieved.

There are a multitude of reasons that makes me feel this way. Here are just a few that come off the top of my head.

• Last year we made the 10 win mark. We did that while having 22 of our starters miss games due to injury. Some of those starters missed multiple games.
• Every coach at Alabama, with the exception of one, have had teams win 10 games in a season. That record stretches over six decades. Six, as in sixty years. And, a few of those coaches were far, far from qualified to lead the Tide in a head coaching position.
• We had 22 starters injured last season and due to that missed games. We had multiple starters, one who were integral parts of our team, miss more than one game due to injury.
• We had more than 22 players start a collegiate game for the first time in their career.
• We had nine new starters on defense last season.
• We have nine veteran starters return on defense this season.

I'm just getting started.

• This is the best secondary we've had at Alabama in Saban's tenure. Yes, that is my opinion. However, it is also an opinion held by more than a handful of coaches—both high school and collegiate—and the same thoughts are held by former players, sports writers, and more importantly the secondary itself. Right now, I'd be hard pressed to be convinced it is not a better group than '92.
• Overall, this is the best defense we've had since Saban has been here. How will it rank in our history? That's left to be determined.
• Sure, Julio is going to be missed. But, you have to take into account he only accounted for roughly 35% of our receptions last season. It isn't so much a situation where we have to have another Julio, but a situation where we need to disperse about 25-30 of his receptions to the other receivers. That's not as big of a deal as some make it out to be.
• There is only one team on our schedule that returns more starters than we do; Vandy.
• Arkansas comes in second in the number of returning starters (on our regular season schedule.) Right now, they have a new QB taking over and they are replacing both tackles. Is this a team that "threatens" your sense of having a better than average chance of making a run at a championship season. LSU brings more experienced players back in terms of balance; eight on offense and seven on defense.
• Over 90% of our top tacklers on defense return this year. On our schedule, Vandy returns just at 80%, Arkansas 73%, Tennessee 66%, and Florida with just over 53%. We had the fifth best defense in the nation last year, best in the SEC. And, we return practically all of it? Hmmm, and people wonder why I think it's going to be the best in the nation.
• Across the offensive line we have a combined number of 90 starts with these guys. LSU is the closest team behind us in the SEC in terms of total starts on the OL. Tennessee and Arkansas barely make it in the top 100, in the NCAA.
• We return 78% of our lettermen from last year. Vandy is right up there with us as it Tennessee. LSU and Florida both are hovering around 70%.
• First year starting QB is something to pay attention to, sure. But, we've got a QB's best friends sitting right there with him. How does that translate to opponents on our schedule? Arkansas has a great receiving corps, more than likely the best in the nation. So, would you rather have that receiving corps with a new QB when you are also replacing both tackles or be in our situation? Florida returns their QB. Would you rather be in their shoes with a brand new coaching staff or ours? LSU is a question to be answered. In the first two of these situations anyone would choose to be in our shoes. LSU is a toss up. (They made their smartest move over the off-season replacing Crowton with Kragthorpe as OC.) Bottom line, it is not going to be up to our QB to win games. It never has been under Saban's staff.

I've got a box or two left of bullets and I could continue shooting but I'll take a pause and let you guys reflect.

Dodge might be a better word.

 

[rammerjammer]

Question: When was a the last time a rookie QB took his team to the BCS bowl and won? Without checking I'm thinking Tebow? But.....????

McElroy. He had only played in mop up duty until his junior year. (2009)

McAaron is in the same role that McElroy was in, back in 2009.

 

[CRMSNtide]

We should have a great defense, points are gone be scarce for the opponents of this team, and we should force plenty of turnovers.

I don't see the offense having to light up the score board to win games, we will run the ball and keep the time of possession in our favor.
TR should have a huge year running behind a veteran O-line, the guy is a super talent that will be out to make a big name for himself this year.
A new QB is somewhat of a concern but this is a great situation to break in a new one, he shouldn't be under pressure right away to put the team on his back, just play smart football.

 

[Crimson&WhiteGecko]

IMHO, the game is won & lost at the line of scrimmage. The DL just will not be an issue, especially w/ the LB corps we have behind them doing what they are designed to do. Last year, the OL was the liability in large part due to injuries, as Terry pointed out. This created some slight inexperience from not being together. However, it is up to the OL this year and B Jones has said several times that this unit will not be complacent as it was last year. If he is the leader of the OL to the caliber of M Johnson or A Caldwell, we are going to maul our competition. Our QB's will be able to step back & watch, as well as easily pick out targets. Another note on the QB's; can you think of a better secondary than 'Bama's to be practicing against? Yeah, me neither. AJ or Phillip will be ready.

 

[TerryP]

IMHO, the game is won & lost at the line of scrimmage. The DL just will not be an issue, especially w/ the LB corps we have behind them doing what they are designed to do. Last year, the OL was the liability in large part due to injuries, as Terry pointed out. This created some slight inexperience from not being together. However, it is up to the OL this year and B Jones has said several times that this unit will not be complacent as it was last year. If he is the leader of the OL to the caliber of M Johnson or A Caldwell, we are going to maul our competition. Our QB's will be able to step back & watch, as well as easily pick out targets. Another note on the QB's; can you think of a better secondary than 'Bama's to be practicing against? Yeah, me neither. AJ or Phillip will be ready.

On the other hand, it's pretty hard for a QB and WR to get their timing down in the summer drills when the WR's can't get open.

It's not a knock on our offense, but they've literally gone multiple series without a completion this summer.

 

[Tider27]

On the other hand, it's pretty hard for a QB and WR to get their timing down in the summer drills when the WR's can't get open.

It's not a knock on our offense, but they've literally gone multiple series without a completion this summer.

Imagine it's much of the same even with the 2's.

Interesting "problem" to have.

 

[BamaFan615]

Imagine it's much of the same even with the 2's.

Interesting "problem" to have.

See, this is my biggest "worry" about this team. We're breaking in a new quarterback with WR's that have not had the pressure of being the #1 and #2 guys. Julio drew the double-teams last year, leaving our other WR's in one-on-one situations. Which won't be the case this year.

Not saying that our WR's can't produce like they have the last couple of years...just that they're going to have to prove themselves. Our offense going multiple series without a completion has me worried a bit. Even against a secondary as stout as ours.

It might sound like I'm being down on our team right now, I'm not meaning to be. I'm extremely optimistic about our chances this year. A running game as stout as I expect ours to be this year will do wonders for a new QB and a passing game that is still trying to find more chemistry.

Gah, I can NOT WAIT til football season!

 

[silvermetalflake]

Cool. Thanks everyone for the observations and insights. You've definitely given me a lot to work with and think about as we near the moment of excitement. I'm going to the Bama / Razorbacks game (only my second game) and just can't sleep with the anticipation of it. Being in Tuscaloosa last year for the Tide / Georgia State game was just about the most amazing time ever and I know this one is going to top it 100x over!!!

 

[russb8903]

Cool. Thanks everyone for the observations and insights. You've definitely given me a lot to work with and think about as we near the moment of excitement. I'm going to the Bama / Razorbacks game (only my second game) and just can't sleep with the anticipation of it. Being in Tuscaloosa last year for the Tide / Georgia State game was just about the most amazing time ever and I know this one is going to top it 100x over!!!

Definitely will be. That is probably the only game I went to in college I would have ventured to call boring. A real game will be a whole new world for you.

 

[TerryP]

See, this is my biggest "worry" about this team. We're breaking in a new quarterback with WR's that have not had the pressure of being the #1 and #2 guys. Julio drew the double-teams last year, leaving our other WR's in one-on-one situations. Which won't be the case this year.

Not saying that our WR's can't produce like they have the last couple of years...just that they're going to have to prove themselves. Our offense going multiple series without a completion has me worried a bit. Even against a secondary as stout as ours.

It might sound like I'm being down on our team right now, I'm not meaning to be. I'm extremely optimistic about our chances this year. A running game as stout as I expect ours to be this year will do wonders for a new QB and a passing game that is still trying to find more chemistry.

Gah, I can NOT WAIT til football season!

I'd call worry about our WR corps—based on what I've posted—unwarranted at this point. It's akin to making a judgment on how a group is going to do solely on statistics from a scrimmage.

 

[Bamagreek]

You're not peeing at all; you're a realist, and I think 10 wins is a solid bet and sound prediction.
I'm just looking at last year, when the offense and defense were better, and then team equally highly rated with over anticipation of prestigious placing and big bowl chances. Sadly... a few last minute boo-boos here and there (LSU), and a disastrous Iron Bowl kept the Tide from proving they were the best in the country easily (The Sparters learned the hard way).

Now.. without Greg, Julio, Hanks, Ingram and others... well.... you do the math in contrast with this years team vs last year's team and their final placing. To say the 2011 squad is a bet for #1 or #2 or even #3 this year is extremely generous. But as another board member pointed out... Bama = business, and the business of prediction in the media generally has to include the Tide whether it adds up or not.

As for Porter's "who's better than us on paper?" question.... well in terms of QB? I can think of a dozen or so guys I'd rather have at the helm, and who would give the Tide a infinitely better shot at the big one. Y'know, in Vegas it's always the betting mantra to go "with the better QB".

Question: When was a the last time a rookie QB took his team to the BCS bowl and won? Without checking I'm thinking Tebow? But.....????

Didn't Greg McElroy take Alabama all the way to the championship as a 1st year starter? I think either A.J. or Sims can do the same.