The problem with this whole debate - aside from the inane blatherings of a particularly mind-numbing cajun - is that our O-line doesn't play against their O-line just as our D-Line doesn't play against theirs. Here are some interesting numbers comparing units against units.
[TABLE="class: sdi-data-wide"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: sdi-datahead-sub"]
Louisiana State Off vs
Alabama Def[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: sdi-datacell"]
372.1 yards
180.5 yards
4.3 yards/rush
1.7 yards/rush
8.3 yards/attempt
4.5 yards/attempt
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[TABLE="class: sdi-data-wide"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: sdi-datahead-sub"]
Alabama Off vs
Louisiana State Def[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: sdi-datacell"]
457.6 yards
251.4 yards
5.8 yards/rush
2.5 yards/rush
8 yards/attempt
5.4 yards/attempt
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Also, I thought I would look at some of the rankings of our competitors. For example, for team defense in points per game - probably the most important category - we rank #1 and LSU ranks #3. However, when I look at rankings of opponents, we have played against Penn State who is ranked #5, while LSU's highest ranking opponent is Florida at #16 who we have also played. We are also #1 in total defense (LSU is #3), passing defense (LSU is #4), and rushing defense (LSU is #6).
In scoring offense, it is more of a draw - we are ranked #14 and LSU is ranked #15. They get credit for having played Oregon, who is top 5 (and who plays in a PAC 12 conference with no defense to speak of). They played WVU at #18, but we played Arkansas at #19.
When I look at those big games, I see that Oregon put up 335 total yards against LSU and 18 first downs. WVU put up 533 yards and 28 first downs. In our game against Arkansas, the Hogs put up 226 yards and 14 first downs. Not sure Florida is a fair comparison since we knocked out their top two QBs and one of their top RBs the week before LSU played them. UT as a common opponent is a wash on the scoreboard - they couldnt' score on either of us - and a minor advantage for us in the stats: we held them to 155 yards and 6 first downs, (we put up 437 and 19), and LSU held them to 239 yards and 11 first downs (they put up 383 and 24).
All of these numbers simply corroborate what the pros are saying - Bama by about 4.0-4.5. HOWEVER, as I've said several times before; this is a payback fame for us. We have a serious score to settle from last year. We should have won last year and that may have changed our fortunes against Auburn knowing we could still win the West. We have a hungry, nasty team being smart and quiet this week and they will have serious payback on their minds and so will Saban as so many have implied he was out-coached by the Mad Hatter. Stats may be close, but we are going to pound them this year. I am seeing a double digit victory for us and then we'll have to be careful not to have a let-down against MSU, who gave LSU quite a hard time.