🏈 Looking at the fall: Schedule analysis on the SEC teams—first up, Auburn.

[TerryP]

From ESPN.

Today, we dissect Auburn's schedule as the Tigers enter the 2012 season with a new offensive coordinator and new defensive coordinator:

Nonconference opponents (with 2011 records)

Sept. 1: vs. Clemson (10-4), in Atlanta
Sept. 15: Louisiana-Monroe (4-8)
Nov. 3: New Mexico State (4-9)
Nov. 17: Alabama A&M (8-4)

SEC home games

Sept. 22: LSU
Oct. 6: Arkansas
Oct. 27: Texas A&M
Nov. 10: Georgia

SEC road games

Sept. 8: at Mississippi State
Oct. 13: at Ole Miss
Oct. 20: at Vanderbilt
Nov. 24: at Alabama

Gut-check time: LSU comes to the Plains on Sept. 22. The game will be played a month earlier than it was a year ago, and you can bet that nobody in Auburn's locker room will need to be reminded what happened the last time the two teams clashed. LSU embarrassed Auburn 45-10, triggering what was a humbling close to Auburn's regular season. The Tigers lost to LSU, Georgia and Alabama by a combined 101 points. If Auburn is going to make some noise in the Western Division race this coming season, it starts with LSU's visit that fourth Saturday in September. Arkansas visits two weeks later, and Auburn will need at least a split if the Tigers are going to be a factor come November.

Trap game: Vanderbilt proved last season that it's not going to be an easy out under James Franklin, especially at home. Auburn's Oct. 20 visit to Nashville comes on the heels of a trip to Ole Miss, and the second leg of a road swing in this league is always dicey.

Snoozer: The Nov. 3 game against New Mexico State is the second of four straight games at home for the Tigers, who have a couple of glorified scrimmages in November when you toss Alabama A&M into the mix two weeks later.

Telltale stretch: So much is riding on Auburn's start to the season -- Clemson in Atlanta in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game and then Mississippi State in Starkville the second week of the season. If those two home games against LSU on Sept. 22 and then Arkansas on Oct. 6 are going to mean much, it's imperative that Auburn take care of its business right out of the gate.

Final analysis: Simply surviving the first part of the schedule will be as important as anything for the Tigers in 2012. There's going to be a lot that's new on both offense and defense, so that could be to their advantage in those first couple of games. Teams will be guessing a little bit in terms of what to prepare for. The good news for the Tigers is that four of their last five games are at home. Gene Chizik is 20-3 at home as Auburn's head coach. The bye week also comes at a good time and is sandwiched between the key home dates with LSU and Arkansas. Auburn won't be able to survive a start as shaky as the one last season, not facing Clemson in the opener in Atlanta and then traveling to Mississippi State the second week of the season. The Tigers will need to be on top of their game from the outset because LSU comes to town a few weeks later, not to mention Arkansas, all before the midway point of the season. Again, though, if Auburn can make it through those first two games, seven of its next nine contests will be played in Jordan-Hare Stadium. The Tigers won eight games last season, and bettering that mark in 2012 is going to be a real challenge when you consider that four of the teams they face -- Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia and LSU -- will start the season ranked somewhere in the top 15 nationally.

 

[TerryP]

How do you see their schedule working out this season in terms of wins and losses? I'm in for calling their 2012 season at 8-4.

Why?

A few reasons:

One, I have a lot of respect for VanGorder. While it's been years since he's coached in the SEC he did well enough at UGA that it's a stretch of his career I remember. Add to that, if my numbers/eligibility status is correct, they'll be returning their front seven from last season.

Another key is mentioned in the write up by Low. They run through a stretch of their schedule where seven of their nine games are at home.

Losses: LSU, Alabama, and Georgia.

Toss-ups, where I think they'll drop at least one: A&M, Arkansas, and Clemson.

What are your thoughts?

 

[bamaraider]

9-3, I think they get the upset vs LSU, beat Arkansas but have losses to Clemson, Georgia, and Alabama. They'll run through the rest

I'm just assuming that their new DC and experience on Defense will make them into a top 20 D.

Their offense is questionable, they really don't have a RB that can run you over and wear down defenses, they're all speedy type along with an uncertain QB with an O-Line that struggled last year.

I pick 9-3 because of home field advantage, playing @Jordan Hare is really one of the toughest venues in all of College Football. The crowd noise is unbearable, the team seems to be really prepped up at home (as you mentioned Chizik is 20-3 at home).

Side-note: sorry if this wasn't really super analyzed, kinda of early over here :/.

 

[BAMAboy51]

I agree with the 8-4 maybe even 7-5. But there is no way they will beat lsu. But yet again this is the SEC and anything can happen on any given day.

 

[psychojoe]

They are clearly not on a talent level with Ala., LSU or Ga. They got out with their lives against M$U the last two years, and I think they could easily drop that one this year, especially since it is in Starkville. Clemson I am not sure about, since their RB flunked out. They could win against Arkansas, provided they can find some offense. I'd say anywhere from 6-6 to 8-4.

 

[BamaFan615]

I'd agree with the idea that this Auburn team has the ability to go 8-4 and maybe even 9-5 if things fall their way, but I also could see them going 6-6. A lot of their success depends upon the QB play...like was mentioned before, they don't have the biggest of RB's and if they're not getting good play out of Frazier they're going to very predictable - think Florida of last year.

I do think their defense will be improved. They've had 3 straight good recruiting classes, but now it's time to see what type of development Chizik has done with the talent he has brought in.

There is still plenty that could/will happen between now and the end of the season, but if all else stays equal I think they have a pretty good team. I look at their schedule and come out with a 7-5 record, but I think they'll pull an upset on either Clemson or Arky so I'll go with a 8-4 record in 2012 for Auburn.

 

[UAgrad93]

7-5 or 8-4 is about as good as I see it for the Barn. The qb position is a question mark followed with exclamation points! Van Gorder has his work cut out for him even thoough he returns the entire front 7 I believe. Last year, they were an absolutely pitiful team when it came to tackling. If he has gotten them out of the habits that they have played with since jr high, they could be very solid defensively. The secondary lost alot and frankly, they weren't very good at defending the pass anyways! This team could be anywhere from 5-7 to 8-4.

 

[LBS]

7-5
I see losses to Bama, LSU, UGA, and Clemson, plus one other that they should have won.
Coaching makes a difference, and there is too much coaching change to not jump up an bite them somewhere, IMO.

A new coach may be able to win a title in three years, but dropping one you should have won in year one is more likely to be the case. Coach Stallings started O-3. Coach Saban dropped Louisiana-Monroe at Bama and UAB at LSU.

 

[TerryP]

While I see Clemson as a toss-up, several see that as the first loss for Auburn. Yes, they Clemson pulled that one out last season; that's not lost on me. I still don't have as much faith as some in CU.

Do you think their offense will, once again, put up close to 650 yards on Auburn's defense?
Do you think that Tahj Boyd can hit that 65% completion mark he did a year ago? He accounted for almost 400 yards of their offense along with all but 10 of their 38 points.

I simply can't say one way or another. Boyd is back. Andre Ellington is a senior this year and he'll be their featured back. Alongside Sammy Watkins, their other two receivers are upper classmen.

All of that makes one think, "sure, they should be able to move the ball well."

Yet, I still can't get over this point.

Bama allowed 106 points last season. Clemson gave up more than that their last three games.

 

[planomateo]

IIRC, Clemson's OL took a hit this year - replacing both tackles and a guard. Whats the latest on Sammy Watkins, there was talk a few weeks ago he could be out against Auburn.

I have a hard time seeing Auburn losing to them again this year...besides, Clemson doesn't have a chick-fil-a on campus

 

[TerryP]

IIRC, Clemson's OL took a hit this year - replacing both tackles and a guard. Whats the latest on Sammy Watkins, there was talk a few weeks ago he could be out against Auburn.

I have a hard time seeing Auburn losing to them again this year...besides, Clemson doesn't have a chick-fil-a on campus

It's been a few weeks since I've even talked with any of the beat writers about Clemson. Now, IIRC, the right side of the line is the most inexperienced. They did graduate both tackles but slid their LG over to LT in the spring. Game proven center.

As to Watkins, no word yet from Swinney. It was Sammy's first discipline "run-in" so it's impossible to say if that is going to warrant a suspension or it's handled in-house in the off-season.

There is NO shortage of play-makers on offense.

You've pretty well summed up why I think this one is too close to call. Auburn returning their front seven against a young offensive line that wasn't very good last season.