🏈 Looking at the fall: Schedule analysis - Florida

[TerryP]

We'll break down the Florida Gators' schedule today:

Nonconference opponents (with 2011 records)

Sept. 1: Bowling Green (5-7)
Nov. 10: Louisiana-Lafayette (9-4)
Nov. 17: Jacksonville State (7-4)
Nov. 24: Florida State (9-4)

SEC home games

Sept. 22: Kentucky
Oct. 6: LSU
Oct. 20: South Carolina
Nov. 3: Missouri

SEC road games

Sept. 8: at Texas A&M
Sept. 15: at Tennessee
Oct. 13: at Vanderbilt
Oct. 27: vs. Georgia, in Jacksonville, Fla.

Gut-check time: LSU embarrassed Florida last season in Baton Rouge and has won the last two games in this series. Will Muschamp could use a breakthrough win in his second season, and taking down the Tigers in the Swamp would certainly qualify. Depending on how the Gators start the season, it could be a huge game. It's not a complete stretch to think that Florida could be 4-0 when LSU visits on Oct. 6. What's more, the Gators have a bye week leading into the game. History suggests that the winner of this game is destined for a big season. Each of the past seven years, the winning team has gone on to win at least 11 games and has played in the BCS National Championship Game four times.

Trap game: The SEC opener against Texas A&M in College Station has danger written all over it. The Aggies will be sky-high about playing their first SEC game, and you know Kyle Field will be rocking. If the Gators aren't on top of their game in Week 2, they won't get out alive.

Snoozer: It's a long-standing tradition at Florida to play some real yawners to start the season. They open on Sept. 1 with Bowling Green at home.

Telltale stretch: The back-to-back road games at Texas A&M and Tennessee in September will be huge tests for the Gators. But where they'll play their way in or play their way out of the Eastern Division race will be the three-game stretch starting with South Carolina on Oct. 20 at home. The annual clash with Georgia in Jacksonville comes a week later, and then it's back to the Swamp on Nov. 3 against Missouri. All three games are against East opponents, and even if Florida doesn't get it done against LSU, the Gators could make up for it by sweeping the Gamecocks, Bulldogs and Tigers.

Final analysis: Similar to past years, Florida plays all eight of its SEC games in succession. There are no breaks in September or October against weaker nonconference teams, although the bye is positioned nicely the week before LSU's visit to the Swamp. The most difficult thing about Florida's nonconference schedule is that annual finale against Florida State, and this year it's on the road. That's tough duty, to grind through the SEC slate and then have a team that's going to open the season ranked in the top 10 nationally waiting for you on the final weekend of the regular season. Then again, the Gators haven't left the state of Florida to play a nonconference game since 1991, and that was a 38-21 loss to Syracuse. We'll find out a lot about these Gators in those first three weeks. They have to make it through the Texas A&M and Tennessee trips unscathed. If they do, don't be surprised if they're right in the middle of the East race once the second half of the season rolls around.

 

[TerryP]

UF's schedule? The antithesis of Georgia's. That's going to come into play. The Gators have all eight SEC games in a row but do get their bye-week right before they face their toughest game of the season; LSU.

Here's what jumps out at me and has since last season concluded.

Florida was ranked 105th in total offense last season. Florida! The play of their offensive line last year wasn't abysmal, but it certainly wasn't something you'd find any knowledgeable Gator fan pointing to as sufficient, and I doubt you'll find many that look at the fall and say it's promising. There's a good chance Muschamp and Pease will be looking at two true frosh staring on the line.

Their defense is going to be the key to any success. Depending on who you ask, you'll find the general opinion is Florida returns practically their entire starting group from last season. Here's the question. Is the defense going to be good enough to keep them on the winning track long enough for their offense to find its identity?

I'm seeing an improved Gator team, but still one that ends their regular season with four losses. I don't feel comfortable thinking Georgia will somehow turn around their track record in the annual "Cocktail Party." I don't feel comfortable—despite everyone saying UT isn't that good—calling the Gators trip to Neyland a win.

A&M I consider a toss up mainly because the game is being played at Kyle Field. Considering it is the first conference game A&M will face in their SEC debut and it's a given the Aggies fan base will be rocking this game it's simply not a given that UF can over-power the Aggies with their young offense.

South Carolina will be a chore, but they do catch the 'Cocks at home in late October.

SEC 5-3, overall 8-4.

Your thoughts?

 

[bamaraider]

I see their defense being improved but not as physical as they used to be.

Game vs Texas A&M, ...The 12th Man at Texas A&M is one of the most amazing venues in college football and has THE BEST student section in all of College Football, and to add with that they're going to play their first SEC at home. The whole place is going to be rocking but I think Florida finds away to beat them. Texas A&M just lost too much talent and I'm not sure about a Houston coach transitioning to an Elite league just yet...but crazier things have happened (Chizik)

Usually they start undefeated until they play either us or LSU, but this year I think the Viles actually have a good team brewing up in Knoxville and their fan base is going to be ready for Florida to bring in an QB who hasn't seen 100,000 fans screaming. That game vs the Vols, I think, will determine whether or not that have a successful year.

Florida very likely could be at 5-7 or 4-8 determining their offense. Unproven QB, unproven RB, unproven WR, and I'm not sure how their O-line is against a major D-Line.

SEC 3-5, overall 6-6. Disappointing year in year Number 2

 

[psychojoe]

I have a lot of questions about the Gators, especially on offense. Two highly touted but as yet unproven QB, runnung game is very suspect. Some doubts about their receivers.

I expect their O to improve as the season goes along, but I see lots of trouble in the two early conference roadgames. Best case 8-4, 5-3 in the SEC. Worst case? 2-3 after LSU, lose to Ga., lose to FSU, lose to Mo., lose to USCe. 2-6 in SEC play, 5-7 overall. If that happens their will be some calling for Muschamp's head.