There has been a great deal of discussion about the soon to be announced Committee to select the four participants in the new College Football Playoff beginning in 2014. Fans have debated the composition of the committee, and many have doubts that the process will be logical and fair. This begs the question of what exactly the Committee will do. That remains to be seen, but we might be able to get an idea by looking at what might have happened the past ten years if the playoff had been in place.
Below is a year-by-year analysis of who the candidates for the playoff were, along with guesses as to who would be chosen. Rankings used are the BCS rankings from that season after the regular season and conference championship games. It is also important to note that what happened in bowl games for each season are not factored in because those outcomes would not have been known to the committee members.
2003
The No Doubters
There were no undefeated teams, and only three one-loss teams (Miami OH, Boise State, and TCU also had one loss but were not ranked in the Top Ten of the final BCS Standings):
• #1 Oklahoma – Lost to #10 Kansas State 35-7 in the Big XII Championship Game. In spite of this blowout, they still were #1 in the final BCS poll and would still have been a shoo in for the playoff.
• #2 LSU – Lost to #15 Florida. Won the SEC Championship Game.
• #3 USC – Lost to unranked California. Won the Pac Ten.
The Contenders
There were 6 2-loss teams who might have had an argument for the fourth playoff spot:
• #4 Michigan – Lost to Oregon and #13 Iowa. Won the Big Ten Championship
• #5 Ohio State – Lost to Wisconsin and #4 Michigan.
• #6 Texas – Lost to #1 Oklahoma 65-13 and to Arkansas.
• #7 Florida State – Lost to #9 Miami and Clemson. Won the ACC Championship
• #8 Tennessee – Lost to auburn and #12 Georgia.
• #9 Miami – Lost to Virginia Tech and #8 Tennessee
Likely Outcome
The almost certain outcome here is that Michigan would have been the fourth playoff team. Essentially it boiled down to Ohio State-Michigan being a play-in game for the spot. The OU loss really hurts the Texas case. FSU lost head to head to Miami, and Miami lost head to head to Tennessee. Tennessee’s resume in a relatively weak year for the SEC is not stellar, and their strength of schedule is the worst of the 2-loss contenders.
Committee Impact – Low.
2004
The No Doubters
• #1 USC – One of the all-time great teams. Pac Ten Champions.
• #2 Oklahoma – Big XII Champs.
• #3 auburn – SEC Champions.
The Contenders
There are really only three potential candidates for the fourth spot:
• #4 Texas – their only loss was to #2 Oklahoma 12-0.
• #5 California – their only loss was to #1 USC 23-17.
• #6 Utah – undefeated champions of the Mountain West Conference. They did not play a ranked team all season, and only played two teams from BCS conferences: 3-8 Arizona and 6-6 North Carolina (lost to Boston College in a bowl game).
• #9 Boise State was unbeaten and won the WAC, but played a weaker schedule than Utah.
• #10 Louisville had one loss to #14 Miami, but otherwise their schedule was abysmal.
Likely Outcome
The committee would almost certainly have chosen between Texas and Cal. These two teams were very close in BCS average, with Texas ahead .8476 to.8347. Utah likely would have been a distant third because of their poor schedule.
Committee Impact – Huge
2005
The No Doubters
• #1 USC – A loaded team that won the Pac Ten again with an undefeated regular season.
• #2 Texas – Led by Vince Young to a 12-0 mark and a Big XII Championship.
The Contenders
There really are only three teams with any sort of argument:
• #3 Penn State – Big Ten Co-Champions at 10-1, with the loss coming at #10 Michigan.
• #4 Ohio State – Big Ten Co-Champs at 9-2, with a 25-22 loss to #2 Texas and a 17-10 loss at Penn State.
• #5 Oregon – 10-1 with a 45-13 drubbing from USC.
Likely Outcome
No other teams had fewer than two losses. Penn State would almost certainly have gotten one of the four spots based on their record and their win over Ohio State. Even though Ohio State had two losses, they still likely would have been chosen over Oregon. The Buckeyes played #2 and #3 very, very close, while the Ducks were drilled at home by #1 USC. Also, Oregon’s schedule was weak, with USC being the only opponent ranked at the end of the year.
Committee Impact – Moderate
2006
The No Doubters
• #1 Ohio State – Undefeated regular season and Big Ten Champions.
• #2 Florida – SEC Champs with a loss to #9 auburn.
• #3 Michigan – Only loss was to #1 Ohio State 42-39 in Columbus.
The Contenders
This is pretty muddled with no clear favorite:
• #4 LSU – 10-2 with losses to #9 auburn and #2 Florida.
• #5 USC – 10-2 with losses to #22 Oregon State and #25 UCLA. Shared the Pac Ten Championship with #18 Cal, a team they beat 23-9.
• #6 Louisville – 11-1 and Big East Champs, with the loss coming to #16 Rutgers. Their schedule was less than impressive.
• #7 Wisconsin – 11-1 with a loss to #3 Michigan, the only ranked team they played. They did not play Ohio State.
• #8 Boise State – Another undefeated season and WAC title, but a woefully weak schedule.
• #9 auburn – 10-2 with losses to unranked Georgia and #12 Arkansas, but the aforementioned upset wins against LSU and Florida.
• #10 Notre Dame – 10-2 with losses to #3 Michigan and #5 USC.
Likely Outcome
There really is not a great way to tell who would have been chosen here. Each of the contenders has an ugly mark or two. USC would have to have been perhaps the most likely choice based on their success in the few years prior to this one.
Committee Impact – Huge
2007
The No Doubters
Only one sure thing:
• #1 Ohio State – Their only loss was the surprising Illinois game where they got Zooked.
The Contenders
• #2 LSU – In spite of their two losses – 3OT thrillers against unranked teams Kentucky and Arkansas – they might be considered a No Doubter.
• #3 Virginia Tech – 11-2 and ACC Champs. They lost to #9 Boston College 14-10 in the regular season, but avenged the loss with a 30-16 win over BC in the ACC Championship. They were drilled 48-7 by #2 LSU early in the season.
• #4 Oklahoma – beat #6 Missouri in the regular season and again in the Big XII Championship game. Their losses were to unranked Texas Tech and Colorado.
• #5 Georgia – 10-2 with losses to South Carolina and #16 Tennessee.
• #6 Missouri – the losses to Oklahoma pretty much kill their chances of making the playoff.
• #7 USC – another Co-Championship in the Pac Ten, but losses to unranked Stanford and Oregon.
• #8 Kansas – lost only to Missouri, the only team they played who ranked in the final BCS standings.
Likely Outcome
This one likely would come down to a race between Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, and Georgia for two spots. The nod would likely have gone to the two conference champions, Tech and Oklahoma.
Committee Impact – High
2008
The No Doubters
• #1 Oklahoma – Their only loss was to #3 Texas in the Red River Rivalry. They played six teams that were ranked in the final BCS poll; no one else played more than four. In the five wins against those ranked teams, they won each of them by at least 20 points, including a 41 point win over #21 Missouri in the Big XII Championship Game.
• #2 Florida – Their only blemish was loss to Houston Nutt and Ole Miss. Their only other win over a team ranked in the final BCS poll was against then #1 Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. However, their only win other than the win over Bama over a team in the final BCS rankings was a 49-10 drubbing of #15 Georgia. Even in a relatively down year in the SEC, they are still virtually assured a spot.
• #3 Texas – They beat #1 Oklahoma but lost to #7 Texas Tech, creating a weird three-way tie in the Big XII South with each of the three teams having a loss to one of the other two. Texas was also the only team other than Oklahoma to play more than three BCS ranked teams. Their win over an otherwise dominant Oklahoma team and 11-1 record would almost certainly have been enough to get them in the playoff.
The Contenders
• #4 Alabama – An undefeated regular season was followed up with the SECCG loss to #2 Florida in a hard fought contest. Like Florida, Alabama whipped #15 Georgia. Alabama was able to win a close one against #25 Ole Miss in their only other game against a ranked team.
• #5 USC – Another PAC 10 crown for USC and an 11-1 regular season record. They were dominant almost all year, with a 35-3 trouncing of Co-Big Ten Champs Ohio State. They beat #17 ranked and Pac 10 runner-up Oregon 44-10. The only blemish was to a solid Oregon State team who finished 3rd in the conference. They beat Arizona by 7, Cal by 14, and everyone else on the schedule by at least 3 touchdowns.
• #6 Utah – The Utes were undefeated in the regular season. The only BCS ranked teams on their schedule were #11 TCU and #16 BYU. Otherwise, the schedule was very weak, and it is very doubtful they would have gotten a spot.
• #7 Texas Tech – Yes, they did beat #3 Texas, but they also were destroyed 65-21 by #1 Oklahoma. They drilled #13 Oklahoma State 56-20 in their only other game against a ranked team. A relatively weak schedule and the poor showing against OU almost certainly left the Red Raiders with no chance to get in the playoff.
• #8 Penn State – Co-Champs of the Big Ten along with #10 Ohio State, whom they beat 13-6. The Big Ten was noticeably weak this season. The Lions beat #18 Michigan State 49-18, but lost to Iowa by one. They did beat Oregon State, but the rest of the schedule is unspectacular, as evidenced by their #9 computer ranking.
• #9 Boise State – An undefeated record and a win over #17 Oregon in their only game vs. a ranked team is all the Broncos have on their resume. They had virtually zero chance to jump the five teams ahead of them to get in the final four.
Likely Outcome
Even though several could have tried to stake a claim, this is basically a two-team race between Alabama and USC. The Tide was in 4th in the Harris Poll, one spot ahead of the Trojans. They were tied for 4th in the USA Today Coaches’ Poll with the exact same number of points. The computers had Alabama 6th and USC 7th, with Alabama ranked ahead by five of the six computers. In 2008, USC was still considered a dominant program fresh off a great deal of success.
Alabama was an up and coming team in the SEC, but the SEC dominance of today was still in its infancy. Would the undefeated regular season and the strong showing against Florida and Tim Tebow in the SECCG have been enough to tip the scales? Or would the committee have gone with the dominant team of the decade to that point?
Committee Impact – Huge
2009
The No Doubters
There were five undefeated teams, but only the top two were locks for the playoff.
• #1 Alabama – An undefeated regular season was followed up with a dominant win over Florida and Tim Tebow in the SEC Championship Game. The Tide were a nearly unanimous #1 in both polls, and the clear number one in all the computer rankings.
• #2 Texas – Texas was 13-0, champs of the Big XII, and a playoff lock.
The Contenders
• #3 Cincinnati – They had to come from 21 points down and score with less than a minute to go at #17 Pittsburgh to complete a perfect regular season. They also had a home win vs. #16 West Virginia and a road win at #18 Oregon State in their only other games against ranked teams. The Bearcats consensus computer ranking was 2nd, and they were actually ahead of Texas in four of the six computers.
• #4 TCU – An undefeated season was highlighted by big wins against their only two ranked opponents, #14 BYU and #23 Utah. Beyond that, their schedule is less than impressive. While the computers had them three spots behind Cincinnati at 5th, the human polls both had them #3 ahead of Cincinnati.
• #5 Florida – The Gators were dominant and held the #1 ranking every week but one up until their loss in the SECCG to #1 Alabama. Even though that game was not very close, the computers still were favorable. Their average computer rank was 4th, and they were actually 2nd behind Alabama in two of them. The potential for a Bama-Florida rematch in the playoffs might have been too good for the committee to pass up.
• #6 Boise State – The Broncos once again finished the regular season unbeaten, albeit against another less than stellar schedule. Their opening week win over #7 Oregon was their only game against a ranked team or a BCS conference opponent.
Likely Outcome
This is a tough one, with Cincinnati (.8878), TCU (.8836), and Florida (.8637) extremely close in the BCS standings. It is very possible the committee would have chosen between the Bearcats and the Horned Frogs for one of the spots, and Tebow’s Florida would have gotten the fourth playoff spot.
Committee Impact – Huge
2010
The No Doubters
• #1 auburn – Undefeated SEC Champs.
• #2 Oregon – Undefeated PAC 10 Champs.
The Contenders
• #3 TCU – The Horned Frogs had another unbeaten regular season, but once again the schedule was weak. Their only game against a ranked team was #19 Utah.
• #4 Stanford – A three touchdown loss to #2 Oregon was the Cardinal’s only blemish. Their schedule and their conference were not tough by any stretch, with every team but Oregon and Stanford at 5-4 or worse in conference play.
• #5 Wisconsin – Co-Champs of the weak Big Ten in a year that saw only three teams – Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State – above .500 in conference play. Their only loss was at #9 Michigan State.
• #6 Ohio State – Lost only at Wisconsin, their only game against a team in the final BCS rankings.
• #7 Oklahoma – They are listed here as a courtesy only. With two losses, they had no chance to make the playoff four. For some reason, though, the computers did love the Sooners; they ranked an average of 4th in them, and were ahead of Wisconsin and Ohio State in five of them.
• #8 Arkansas – Another two loss team listed as a courtesy. They also were loved by the computers, ranking ahead of Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Stanford in three of them.
• #9 Michigan State – They beat #5 Wisconsin and were Co-Champs of the Big Ten. However, their one loss was a 37-6 drubbing at the hands of a mediocre 7-5 Iowa team. Had that game been closer, they might have received at least some consideration.
Likely Outcome
The weakness of the Big Ten and the lack of any other viable alternatives with one loss mean the committee would almost certainly have chosen TCU and Stanford.
Committee Impact – Low.
2011
The No Doubters
• #1 LSU – The undefeated SEC Champions and unanimous #1 in all the polls and computer rankings.
• #2 Alabama – Lost only to LSU by 3 points in overtime.
• #3 Oklahoma State – Big XII Champs with a bad loss at Iowa State being the difference between them and #2 Alabama.
The Contenders
• #4 Stanford – Lost to #5 Oregon and did not play in the PAC 12 Championship Game.
• #5 Oregon – Lost to LSU the first week of the season and to USC, who finished 10-2 but was ineligible for the BCS rankings due to probation.
• #6 Arkansas -- Yes, their only losses were to #1 LSU and #2 Alabama, but both games were 24-point blowouts. They had zero chance to get into the playoff.
• #7 Boise State – Only one loss (to #18 TCU), and an impressive win over #16 Georgia. They had even less chance than Arkansas to get in.
Likely Outcome
This scenario would have put some selection committee theories to the test as they chose between Stanford and Oregon. Would they rubber-stamp Stanford because of one fewer loss and higher placement in both the human and computer rankings? Or would they have given Oregon credit for winning the conference, beating Stanford head-to-head, and playing a tougher non-conference schedule?
Committee Impact – Huge.
2012
The No Doubters
• #1 Notre Dame – The only undefeated team in the country.
• #2 Alabama – The SEC Champions and defending national champions. A lock for the playoff in spite of a loss to Texas A&M.
The Contenders
• #3 Florida – Florida had only the one loss to SEC East winner Georgia, so they did not play in the conference championship game.
• #4 Oregon – The situation in 2012 between Oregon and Stanford is reversed. Oregon lost head-to-head, did not win the conference, but had only the one loss (to Stanford).
• #5 Kansas State – Big XII Champions with their only loss coming at the hands of unranked Baylor. The computers love the Wildcats and have them tied with Stanford at an average of 4th place.
• #6 Stanford – As mentioned above, they won the Pac 12. They beat #4 Oregon but lost to #1 Notre Dame and to unranked Washington.
• #7 Georgia – Lost to #10 South Carolina and to #2 Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.
Likely Outcome
The outcome here would likely depend on whatever precedent the committee established when they chose between Stanford and Oregon in 2011. They would again have a tough choice between those two schools, in reversed roles from the year before. It seems likely one of the two would have gotten one of the two remaining spots.
For another of the spots, Kansas State seems to have a strong case, but the Baylor loss hurts. The Big XII was down in 2012, and Baylor only finished 4-5 in conference play.
Would the committee have passed up Kansas State (or perhaps the PAC 12 duo) in favor of either Georgia or Florida? Florida is 2nd in five of the six computer polls, but they lost head to head to Georgia. Georgia has two losses to Florida’s one, but they played one more game, and their second loss was a nail biter to the #2 team Alabama.
Of this ten year period, this one might be the most difficult to sort out, with five teams having a legitimate argument for the final two playoff spots. If there are many years of this, how long before the playoff expands to eight teams?
Committee impact— Huge.
