Max
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Flash back to this time last year. Think of all the things we didn't know about the quarterback position alone. What was Clemson's plan regarding Kelly Bryant and Trevor Lawrence? Georgia's plan with Jake Fromm and Justin Fields? Notre Dame's with Brandon Wimbush and Ian Book? Was Tua Tagovailoa truly ready to be a star at Alabama? How much might Oklahoma's offense regress with Kyler Murray replacing Baker Mayfield? The quarterback situation among contenders is a lot more stable this time around, but every team in the country still has questions to answer.
Granted, the magnitude or likelihood of some questions can change, but the pure number of questions we have about a team says a lot. If you simply count the "ifs" (if this happens, if that happens) it takes to turn a team into a true national title contender, that drops some major hints about the teams most likely to make deep runs.
Below are the 17 teams with title odds better than +10000 per Caesars Sportsbook, sorted by the number of "ifs" it takes to make each a true title contender.
A quick note: We're not going to waste time with things like "If their quarterback stays healthy" or "If the injury bug doesn't devastate a certain unit before a key game." Those things are obvious and apply to every team in the country. For the most part, we're not going to focus on schedules either. We're focused only on the quality of the team at hand.
LSU (+3000)
If ... Joe Burrow's late-season growth was real. In his first nine games as LSU's starting quarterback, Burrow, an Ohio State transfer, completed just 53 percent of his passes, had a 114.3 passer rating and took few chances. Not good enough.
Over the final four games of the season, however, Burrow blossomed. Completion rate: 67 percent. Passer rating: 173.5. Sure, two of those games were against QB-friendly Arkansas and Rice defenses, but two were against Texas A&M and UCF, too. Plus, even against Southeastern Louisiana and Louisiana Tech earlier in the year, he hadn't posted numbers like these. He returns this fall, as do his top five targets.
If this was a real breakthrough, and not just a product of limited defenses, then this could be the most exciting LSU offense since Zach Mettenberger was throwing to OBJ and Jarvis Landry.
If ... the LSU run game becomes the LSU run game again. Like Burrow's former team, Ohio State, LSU was strangely mediocre at one of the things it's best known for: running the ball. The Bayou Bengals were just 92nd in rushing marginal efficiency and 91st in stuff rate, frequently putting Burrow in awkward downs and distances. Leading rusher Nick Brossette is gone, but backup Clyde Edwards-Helaire was more efficient, and those responsible for all but nine of last year's offensive line starts return.
If ... Kristian Fulton and Kary Vincent Jr. can get greedy. Dave Aranda's defense returns four of its five primary linemen, seven of eight linebackers, and five of its top seven DBs. The Tigers do have to replace two top-50 draft picks, however, and while linebacker Devin White's production can probably be mostly accounted for by simply keeping sophomores Micah Baskerville and K'Lavon Chaisson healthy, considering how dominant LSU's pass defense was, losing corner Greedy Williams hurts.
Granted, Vincent and Fulton, a junior and senior respectively, are former blue-chippers and have been in plenty of battles. But the bar is high here.
www.espn.com
Granted, the magnitude or likelihood of some questions can change, but the pure number of questions we have about a team says a lot. If you simply count the "ifs" (if this happens, if that happens) it takes to turn a team into a true national title contender, that drops some major hints about the teams most likely to make deep runs.
Below are the 17 teams with title odds better than +10000 per Caesars Sportsbook, sorted by the number of "ifs" it takes to make each a true title contender.
A quick note: We're not going to waste time with things like "If their quarterback stays healthy" or "If the injury bug doesn't devastate a certain unit before a key game." Those things are obvious and apply to every team in the country. For the most part, we're not going to focus on schedules either. We're focused only on the quality of the team at hand.
LSU (+3000)
![i](/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fa.espncdn.com%2Fcombiner%2Fi%3Fimg%3D%2Fi%2Fteamlogos%2Fncaa%2F500%2F99.png%3Fw%3D110%26h%3D110%26transparent%3Dtrue&hash=6d4f1b98439c084db96d880dc7608778)
If ... Joe Burrow's late-season growth was real. In his first nine games as LSU's starting quarterback, Burrow, an Ohio State transfer, completed just 53 percent of his passes, had a 114.3 passer rating and took few chances. Not good enough.
Over the final four games of the season, however, Burrow blossomed. Completion rate: 67 percent. Passer rating: 173.5. Sure, two of those games were against QB-friendly Arkansas and Rice defenses, but two were against Texas A&M and UCF, too. Plus, even against Southeastern Louisiana and Louisiana Tech earlier in the year, he hadn't posted numbers like these. He returns this fall, as do his top five targets.
If this was a real breakthrough, and not just a product of limited defenses, then this could be the most exciting LSU offense since Zach Mettenberger was throwing to OBJ and Jarvis Landry.
If ... the LSU run game becomes the LSU run game again. Like Burrow's former team, Ohio State, LSU was strangely mediocre at one of the things it's best known for: running the ball. The Bayou Bengals were just 92nd in rushing marginal efficiency and 91st in stuff rate, frequently putting Burrow in awkward downs and distances. Leading rusher Nick Brossette is gone, but backup Clyde Edwards-Helaire was more efficient, and those responsible for all but nine of last year's offensive line starts return.
If ... Kristian Fulton and Kary Vincent Jr. can get greedy. Dave Aranda's defense returns four of its five primary linemen, seven of eight linebackers, and five of its top seven DBs. The Tigers do have to replace two top-50 draft picks, however, and while linebacker Devin White's production can probably be mostly accounted for by simply keeping sophomores Micah Baskerville and K'Lavon Chaisson healthy, considering how dominant LSU's pass defense was, losing corner Greedy Williams hurts.
Granted, Vincent and Fulton, a junior and senior respectively, are former blue-chippers and have been in plenty of battles. But the bar is high here.
![www.espn.com](/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fa4.espncdn.com%2Fcombiner%2Fi%3Fimg%3D%252Fphoto%252F2019%252F0627%252Fr529509_2_1296x729_16%252D9.jpg&hash=8bdf6c5b1faaae667da593bbe5d2bc34&return_error=1)
How each top CFB contender can win the national title
How many questions does your team have to answer in 2019? That will go a long way to determining if it's a legit contender or not.