Max
Member
Flash back to this time last year. Think of all the things we didn't know about the quarterback position alone. What was Clemson's plan regarding Kelly Bryant and Trevor Lawrence? Georgia's plan with Jake Fromm and Justin Fields? Notre Dame's with Brandon Wimbush and Ian Book? Was Tua Tagovailoa truly ready to be a star at Alabama? How much might Oklahoma's offense regress with Kyler Murray replacing Baker Mayfield? The quarterback situation among contenders is a lot more stable this time around, but every team in the country still has questions to answer.
Granted, the magnitude or likelihood of some questions can change, but the pure number of questions we have about a team says a lot. If you simply count the "ifs" (if this happens, if that happens) it takes to turn a team into a true national title contender, that drops some major hints about the teams most likely to make deep runs.
Below are the 17 teams with title odds better than +10000 per Caesars Sportsbook, sorted by the number of "ifs" it takes to make each a true title contender.
A quick note: We're not going to waste time with things like "If their quarterback stays healthy" or "If the injury bug doesn't devastate a certain unit before a key game." Those things are obvious and apply to every team in the country. For the most part, we're not going to focus on schedules either. We're focused only on the quality of the team at hand.
Jump to a team:
Alabama | Clemson | Georgia | Ohio State | Oklahoma | LSU | Michigan | Texas | Oregon | Florida | Washington | Notre Dame | Texas A&M | Auburn | Wisconsin | Miami | Nebraska
Two ifs
Alabama (+240 national title odds)
If ... the secondary cuts down on the glitches. Before 2018, Alabama's defense had graded out worse than its offense, per S&P+, just one time under Nick Saban (2010). That year, the Crimson Tide suffered a few too many big plays, allowing 16 passes of 30-plus yards, 57th in FBS. They were ultra-young in the secondary, led in part by a freshman (Dee Milliner) and a couple of sophomores (Dre Kirkpatrick and Robert Lester).
In 2011, with better experience, they allowed just seven passes of 30-plus yards and improved to first in defensive S&P+. It wouldn't be particularly surprising if something similar happened now that strong safety Xavier McKinney is no longer a sophomore and corner Patrick Surtain II is no longer a freshman. Still, it needs to happen because, as we saw in last season's national title game, Clemson's receiving corps had a massive advantage against Alabama's secondary and exploited it ruthlessly.
If ... Steve Sarkisian can make a difference in the red zone. Bama's latest offensive coordinator, Sarkisian, comes from Atlanta, where his Falcons struggled mightily in the red zone in 2017 and did just fine in 2018. Maybe he can find a couple of extra-magical playcalls to help out a Tide offense that was ultra-efficient over most of the field (first in overall offensive success rate) but labored near the goal line (68th in success rate inside the opponent's 10). That, too, was awfully costly in the national title game.
* - S&P+ is the tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency measure I created at Football Outsiders in 2008. Alabama has finished either first or second overall in this predictive measure every year since 2009.
** - Success rate is like an on-base percentage for football. For my version of success rate, every play is deemed a success or non-success by the following definition: gaining 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, or 100 percent on third or fourth down.
Granted, the magnitude or likelihood of some questions can change, but the pure number of questions we have about a team says a lot. If you simply count the "ifs" (if this happens, if that happens) it takes to turn a team into a true national title contender, that drops some major hints about the teams most likely to make deep runs.
Below are the 17 teams with title odds better than +10000 per Caesars Sportsbook, sorted by the number of "ifs" it takes to make each a true title contender.
A quick note: We're not going to waste time with things like "If their quarterback stays healthy" or "If the injury bug doesn't devastate a certain unit before a key game." Those things are obvious and apply to every team in the country. For the most part, we're not going to focus on schedules either. We're focused only on the quality of the team at hand.
Jump to a team:
Alabama | Clemson | Georgia | Ohio State | Oklahoma | LSU | Michigan | Texas | Oregon | Florida | Washington | Notre Dame | Texas A&M | Auburn | Wisconsin | Miami | Nebraska
Two ifs
Alabama (+240 national title odds)
If ... the secondary cuts down on the glitches. Before 2018, Alabama's defense had graded out worse than its offense, per S&P+, just one time under Nick Saban (2010). That year, the Crimson Tide suffered a few too many big plays, allowing 16 passes of 30-plus yards, 57th in FBS. They were ultra-young in the secondary, led in part by a freshman (Dee Milliner) and a couple of sophomores (Dre Kirkpatrick and Robert Lester).
In 2011, with better experience, they allowed just seven passes of 30-plus yards and improved to first in defensive S&P+. It wouldn't be particularly surprising if something similar happened now that strong safety Xavier McKinney is no longer a sophomore and corner Patrick Surtain II is no longer a freshman. Still, it needs to happen because, as we saw in last season's national title game, Clemson's receiving corps had a massive advantage against Alabama's secondary and exploited it ruthlessly.
If ... Steve Sarkisian can make a difference in the red zone. Bama's latest offensive coordinator, Sarkisian, comes from Atlanta, where his Falcons struggled mightily in the red zone in 2017 and did just fine in 2018. Maybe he can find a couple of extra-magical playcalls to help out a Tide offense that was ultra-efficient over most of the field (first in overall offensive success rate) but labored near the goal line (68th in success rate inside the opponent's 10). That, too, was awfully costly in the national title game.
* - S&P+ is the tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency measure I created at Football Outsiders in 2008. Alabama has finished either first or second overall in this predictive measure every year since 2009.
** - Success rate is like an on-base percentage for football. For my version of success rate, every play is deemed a success or non-success by the following definition: gaining 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, or 100 percent on third or fourth down.
