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Arkansas Razorbacks
Projected record: 2.1-7.9
What the FPI says: Arkansas hasn't beaten a league opponent since the 2017 season, but the FPI points to that potentially changing this season. Toss-up games for the Razorbacks include Ole Miss and Mississippi State and matchups vs. Tennessee and Missouri are currently sitting at 38.3 and 38.9 percent win probabilities.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Projected record: 1.3-8.7
What the FPI says: Could the SEC feature a winless team this fall? The FPI points to the Commodores sitting on a possible goose egg in the win column unless they can beat South Carolina, Mississippi State or Ole Miss.
Mizzou Tigers
Projected record: 3.2-6.8
What the FPI says: The Tigers open vs. Alabama, then travel to Tennessee, so we'll know quickly how far Mizzou has come under a first-year head coach. ESPN's FPI points to Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Mississippi State as wins and Kentucky being one that could be the difference in getting to a possible bowl game or not.
Kentucky Wildcats
Projected record: 4.5-5.5
What the FPI says: Kentucky's revised schedule is cut and dry — the Wildcats are expected to beat the teams they play of equal or lesser talent and falter vs. the elites. That's according to ESPN, who projects losses to Auburn, Georgia, Alabama, Florida and Tennessee.
Ole Miss Rebels
Projected record: 3.9-6.1
What the FPI says: Could four wins get Ole Miss to bowl eligibility? Possibly. The Rebels during Lane Kiffin's first season are projected to beat Arkansas, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Mississippi State. The rest of the slate is arduous.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Projected record: 2.5-7.5
What the FPI says: Year 1 for Mike Leach in Starkville may get ugly. Mississippi State has less than a 20 percent chance to win in six different games and others — Ole Miss and Missouri — look grim. The Bulldogs have a 52.6 percent win projection vs. Arkansas and
SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS
Projected record: 3.7-6.3
What the FPI says: Three wins on the Gamecocks' schedule according to ESPN are Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Missouri. The rest? South Carolina is facing an uphill climb. Six out of 10 opponents are ranked inside the preseason AP Top 25, including Tennessee, who Will Muschamp's team hosts in the opener on Sept. 26. That's a pivotal see-saw game for both programs.
TEXAS A&M AGGIES
Projected record: 6.2-3.8
What the FPI says: Ranked inside the Top 15 to start the season by AP voters, the Aggies have a great shot at starting 8-0 if they can beat Alabama on the road in Week 2. That's the toughest game of the year for Texas A&M per ESPN's FPI. The rest of the slate is manageable up until the final two weeks of the regular season vs. LSU and at Auburn. Texas A&M has less than a 40 percent chance to beat either.
AUBURN TIGERS
Projected record: 7-3.1
What the FPI says: If Auburn wins a toss-up game vs. LSU on Halloween, the Tigers have a great shot at finishing 8-2 per ESPN's FPI. The other two worrisome matchups come at Georgia (winning just 33.6 percent of simulations) and at Alabama (21.1 percent). But the FPI numbers didn't look good for Auburn heading into last season's Iron Bowl, either.
FLORIDA GATORS
Projected record: 7.4-2.9
What the FPI says: Florida's 2020 season hinges on three games according to ESPN — Texas A&M, LSU and Georgia. Win two of those and the Gators are likely heading to the SEC Championship Game. The bad news? Florida isn't winning any, per the FPI. The Gators have a 47.6 percent chance to beat the Aggies, 45.6 percent chance to upend LSU and a 37.3 percent chance to end a losing skid to Georgia. Gulp.
TENNESSEE VOLS
Projected record: 4-6
What the FPI says: Turn your heads, Vols fans. ESPN's predictive algorithm isn't kind to Tennessee this season. The FPI points to six games in which Jeremy Pruitt's team won't likely win including three sure losses — at Georgia, vs. Alabama and at Auburn (no better than 12 percent win probability for any). The opener at South Carolina is even tough with Tennessee winning just 43 percent of simulations.
LSU TIGERS
Projected record: 7.9-2.4
What the FPI says: Ed Orgeron luckily has plenty of time to get his new quarterback in rhythm this fall with three straight games to open as heavy favorites. The FPI projects Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and Mizzou to be a breeze for the Tigers prior to a showdown at Florida. That one is the third-toughest game (54.4 percent win probability) behind Alabama (winning just 42.4 percent of simulations) and Auburn (50.3 percent).
GEORGIA BULLDOGS
Projected record: 8.2-2.5
What the FPI says: Two losses for the Bulldogs during the regular season? ESPN's FPI suggests that will be the case, with the first coming at Alabama and the second potentially happening in November against Florida. The Bulldogs battle three teams inside ESPN's FPI Top 15 this season in their quest in getting back to the league championship game and being in the Playoff conversation.
ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
Projected record: 9.0-1.6
What the FPI says: The Crimson Tide's toughest game this season according to ESPN's algorithm comes in mid-November at LSU. Alabama is winning 57.6 percent of projected simulations, with the next toughest coming earlier in the season at home vs. Georgia, who has won three straight Eastern Division crowns.
SEC Win Totals for every team.
Win totals for all the SEC teams. Over or under?
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Arkansas Razorbacks
Projected record: 2.1-7.9
What the FPI says: Arkansas hasn't beaten a league opponent since the 2017 season, but the FPI points to that potentially changing this season. Toss-up games for the Razorbacks include Ole Miss and Mississippi State and matchups vs. Tennessee and Missouri are currently sitting at 38.3 and 38.9 percent win probabilities.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Projected record: 1.3-8.7
What the FPI says: Could the SEC feature a winless team this fall? The FPI points to the Commodores sitting on a possible goose egg in the win column unless they can beat South Carolina, Mississippi State or Ole Miss.
Mizzou Tigers
Projected record: 3.2-6.8
What the FPI says: The Tigers open vs. Alabama, then travel to Tennessee, so we'll know quickly how far Mizzou has come under a first-year head coach. ESPN's FPI points to Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Mississippi State as wins and Kentucky being one that could be the difference in getting to a possible bowl game or not.
Kentucky Wildcats
Projected record: 4.5-5.5
What the FPI says: Kentucky's revised schedule is cut and dry — the Wildcats are expected to beat the teams they play of equal or lesser talent and falter vs. the elites. That's according to ESPN, who projects losses to Auburn, Georgia, Alabama, Florida and Tennessee.
Ole Miss Rebels
Projected record: 3.9-6.1
What the FPI says: Could four wins get Ole Miss to bowl eligibility? Possibly. The Rebels during Lane Kiffin's first season are projected to beat Arkansas, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Mississippi State. The rest of the slate is arduous.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Projected record: 2.5-7.5
What the FPI says: Year 1 for Mike Leach in Starkville may get ugly. Mississippi State has less than a 20 percent chance to win in six different games and others — Ole Miss and Missouri — look grim. The Bulldogs have a 52.6 percent win projection vs. Arkansas and
SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS
Projected record: 3.7-6.3
What the FPI says: Three wins on the Gamecocks' schedule according to ESPN are Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Missouri. The rest? South Carolina is facing an uphill climb. Six out of 10 opponents are ranked inside the preseason AP Top 25, including Tennessee, who Will Muschamp's team hosts in the opener on Sept. 26. That's a pivotal see-saw game for both programs.
TEXAS A&M AGGIES
Projected record: 6.2-3.8
What the FPI says: Ranked inside the Top 15 to start the season by AP voters, the Aggies have a great shot at starting 8-0 if they can beat Alabama on the road in Week 2. That's the toughest game of the year for Texas A&M per ESPN's FPI. The rest of the slate is manageable up until the final two weeks of the regular season vs. LSU and at Auburn. Texas A&M has less than a 40 percent chance to beat either.
AUBURN TIGERS
Projected record: 7-3.1
What the FPI says: If Auburn wins a toss-up game vs. LSU on Halloween, the Tigers have a great shot at finishing 8-2 per ESPN's FPI. The other two worrisome matchups come at Georgia (winning just 33.6 percent of simulations) and at Alabama (21.1 percent). But the FPI numbers didn't look good for Auburn heading into last season's Iron Bowl, either.
FLORIDA GATORS
Projected record: 7.4-2.9
What the FPI says: Florida's 2020 season hinges on three games according to ESPN — Texas A&M, LSU and Georgia. Win two of those and the Gators are likely heading to the SEC Championship Game. The bad news? Florida isn't winning any, per the FPI. The Gators have a 47.6 percent chance to beat the Aggies, 45.6 percent chance to upend LSU and a 37.3 percent chance to end a losing skid to Georgia. Gulp.
TENNESSEE VOLS
Projected record: 4-6
What the FPI says: Turn your heads, Vols fans. ESPN's predictive algorithm isn't kind to Tennessee this season. The FPI points to six games in which Jeremy Pruitt's team won't likely win including three sure losses — at Georgia, vs. Alabama and at Auburn (no better than 12 percent win probability for any). The opener at South Carolina is even tough with Tennessee winning just 43 percent of simulations.
LSU TIGERS
Projected record: 7.9-2.4
What the FPI says: Ed Orgeron luckily has plenty of time to get his new quarterback in rhythm this fall with three straight games to open as heavy favorites. The FPI projects Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and Mizzou to be a breeze for the Tigers prior to a showdown at Florida. That one is the third-toughest game (54.4 percent win probability) behind Alabama (winning just 42.4 percent of simulations) and Auburn (50.3 percent).
GEORGIA BULLDOGS
Projected record: 8.2-2.5
What the FPI says: Two losses for the Bulldogs during the regular season? ESPN's FPI suggests that will be the case, with the first coming at Alabama and the second potentially happening in November against Florida. The Bulldogs battle three teams inside ESPN's FPI Top 15 this season in their quest in getting back to the league championship game and being in the Playoff conversation.
ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
Projected record: 9.0-1.6
What the FPI says: The Crimson Tide's toughest game this season according to ESPN's algorithm comes in mid-November at LSU. Alabama is winning 57.6 percent of projected simulations, with the next toughest coming earlier in the season at home vs. Georgia, who has won three straight Eastern Division crowns.
