After pushback from SEC coaches on a model that would guarantee four automatic bids for the SEC and Big Ten, the 5+11 format may now be favored. But that would put the SEC at odds with its partner in deciding the CFP future.
sports.yahoo.com
MIRAMAR BEACH, Fla. ā Inside one of the Hilton Sandestin's many meeting rooms, some of the most highly paid and recognizable college football coaches, sitting alongside their athletic directors, tossed a proverbial wrench into playoff format discussions this week.
A majority of the SECās coaches did not support the multiple automatic-qualifier playoff structure that had gained momentum with a large group of their administrators.
A ninth conference game? No thanks, plenty of coaches said.
A season-ending, inner-conference play-in game? No way, some of them told ADs.
The 16 coaches werenāt completely aligned against the concepts, but the room wasnāt split either: They preferred a format that is similar to the current 12-team bracket ā a 5+11 model with five automatic qualifiers for conference champions and 11 at-large bids instead of the so-called ā4-4-2-2-1ā model that grants twice as many qualifiers to the Big Ten and SEC (four each) than to the ACC and Big 12 (two each).
The stance from SEC coaches ā and the pushback from the public, other conferences and even television partner ESPN on the 4-4-2-2-1 format ā has, perhaps, altered the conversation around the future of footballās postseason as the three-day SEC spring meetings ended Thursday.
So, what now?
During his final news conference from here, SEC commissioner Greg Sankey declined to reveal his leagueās preference in a model, only saying the conference is āinterestedā in certain formats and that he would discuss those in his next meeting with his fellow FBS commissioners. But it is clear, more than ever, just how seriously the SEC is considering the 5+11 model.
Take Thursdayās news conference, for example. While Sankey spoke, SEC officials distributed to media members a seven-page packet of data highlighting the conferenceās strength of schedule ā part of Sankeyās weeklong agenda to lay groundwork for a change to the CFP selection committeeās criteria. He and his league administrators and coaches want more value placed upon the strength-of-schedule metric.
In flipping through the packet, Sankey identified certain data points and described his conference as ānot like any other.ā His regular-season schedule is āuniqueā and āstands alone,ā he said.
Such an intense argument from the commissioner speaks to the serious nature of the SECās consideration for the coachās preference, the 5+11 format, instead of a model ā 4-4-2-2-1 ā that would significantly limit the selection committee's role.
The debate now rages onward as conference commissioners will soon schedule a meeting to further discuss playoff options. They have before them one of the most significant and landscape-altering decisions in college athletics history.
And the proverbial CFP ball seems as if it is firmly planted in the SECās court. The leagueās decision on the two most-discussed 16-team formats is expected to tip the scales ā perhaps the final vote needed for either format.
Which will it be? The Big Ten-backed ā4-4-2-2-1ā model or the Big 12 and ACC-backed ā5+11ā format that may put at odds college footballās two goliaths and the controllers of the format itself: the Big Ten and SEC.
Letās dive in.
The 4-4-2-2-1: More money and guaranteed access
In this revenue-generating model, SEC and Big Ten officials have discussed holding season-ending play-in style games pitting their third, fourth, fifth and sixth-place finishers against one another, with the winners gaining the leagueās final two playoff spots. Also, in this format, the SEC would likely move to a nine-game conference schedule.
Both of these concepts generate more revenue at a time when schools are at their height of financial stress. How much revenue? That remains uncertain, but ESPN is gearing up to finalize an offer with the SEC of as much $5 million per school annually in additional revenue for the SECās ninth conference game.
Two additional play-in games per year could fetch millions more.
Along with the extra cash, there is the guarantee of always having four participants and, in some years, a fifth with at-large bids.
The argument from coaches is quite simple against this model: too many games. Teams participating in play-in games, then playing in the first round of the CFP and advancing to the national championship game will have played 18 contests.
Their other issues with this format? Well, it could cause the complete implosion of the CFP as an entity. The Big 12, ACC, Notre Dame and several Group of Six conferences are strongly fighting against the format ā publicly, privately and politically, too. The battle has turned feisty on the public scene and could result in legal action over a memorandum of understanding signed last year that grants authority over the future format to the Big Ten and SEC.
Big 12 and ACC officials donāt seem to be backing down. Would the Big Ten and SEC really leave the CFP to start their own playoff with just the two of them?
Itās not so foreign of a concept as it sounds. Last spring, leaders of the Big Ten and SEC threatened to leave the CFP if not granted both significant revenue in a new distribution model (the leagues will now get 58% of the revenue) and authority over any future format.
Some SEC administrators here have wondered aloud this week if an SEC/Big Ten-only playoff is the right path. āThere would be no argument that the winner is the national champion, right?ā asked one high-level SEC school official.
But such a move may be viewed as political suicide for two conferences that are fighting for congressional assistance. After all, more than half of U.S. states donāt have an SEC or Big Ten school in their boundaries.
How would their U.S. senators and congressmen react to the implosion of the industry?
Perhaps thatās why the SEC and Big Ten have not yet decided on a format, Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin said earlier this week.
āThatās why we havenāt moved forward,ā he told reporters Tuesday. āWeāre trying to navigate all that. Thatās where Greg Sankey is so good. Heās got a great way of navigating and bringing people along together. Weāre trying to find solutions to legitimate questions and the solutions are not easy. Something has got to give somewhere.ā
The 5+11: Perhaps more teams and new criteria
Data shared with SEC presidents, athletic directors and coaches this week showed, in a 5+11 model, the league may actually have a chance at more playoff participants compared to a 4-4-2-2-1 format.
āTake the top 12-14-16 teams,ā LSU coach Brian Kelly says. āThatās my personal opinion. Weād much rather have a situation where more of our teams could get in than limiting it with AQs.ā
Itās true. Since the 2014 playoff, the Big Ten led all conferences with 59 total teams ranked inside the top 16 of the CFPās rankings heading into conference championship weekend, or about 5.3 teams a year. The SEC has had 55 teams (5.0 a year), followed by the Big 12 (2.4) and the ACC (2.1).
But the data should be taken with a grain of salt. It considers conference-realignment shifts (ie: Oklahoma is counted toward the SEC figures, USC for the Big Ten, Stanford for the ACC, Utah for the Big 12, etc.). And it also doesnāt consider the ACC and SEC potentially playing a ninth conference game. They currently each play eight while the Big 12 and Big Ten play nine.
Perhaps most important, a move to a 5+11 format will necessitate a change to the selection committeeās criteria, according to SEC administrators and coaches.
Such a model relies heavily on a committee that many SEC leaders publicly attacked this week. At times, it seemed like a choreographed assault on the athletic administrators, former coaches and others on the 13-member committee that selects and seeds the teams.
āA committee is not ideal to choose a postseason,ā Stricklin said. āI question whether it is appropriate for college football.ā
āThe selection committeeās role is not to send messages, but the outcome of their decisions do,ā Oklahoma athletic director Joe Castiglione said.
Kelly even suggested a move toward more data-driven method to choosing and seeding teams such as the BCS.
āWe got away from the old model with the computer and now weāve got it totally subjective,ā he told Yahoo Sports. āCan we find a way to bring it more to the middle with a little more information on strength of schedule, quality of opponents, things of that nature?ā
Much of the discussion on CFP format this week here centered on the committeeās insistence on relying too much on the loss column, SEC coaches and administrators say.
āDoes strength of schedule matter or not?ā asked South Carolina coach Shane Beamer. āIf strength of schedule doesnāt matter, the only number theyāre going to be really looking at is on the right side of the column ā how many losses do you have?ā
The College Football Playoff is in the midst of examining its selection committee criteria with a goal of revamping the process in a move, very likely, to appease the SECās wishes.
But the Big Ten is another matter.
The SECās consideration for 5+11 has elicited surprise from the Big Ten group. In fact, Big Ten athletic directors, in a call Wednesday, discussed the 5+11 format, and
many of them do not support such a format if the SEC remains at eight conference games. The Big Ten plays nine conference games, something viewed as a disadvantage as half of the league will be saddled with an extra loss while attempting to jockey for 11 at-large spots.
Would it be possible for the SEC to move to nine conference games in a 5+11 format? That seems doubtful without an overhaul of the committeeās criteria.
āIf weāre not confident that the decision-making about who gets in and why, and the metrics around it, itās going to be hard for my colleagues to get to nine games,ā Texas A&M athletic director Trev Albert says.
What now?
Timing is a problem, even Sankey acknowledges that.
The SEC must determine its 2026 conference schedule ā eight games or nine ā by the end of the summer, at the latest. Sankey said Wednesday he doesnāt anticipate that a future CFP format will be determined by that time, suggesting that both (1) playoff negotiations will extend into the fall and (2) the SEC may play eight league games in 2026.
āThe pressure point for us is weāre going to have to make a decision for our 2026 schedule in a timeframe shorter than the deadline for CFP decisions,ā said Sankey, referencing the CFP deadline of Dec. 1 to determine a 2026 playoff format. āIām not sure we can work through obligations in [that timeframe].ā
But why exactly? Every other league has voiced its preference for a particular format. The SECās decision tips the scales. Whatās the holdup?
Questioned about that, Sankey cited the memorandum of understanding granting authority to the Big Ten and SEC over the future format as long as they hold āmeaningful consultationā with the other conferences.
āWe have certain responsibilities in that memo,ā he said.
And, so, the CFP format discussions march onward with another twist in tow: a tune-change in the SEC that could very well put it at odds with the Big Ten.