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š ESPN's SEC Blog-- Previewing the SEC West
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Auburn Tigers preview
Back-to-back defeats (Iron Bowl and Outback Bowl) made for a disappointing finish to ā14. But despite the departure of the Tigersā QB and RB, there is still plenty of optimism on the Plains with the arrival of D-coordinator Will Muschamp, who gives Auburn one of the top coaching tandems in college football.
Offense
How the Tigers beat you: Auburn ran the ball on 68 percent of plays the past two seasons with Nick Marshall under center (1,866 rush yards, 23 TDs combined), but a change at QBāand the loss of RB Cameron Artis-Payne (SEC-high 123.7 ypg)āmeans a change in style. Expect more balance with pro-style passer Jeremy Johnson (11.8 ypa on 37 throws in ā14) and the return of WRs Dāhaquille Williams (730 yards in 10 games before a right knee injury) andMelvin Ray (8 catches, 22.8 ypc). Still, the core of coach Gus Malzahnās offenseāthe hurry-up, no-huddleāwill never change. āWe believe in playing fast and up-tempo,ā says O-coordinator Rhett Lashlee, whose unit dropped from No. 3 to No. 6 in the SEC in total plays in ā14. āThatās something we are really stressing to get better at this year.ā
How you beat the Tigers: In Auburnās eight wins, it failed to score a touchdown on just seven of 35 red zone trips. In the Tigersā five losses, their red zone TD rate dropped from 80 percent to 43.5 (just 10 TDs on 23 drives inside the 20). That inability to capitalize was never more glaring than in the 55-44 Iron Bowl loss to Alabama, in which Auburn failed to score six on six of its eight red zone trips. Auburn will still move the ball, but the offense, featuring four new skill-positionstarters, canāt afford to waste drives.
Defense
How the Tigers beat you: Eight starters return from a defense that allowed 26.7 ppg (fifth most in the SEC) and gave up 230.1 pass ypg (third most). While some blame goes to the secondary, the lack of a pass rush (21 sacks at a 4.8 percent rate, No. 12 in the SEC) was atypical of an Auburn D. Losing Dee Ford (NFL) and Carl Lawson (ACL injury) took a toll on a unit that thrived on pressure in ā13 (32 sacks, No. 3 in the SEC). The addition of Muschampās schemes should help, as will the return of five starters to the front seven, including last yearās top three players in sacks. With Lawson also back, Malzahn believes Auburn can rush the passer with just four up front, allowing its athletic LBs to help against the pass.
How you beat the Tigers: Former defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson might still be employed had Auburn cut down on what he called ātrash plays.ā The Tigers allowed 68 plays (24 runs, 44 throws) of 20-plus yards last season, most in the SEC, and allowed 5.7 yards per play, fourth worst in the league. Keeping containment is an areaālike so many others on defenseāthat should improve under Muschamp, but the loss of safety Jermaine Whitehead (6 INTs, tied for second in the SEC with returning teammate Jonathan Jones) canāt be overstated.
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Back-to-back defeats (Iron Bowl and Outback Bowl) made for a disappointing finish to ā14. But despite the departure of the Tigersā QB and RB, there is still plenty of optimism on the Plains with the arrival of D-coordinator Will Muschamp, who gives Auburn one of the top coaching tandems in college football.
Offense
How the Tigers beat you: Auburn ran the ball on 68 percent of plays the past two seasons with Nick Marshall under center (1,866 rush yards, 23 TDs combined), but a change at QBāand the loss of RB Cameron Artis-Payne (SEC-high 123.7 ypg)āmeans a change in style. Expect more balance with pro-style passer Jeremy Johnson (11.8 ypa on 37 throws in ā14) and the return of WRs Dāhaquille Williams (730 yards in 10 games before a right knee injury) andMelvin Ray (8 catches, 22.8 ypc). Still, the core of coach Gus Malzahnās offenseāthe hurry-up, no-huddleāwill never change. āWe believe in playing fast and up-tempo,ā says O-coordinator Rhett Lashlee, whose unit dropped from No. 3 to No. 6 in the SEC in total plays in ā14. āThatās something we are really stressing to get better at this year.ā
How you beat the Tigers: In Auburnās eight wins, it failed to score a touchdown on just seven of 35 red zone trips. In the Tigersā five losses, their red zone TD rate dropped from 80 percent to 43.5 (just 10 TDs on 23 drives inside the 20). That inability to capitalize was never more glaring than in the 55-44 Iron Bowl loss to Alabama, in which Auburn failed to score six on six of its eight red zone trips. Auburn will still move the ball, but the offense, featuring four new skill-positionstarters, canāt afford to waste drives.
Defense
How the Tigers beat you: Eight starters return from a defense that allowed 26.7 ppg (fifth most in the SEC) and gave up 230.1 pass ypg (third most). While some blame goes to the secondary, the lack of a pass rush (21 sacks at a 4.8 percent rate, No. 12 in the SEC) was atypical of an Auburn D. Losing Dee Ford (NFL) and Carl Lawson (ACL injury) took a toll on a unit that thrived on pressure in ā13 (32 sacks, No. 3 in the SEC). The addition of Muschampās schemes should help, as will the return of five starters to the front seven, including last yearās top three players in sacks. With Lawson also back, Malzahn believes Auburn can rush the passer with just four up front, allowing its athletic LBs to help against the pass.
How you beat the Tigers: Former defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson might still be employed had Auburn cut down on what he called ātrash plays.ā The Tigers allowed 68 plays (24 runs, 44 throws) of 20-plus yards last season, most in the SEC, and allowed 5.7 yards per play, fourth worst in the league. Keeping containment is an areaālike so many others on defenseāthat should improve under Muschamp, but the loss of safety Jermaine Whitehead (6 INTs, tied for second in the SEC with returning teammate Jonathan Jones) canāt be overstated.
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BAMANEWSBOT
Staff
Arkansas Razorbacks preview
Despite playing eight games against top-20 teams, Arkansas won four of its last six, shutting out LSU and Ole Miss after 17 straight SEC losses. The Hogs have a top O-line, and theyāve improved defensively under DC Robb Smith. āLast year wasnāt a landing point, it was a launching point,ā coach Bret Bielema says.
Offense
How the Razorbacks beat you: Bielema revels in pounding teams into submission and then taking his shots in the passing game, and the Hogs recorded the most time of possession in the SEC last season. They return two 1,000-yard rushers in Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins, along with four starters on a mammoth offensive line that should be as good as any in the conference. Fifth-year senior QB Brandon Allen was healthy in ā14, and it showedāhe threw just 5 INTs on 339 pass attempts. Look for more play-action passing under first-year coordinator Dan Enos, especially targeting junior TEHunter Henry, who led the SEC in first-down catches at the position (26).
How you beat the Razorbacks: Stretching the field is a must; Arkansas had just 29 catches of at least 20 yards last season, 98th in the FBS. āThe system allows guys to line up in a lot of different places, and itās a system weāve used at several different places,ā says Enos, whose recent stops have been Cincinnati, Michigan State and Central Michigan, where he was head coach. The hope is that newcomer Dominique Reed can be a deep threat as defenses crowd the line to stop the run game. Leading receiver Keon Hatcher is back, but the Hogs donāt have a wealth of proven playmakers on the perimeter.
Defense
How the Razorbacks beat you: No SEC team improved more on defense last season than the Hogs, who did it with tough, physical play from their front seven. They cut their yards allowed per game from 413.4 in ā13 to just 323.4 last year, second best in the conference. Replacing end Trey Flowers, tackle Darius Philon and linebacker Martrell Spaight wonāt be easy, but junior end Deatrich Wise Jr. is healthy after playing hurt for much of last season, and junior tackleTaiwan Johnson has beefed up to 273 pounds, sliding into Philonās spot. Additionally, junior Brooks Ellis (72 tackles) moves from middle linebacker to the weak side. āHe is one of the more fluid linebackers Iāve ever been around,ā Bielema says.
How you beat the Razorbacks: With finishers like Flowers and Philon gone, there will be even more pressure on the linebackers and secondary to make plays in space. It remains to be seen whether the Hogs have improved their speed on defense enough to match up with the playmakers theyāll see in the SEC. The coaches like the young talent at linebacker and defensive back, but finishing games has been a problem. The Razorbacks gave up 107.8 ypg in the fourth quarter in ā14, and Bielema is 0ā7 at Arkansas in games decided by a touchdown or less.
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Despite playing eight games against top-20 teams, Arkansas won four of its last six, shutting out LSU and Ole Miss after 17 straight SEC losses. The Hogs have a top O-line, and theyāve improved defensively under DC Robb Smith. āLast year wasnāt a landing point, it was a launching point,ā coach Bret Bielema says.
Offense
How the Razorbacks beat you: Bielema revels in pounding teams into submission and then taking his shots in the passing game, and the Hogs recorded the most time of possession in the SEC last season. They return two 1,000-yard rushers in Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins, along with four starters on a mammoth offensive line that should be as good as any in the conference. Fifth-year senior QB Brandon Allen was healthy in ā14, and it showedāhe threw just 5 INTs on 339 pass attempts. Look for more play-action passing under first-year coordinator Dan Enos, especially targeting junior TEHunter Henry, who led the SEC in first-down catches at the position (26).
How you beat the Razorbacks: Stretching the field is a must; Arkansas had just 29 catches of at least 20 yards last season, 98th in the FBS. āThe system allows guys to line up in a lot of different places, and itās a system weāve used at several different places,ā says Enos, whose recent stops have been Cincinnati, Michigan State and Central Michigan, where he was head coach. The hope is that newcomer Dominique Reed can be a deep threat as defenses crowd the line to stop the run game. Leading receiver Keon Hatcher is back, but the Hogs donāt have a wealth of proven playmakers on the perimeter.
Defense
How the Razorbacks beat you: No SEC team improved more on defense last season than the Hogs, who did it with tough, physical play from their front seven. They cut their yards allowed per game from 413.4 in ā13 to just 323.4 last year, second best in the conference. Replacing end Trey Flowers, tackle Darius Philon and linebacker Martrell Spaight wonāt be easy, but junior end Deatrich Wise Jr. is healthy after playing hurt for much of last season, and junior tackleTaiwan Johnson has beefed up to 273 pounds, sliding into Philonās spot. Additionally, junior Brooks Ellis (72 tackles) moves from middle linebacker to the weak side. āHe is one of the more fluid linebackers Iāve ever been around,ā Bielema says.
How you beat the Razorbacks: With finishers like Flowers and Philon gone, there will be even more pressure on the linebackers and secondary to make plays in space. It remains to be seen whether the Hogs have improved their speed on defense enough to match up with the playmakers theyāll see in the SEC. The coaches like the young talent at linebacker and defensive back, but finishing games has been a problem. The Razorbacks gave up 107.8 ypg in the fourth quarter in ā14, and Bielema is 0ā7 at Arkansas in games decided by a touchdown or less.
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BAMANEWSBOT
Staff
Alabama Crimson Tide Preview
Most programs would kill for one national title a decade, much less three. But when youāre the Crimson Tide and coached by the venerable Nick Saban, going two seasons without one must feel like an eternity. With a new QB, a void at WR and a once-machine-like D in need of fixing, a return to glory is a long climb.
Offense
How the Tide beat you: In one season, Lane Kiffin changed everything. He took an offense that evoked three yards and a cloud of dust and turned it into a monster truck rally. The Tide attacked from all angles, dumping the huddle in favor of the hurry-up and in turn creating the most plays of 20-plus yards (81) in the Saban era. Of course, the personnel mostly responsible for the turnaroundāQB Blake Sims (3,487 pass yards, No. 2 in the SEC; 28 TDs, No. 1) and WR Amari Cooper (124 catches, No. 1 in the FBS; 1,727 yards, No. 2)āmust be replaced by a journeyman backup (Jake Coker) and a WR committee (ArDarius Stewart, Robert Foster and Chris Black) that had 33 catches. But Saban says itās no different from a year ago, when Kiffin took Sims, a four-year backup, and engineered the SECās second-best offense (36.9 ppg).
How you beat the Tide: Things get dicey when Kiffin becomes one-dimensional. In the Sugar Bowl loss to Ohio State, Sims had his second-most pass attempts (36). In a 14-13 win over Arkansas, Alabama was held to a season-low 66 rushing yards. In fact, since Saban arrived in ā07, when Bama throws for 300-plus yards, its winning percentage actually drops 9.2 points. If it doesnāt reach 100 yards rushing, the rate plummets from 88.7 percent to 45.5.
Defense
How the Tide beat you: Beating Bama at the point of attack is like trying to push back, well, the tide. Since ā09, no team in the FBS has allowed fewer rushing yards (90.7 ypg). Last season the Tide gave up 102.4 rushing ypg (No. 4 in the FBS) and had a red zone efficiency of 38.6 percent (No. 2) while holding opponents to 18.4 ppg (No. 6). D-linemen AāShawn Robinson and Jarran Reed(13 TFL combined in ā14) both should play on Sundays. On the outside, DEJonathan Allen is the top TFL returner (11), and LB Reggie Ragland, the top returning tackler and himself a likely pro, says to keep an eye on under-the-radar junior LB Tim Williams. āHe can lead the country in sacks,ā Ragland says. āThatās how fast and physical he is.ā
How you beat the Tide: Run an up-tempo offense, incorporate a mobile QB and youāve got a puncherās chance. Just look at Nick Marshall, Johnny Manziel and Cardale Jones, who each led a hurry-up to the first- (630), second- (628) and third-most (537) yards allowed, respectively, by a Saban-coached Bama defense. But the biggest issue of late hasnāt been wrangling a fleet-footed QB, itās been clamping down on the deep ball. In ā14, the Tide gave up 43 passes of 20-plus yards, the most in at least a decade and a far cry from 2011, when they led the FBS with just 15. āA.S.
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Most programs would kill for one national title a decade, much less three. But when youāre the Crimson Tide and coached by the venerable Nick Saban, going two seasons without one must feel like an eternity. With a new QB, a void at WR and a once-machine-like D in need of fixing, a return to glory is a long climb.
Offense
How the Tide beat you: In one season, Lane Kiffin changed everything. He took an offense that evoked three yards and a cloud of dust and turned it into a monster truck rally. The Tide attacked from all angles, dumping the huddle in favor of the hurry-up and in turn creating the most plays of 20-plus yards (81) in the Saban era. Of course, the personnel mostly responsible for the turnaroundāQB Blake Sims (3,487 pass yards, No. 2 in the SEC; 28 TDs, No. 1) and WR Amari Cooper (124 catches, No. 1 in the FBS; 1,727 yards, No. 2)āmust be replaced by a journeyman backup (Jake Coker) and a WR committee (ArDarius Stewart, Robert Foster and Chris Black) that had 33 catches. But Saban says itās no different from a year ago, when Kiffin took Sims, a four-year backup, and engineered the SECās second-best offense (36.9 ppg).
How you beat the Tide: Things get dicey when Kiffin becomes one-dimensional. In the Sugar Bowl loss to Ohio State, Sims had his second-most pass attempts (36). In a 14-13 win over Arkansas, Alabama was held to a season-low 66 rushing yards. In fact, since Saban arrived in ā07, when Bama throws for 300-plus yards, its winning percentage actually drops 9.2 points. If it doesnāt reach 100 yards rushing, the rate plummets from 88.7 percent to 45.5.
Defense
How the Tide beat you: Beating Bama at the point of attack is like trying to push back, well, the tide. Since ā09, no team in the FBS has allowed fewer rushing yards (90.7 ypg). Last season the Tide gave up 102.4 rushing ypg (No. 4 in the FBS) and had a red zone efficiency of 38.6 percent (No. 2) while holding opponents to 18.4 ppg (No. 6). D-linemen AāShawn Robinson and Jarran Reed(13 TFL combined in ā14) both should play on Sundays. On the outside, DEJonathan Allen is the top TFL returner (11), and LB Reggie Ragland, the top returning tackler and himself a likely pro, says to keep an eye on under-the-radar junior LB Tim Williams. āHe can lead the country in sacks,ā Ragland says. āThatās how fast and physical he is.ā
How you beat the Tide: Run an up-tempo offense, incorporate a mobile QB and youāve got a puncherās chance. Just look at Nick Marshall, Johnny Manziel and Cardale Jones, who each led a hurry-up to the first- (630), second- (628) and third-most (537) yards allowed, respectively, by a Saban-coached Bama defense. But the biggest issue of late hasnāt been wrangling a fleet-footed QB, itās been clamping down on the deep ball. In ā14, the Tide gave up 43 passes of 20-plus yards, the most in at least a decade and a far cry from 2011, when they led the FBS with just 15. āA.S.
ESPN's SEC BlogāContinue reading...
I'll have to double-check my numbers just to be sure, but if memory serves the SECW went 39-9 in home games last year. Two of those losses came to teams from the SECE: UGA over UArk and Mizzou over A&M.
This fall, unless it's another SECW team, the chances of a team in the Western Division losing a home game? Not worth betting on to say the least. It's getting to the point in this division a road win is an accomplishment.
The way it sits now, you can take any team in the West and find three to five teams on their schedule that they could lose a game against. Anyone forecasting the Tide to finish the regular season with three losses has a foundation to stand upon. I'm not saying that's how I see the season working itself out. I am saying with our schedule (possibly as tough as 2010, likely tougher,) and uncertainty in a few areas the possibility exist, strongly, we find ourselves disappointed in December.
This fall, unless it's another SECW team, the chances of a team in the Western Division losing a home game? Not worth betting on to say the least. It's getting to the point in this division a road win is an accomplishment.
The way it sits now, you can take any team in the West and find three to five teams on their schedule that they could lose a game against. Anyone forecasting the Tide to finish the regular season with three losses has a foundation to stand upon. I'm not saying that's how I see the season working itself out. I am saying with our schedule (possibly as tough as 2010, likely tougher,) and uncertainty in a few areas the possibility exist, strongly, we find ourselves disappointed in December.
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