🏈 ESPN's SEC Blog-- Previewing the Alabama Crimson Tide.

[BAMANEWSBOT]

Most programs would kill for one national title a decade, much less three. But when you’re the Crimson Tide and coached by the venerable Nick Saban, going two seasons without one must feel like an eternity. With a new QB, a void at WR and a once-machine-like D in need of fixing, a return to glory is a long climb.

Offense
How the Tide beat you: In one season, Lane Kiffin changed everything. He took an offense that evoked three yards and a cloud of dust and turned it into a monster truck rally. The Tide attacked from all angles, dumping the huddle in favor of the hurry-up and in turn creating the most plays of 20-plus yards (81) in the Saban era. Of course, the personnel mostly responsible for the turnaround—QB Blake Sims (3,487 pass yards, No. 2 in the SEC; 28 TDs, No. 1) and WR Amari Cooper (124 catches, No. 1 in the FBS; 1,727 yards, No. 2)—must be replaced by a journeyman backup (Jake Coker) and a WR committee (ArDarius Stewart, Robert Foster and Chris Black) that had 33 catches. But Saban says it’s no different from a year ago, when Kiffin took Sims, a four-year backup, and engineered the SEC’s second-best offense (36.9 ppg).

How you beat the Tide: Things get dicey when Kiffin becomes one-dimensional. In the Sugar Bowl loss to Ohio State, Sims had his second-most pass attempts (36). In a 14-13 win over Arkansas, Alabama was held to a season-low 66 rushing yards. In fact, since Saban arrived in ’07, when Bama throws for 300-plus yards, its winning percentage actually drops 9.2 points. If it doesn’t reach 100 yards rushing, the rate plummets from 88.7 percent to 45.5.

Defense
How the Tide beat you: Beating Bama at the point of attack is like trying to push back, well, the tide. Since ’09, no team in the FBS has allowed fewer rushing yards (90.7 ypg). Last season the Tide gave up 102.4 rushing ypg (No. 4 in the FBS) and had a red zone efficiency of 38.6 percent (No. 2) while holding opponents to 18.4 ppg (No. 6). D-linemen A’Shawn Robinson and Jarran Reed(13 TFL combined in ’14) both should play on Sundays. On the outside, DEJonathan Allen is the top TFL returner (11), and LB Reggie Ragland, the top returning tackler and himself a likely pro, says to keep an eye on under-the-radar junior LB Tim Williams. “He can lead the country in sacks,” Ragland says. “That’s how fast and physical he is.”

How you beat the Tide: Run an up-tempo offense, incorporate a mobile QB and you’ve got a puncher’s chance. Just look at Nick Marshall, Johnny Manziel and Cardale Jones, who each led a hurry-up to the first- (630), second- (628) and third-most (537) yards allowed, respectively, by a Saban-coached Bama defense. But the biggest issue of late hasn’t been wrangling a fleet-footed QB, it’s been clamping down on the deep ball. In ’14, the Tide gave up 43 passes of 20-plus yards, the most in at least a decade and a far cry from 2011, when they led the FBS with just 15. —A.S.

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[TerryP]

I'll have to double-check my numbers just to be sure, but if memory serves the SECW went 39-9 in home games last year. Two of those losses came to teams from the SECE: UGA over UArk and Mizzou over A&M.

This fall, unless it's another SECW team, the chances of a team in the Western Division losing a home game? Not worth betting on to say the least. It's getting to the point in this division a road win is an accomplishment.

The way it sits now, you can take any team in the West and find three to five teams on their schedule that they could lose a game against. Anyone forecasting the Tide to finish the regular season with three losses has a foundation to stand upon. I'm not saying that's how I see the season working itself out. I am saying with our schedule (possibly as tough as 2010, likely tougher,) and uncertainty in a few areas the possibility exist, strongly, we find ourselves disappointed in December.

 

[MissingRing]

I agree, reluctantly. Alabama is dangerously thin at RB. The QB competition currently looks like a battle of journeymen. Place kicking remains suspect. The offensive line will be 3/5 new. And then, there is the schedule. According to Phil Steele, the toughest in the nation, yet odds makers (e.g., Bovada) have us ranked as high as #2 on the "likely to win the next national championship" list. Makes you wonder what facts they are looking at.

 

[TerryP]

Makes you wonder what facts they are looking at.

Depth, in my opinion. Overall, not just one position.

If you look at our two-deep, you'll find well over 35 players who'll be eligible next season. I'm not saying we'll have that many drafted, but I'll step out on a limb and say we'll double the number we had this past draft. (six in 2015.)

And then there's coaching...

 

[TerryP]

If you look at our two-deep, you'll find well over 35 players who'll be eligible next season

From the thread posted by @12gage

On expectations for the season: “Alabama should be the best team in the nation for the fourth year in a row and win the national championship. They’ve got 40 guys on the roster that will play in the NFL. Nobody else in the SEC has 25. They’ve got five-stars playing third and fourth team. With their depth, you can never count them out.”​