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Early SEC Football Predictions for 2021

The early SEC football predictions for 2021 feature a similar balance of power atop both divisions. Alabama is the favorite in the West Division once again and

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The early SEC football predictions for 2021 feature a similar balance of power atop both divisions. Alabama is the favorite in the West Division once again and is Athlon's very early pick as the No. 1 team in the nation next fall. Georgia takes the top spot in the East after slipping behind Florida in 2020. The Bulldogs have the pieces in place for another run at the College Football Playoff. Texas A&M and Florida bring up the second tier of teams in the SEC, followed by LSU, Ole Miss and Auburn. Missouri, Kentucky and Tennessee are locked into a tight battle for the third spot in the East in the very early predictions. Arkansas and Mississippi State should be better in 2021.

It’s never too early to think about predictions or rankings for the 2021 college football season. With that in mind, Athlon provides its early power rankings for the SEC for 2021:

Early SEC Football Predictions for 2021​

East Division​

1. Georgia

The Bulldogs had their three-year run atop the SEC East snapped in 2020, but coach Kirby Smart’s team should be back at No. 1 in ’21. The offense found a late-season spark behind quarterback JT Daniels, and the passing game should take off with a deep receiving corps in place next fall. Zamir White’s decision to pass on the NFL adds another option in a deep backfield for coordinator Todd Monken, and Jamaree Salyer is back to anchor the offensive line. Georgia’s defense ranked second in the SEC in fewest points a game allowed (20) and first in yards per play (4.86). The secondary will be rebuilt, and edge rusher Azeez Ojulari departed early to the NFL. Despite the personnel losses, this unit should continue to be a strength. Georgia opens with a massive showdown against Clemson but won’t have to play Alabama, LSU or Texas A&M in crossover play.

2. Florida

The Gators are the defending SEC East champs, but coach Dan Mullen has a lot of work ahead to get back to Atlanta in 2021. Florida’s offense ranked second in the SEC by averaging 39.8 points a game last fall. However, this unit will look a lot different with quarterback Kyle Trask, receivers Kadarius Toney and Trevon Grimes, tight end Kyle Pitts and a couple of starters gone up front. New quarterback Emory Jones is a talented option, and Mullen never lacks for production on offense. But with the significant personnel losses around the quarterback, some drop-off is expected. If the offense takes a step back, can the defense get back to its 2019 level? The Gators allowed 30.8 points a game in 2020 – a 15-point jump from the previous year. This unit struggled to stop the run, gave up too many big plays, and allowed quarterbacks to complete 64.1 percent of their passes. As if those personnel challenges weren’t enough, Alabama comes to Gainesville, and Florida catches LSU, Kentucky and Missouri on the road next fall.

3. Missouri

Coaching changes and scheme transition were a tough haul in a season with limited or no spring practice and the abbreviated 2020 schedule. However, first-year coach Eli Drinkwitz had a solid first season in Columbia, guiding Missouri to a 5-5 record. With a full offseason to develop players and implement his schemes, Drinkwitz should push this team a little higher in the win column. An offense that averaged 26.7 points a game in 2020 should be better with quarterback Connor Bazelak at the controls, along with four of the team’s starting linemen back. Replacing running back Larry Rountree will be a top priority this spring. A new play-caller takes over the defensive controls after Ryan Walters left to take over the defense at Illinois. The Tigers are losing standout linebacker Nick Bolton to the NFL, but a good chunk of the defense is set to return for 2021. Catching Texas A&M and Arkansas (road) is a tough crossover, and Missouri also plays Kentucky and Georgia away from Columbia.

4. Kentucky

Significant changes are on the way for Kentucky’s offense after this unit averaged 21.8 points a game and 5.2 yards per play in 2020. Rams quarterback coach Liam Coen will take over the play-calling duties for an offense that’s accounted for just 16 touchdown passes over the last two years. Beau Allen and Joey Gatewood will battle for the starting nod, and the return of Josh Ali is a boost for a receiving corps that has to step up in 2021. A standout offensive line has a couple of holes to plug, while Chris Rodriguez (785 yards) powers the ground game. The Wildcats have ranked inside of the top five of the SEC in scoring defense in each of the last three years. Coach Mark Stoops has to replace linebackers Jamar Watson and Jamin Davis, lineman Quinton Bohanna and defensive back Brandin Echols but a good foundation remains in Lexington. Key swing games against Missouri and Tennessee take place at home in 2021.

5. Tennessee

Jeremy Pruitt’s future remains unsettled in mid-January, but putting aside any coaching issues, this team has several personnel questions to address in order to push for a finish higher in the East. Harrison Bailey, Brian Maurer and Virginia Tech transfer Hendon Hooker are set to battle in the spring for the starting quarterback job. Ty Chandler’s transfer means a bigger role for Eric Gray should be in order at running back, and there’s talent at receiver with Jalin Hyatt and Velus Jones outside. Cade Mays is back to lead the way up front, but guard Trey Smith will be missed. Tennessee’s defense didn’t have a player earn All-SEC honors and gave up 30.1 points a game in 2020. Linebacker Henry To’o To’o is back, but this unit lost cornerback Bryce Thompson early to the NFL. Road dates against Kentucky, Florida, Missouri and Alabama are on tap, and Lane Kiffin returns to Knoxville with a talented Ole Miss team.

6. South Carolina

New coach Shane Beamer was a popular hire in Columbia, but the former Oklahoma assistant takes over a team that went 2-8 in 2020 and enters the spring with major concerns on both sides of the ball. New play-caller Marcus Satterfield inherits some talented pieces on offense with quarterback Luke Doty and running backs Kevin Harris and MarShawn Lloyd. The bulk of the offensive line will return, but playmakers at receiver are limited after Shi Smith departed for the NFL. The uncertainty continues to the defense after allowing 36 points a game in 2020. With transfers and departures hitting every level, new coordinator Clayton White needs a big year from players like Jordan Burch, Tonka Hemingway, Zacch Pickens and Mohamed Kaba.

7. Vanderbilt

Clark Lea is a good hire, but the former Notre Dame defensive coordinator inherits a ton of challenges in his first year on the job. The Commodores averaged only 14.8 points a game in 2020 and surrendered 37.3. Lea’s background should bring some improvement to the defense this fall. Quarterback Ken Seals is coming off a promising freshman season, with running back Keyon Henry-Brooks and receiver Cam Johnson headlining the skill position talent. Restocking and improving the offensive line remain top priorities this spring. One piece of good news for Lea is on the scheduling front. Vanderbilt won’t have to play any of the projected top three teams from the West in crossover play, and winnable games against ETSU, UConn and Mississippi State take place in Nashville.

West Division

1. Alabama

Even with the loss of quarterback Mac Jones, running back Najee Harris and receiver DeVonta Smith, coach Nick Saban’s team has all of the pieces to win it all again in 2021. New quarterback Bryce Young is primed for a breakout year, and the backfield has plenty of options to take over for Harris. John Metchie III seems likely to assume the go-to role at receiver, but contributions from unproven (but talented) players are needed to give Young a full deck of options. The line is losing a couple of key cogs, including left tackle Alex Leatherwood. The defense will also lose a couple of major contributors, but this unit has the potential to be better in 2021, especially if linebacker Will Anderson continues to develop into one of the nation’s top pass rushers.

2. Texas A&M

Jimbo Fisher has Texas A&M on the right track entering 2021. The next step is to get to the CFB Playoff after just missing in 2020, but Fisher and the staff have to find a quarterback to replace Kellen Mond, develop more explosive plays out of the passing game and restock a standout offensive line. The running back corps – led by Isaiah Spiller – should be among the best in college football. A defense that limited teams to 21.7 points a game will be even better next fall. Jayden Peevy and DeMarvin Leal anchor a strong defensive line, and Aaron Hansford’s return for an extra senior year was a boost to the linebacker unit. Alabama comes to College Station next season, but Fisher’s team plays at Ole Miss and LSU.

3. LSU

How quickly can Ed Orgeron get LSU back into contention for the SEC title? The Tigers slipped to 5-5 after winning it all in 2019. There’s too much talent in the program to expect a repeat of ’20, and Orgeron hopes a staff reboot provides a needed lift. Three talented quarterbacks – Myles Brennan, TJ Finley and Max Johnson – are back to compete for the starting nod, with receiver Kayshon Boutte primed for a breakout year as the No. 1 option under new play-caller Jake Peetz. Both lines of scrimmage figure to improve in 2021, and the defense still has one of the better cornerback pairings in college football in Derek Stingley and Eli Ricks. Florida, Texas A&M, Arkansas and Auburn come to Baton Rouge next fall, while trips to UCLA, Alabama and Ole Miss are slated next season.

4. Ole Miss

It’s full steam ahead for the Lane Train in 2021, as the Rebels have a good chance to be a top-25 team. Kiffin’s squad averaged nearly seven yards a snap (6.97) behind quarterback Matt Corral and a cast of dynamic playmakers. Even with receiver Elijah Moore and tight end Kenny Yeboah off to the NFL, there’s more than enough firepower to keep the Ole Miss offense near the top of the SEC. While scoring points won’t be a problem, Kiffin and his staff have to find some answers for a defense that surrendered 6.7 yards a play and 38.3 points a game. Improvement on this side of the ball could be the difference between finishing in the top 25 or just outside of that range. Ole Miss has a tough road slate in 2021 (Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State and Tennessee), but Arkansas, LSU and Texas A&M visit Oxford.

5. Auburn

Offense is new coach Bryan Harsin’s specialty, and there’s a lengthy to-do list on tap for the former Boise State coach this spring. Harsin has to get quarterback Bo Nix to elevate his game after two up-and-down seasons as the starting quarterback. The backfield should be a strength, but Auburn is replacing its top three receivers and question marks remain in the trenches. Derek Mason is a strong hire as defensive coordinator, and as usual, there’s plenty of talent to work with on the roster. Cornerback Roger McCreary, linebacker Zakoby McClain and safety Smoke Monday each passed on the NFL to return for one more season. A road trip to Penn State is set for Sept. 18, but Harsin’s team gets Ole Miss, Alabama and Georgia in Jordan-Hare Stadium next fall.

6. Arkansas

Sam Pittman was a surprise hire, but he quickly won over the doubters in 2020. While the Razorbacks were just 3-7, there was noticeable improvement on both sides of the ball. Look for another step forward in ’21, as Arkansas’ depth chart returns largely intact, and KJ Jefferson should ensure a seamless transition at quarterback with Feleipe Franks off to the NFL. Receivers Treylon Burks (16.1 ypc) and Mike Woods (19.3) are an underrated duo on the outside. Defensively, the Razorbacks gave up 5.65 yards per play – nearly a full yard less after surrendering 6.5 in 2019. Similar to the offense, this unit returns nearly intact and received a huge boost when linebacker Grant Morgan opted to return for an extra year. Pittman won’t have any breaks in his second tour as head coach. Texas is on tap in non-conference play, and Arkansas plays at Alabama, Georgia, LSU and Ole Miss.

7. Mississippi State

After a surprise win at LSU in the season opener, Mississippi State dropped its next four games under new coach Mike Leach. However, the Bulldogs improved over the second half of 2020 by winning three of their next six contests and losing two games by a touchdown. A full offseason to implement Leach’s high-powered passing attack will help the Bulldogs’ offense, and there’s a lot to build around with the return of quarterback Will Rogers, running backs Jo’quavious Marks and Dillon Johnson, along with receiver Jaden Walley. Mississippi State’s defense was underrated in 2020 but will miss linebacker Erroll Thompson and lineman Marquiss Spencer next fall. Most of the depth chart outside of those two players will return, however

 

[bama alum]

It hurts deep down inside to the barn ranked so low.

 

[SoCalPatrick]

1. Alabama

Even with the loss of quarterback Mac Jones, running back Najee Harris and receiver DeVonta Smith, coach Nick Saban’s team has all of the pieces to win it all again in 2021. New quarterback Bryce Young is primed for a breakout year, and the backfield has plenty of options to take over for Harris. John Metchie III seems likely to assume the go-to role at receiver, but contributions from unproven (but talented) players are needed to give Young a full deck of options. The line is losing a couple of key cogs, including left tackle Alex Leatherwood. The defense will also lose a couple of major contributors, but this unit has the potential to be better in 2021, especially if linebacker Will Anderson continues to develop into one of the nation’s top pass rushers.

The Alabama Crimson Tide just capped a remarkable 2020 season with a 52-24 victory over Ohio State in the College Football Playoff National Championship on Monday night down in South Florida. Head coach Nick Saban has now won seven career national championships, including six with the Crimson Tide. It was arguably the best team Saban has ever coached, and given the 13-game schedule of all Power 5 opponents, it wouldn't be hyperbolic to throw this year's Alabama squad into the debate of the best in the history of the sport. And though the confetti is still sitting on the Hard Rock Stadium turf, we're prepared to turn the page.

Despite losing several high-profile members of its championship squad, Alabama isn't likely to fall far in the 2021 preseason rankings — if at all. In fact, the Tide check in at — you guessed it — No. 1 in Athlon Sports' Way-Too-Early Top 25 rankings. We don't yet know exactly which Alabama players will opt to enter the 2021 NFL Draft, either as seniors eligible to return to college for the extra season of eligibility offered to all FBS players this year, or as draft-eligible juniors. However, we can make our best guesses, and we also have a good idea of the discussions that will surround the team this offseason.

Three Offseason Storylines to Watch

1. Replacing offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian

Coordinator turnover isn't new to Nick Saban at Alabama. In fact, Saban has had seven offensive coordinators since he became head coach of the Crimson Tide. He's hired plenty of defensive coordinators in recent years as well (including three since Kirby Smart was hired at Georgia). However, none of the previous play-callers were as successful as Sarkisian.

After LSU ran roughshod through college football in 2019, many called the Tigers the best offensive team in history. It's a fair position. It's also fair to say Sarkisian's 2019 Alabama offense was at least the second-best of the modern era — and the Tide even averaged more points per drive that season (4.12, adjusted for non-garbage possessions against FBS competition by Brian Fremeau) than LSU (4.10). But entering the national title game against Ohio State, the Crimson Tide had averaged 4.34 points per possession in 2021, which is the best on record since at least 2007, doing so against an all-SEC regular-season schedule, as well as Florida and Notre Dame in the conference championship game and playoff semifinal, respectively. Alabama also entered the game against Ohio State with a 54.5 percent Success Rate, which was the highest of the College Football Playoff era, using stats versus FBS opponents, adjusted for garbage time and developed by Parker Fleming at cfb-graphs.com.

We don't have the final 2020 numbers in time for publishing here, but it's safe to say Sark's 2019 and 2020 Alabama offenses were two of the best ever in the history of the sport. The 52-point performance in which his play-calling carved up Ohio State in the title game was a fitting send-off.

Talent remains, but the best offensive coordinator in Alabama history will be the head coach at Texas in 2021. A pregame report from Bruce Feldman of The Athletic named former Houston Texans and Penn State head coach Bill O'Brien as Sark's successor. A former Power 5 head coach whose NFL career came to a sudden end? It worked out last time.

2. The overhaul of offensive personnel

There are obvious reasons to expect Alabama will be back in the mix to win the national title in 2021. In addition to Saban being arguably the greatest head coach in college football history, the Crimson Tide will once again rank at or near the top of most talent metrics because of the program's elite recruiting performances in years past. It's also a small point, but valid: Saban has shown a willingness to dip into the transfer portal when necessary, and the portal is more active than ever entering 2021.

Nevertheless, the sheer number of holes Saban will likely be forced to fill — including roughly 98 percent of the team's passing yardage, more than 60 percent of rushing production, and more than half its receiving yardage — is a major factor. Throw in the likelihood at least three offensive line starters (and potentially four if junior Emil Ekiyor Jr. jumps to the NFL early) are expected to move on from the reigning Joe Moore Award-winning unit, and Alabama may welcome back as few as three offensive players who started against Ohio State.

Najee Harris is special, but the running back position should be in good hands. Brian Robinson Jr. is expected to take over as the primary ball carrier (though there is an outside shot Robinson, a senior, could turn down the extra year of eligibility and opt for the draft instead) with Jase McClellan, Trey Sanders and Roydell Williams providing excellent depth. The offensive line also is likely to be able to replenish its ranks given the average 247Sports Composite rating of scholarship linemen expected to return (.9206) is better than all but three complete 2020 FBS offensive line units (Georgia, Ohio State and Notre Dame). Saban also signed two 5-star tackles and three 4-star interior linemen in the most recent recruiting class, which is currently ranked No. 1 by 247Sports. The return of offensive line coach Kyle Flood (who is reportedly a hot name in assistant coaching searches), would certainly help the transition.

But most importantly, Alabama is set to lose the vast majority of its production in the passing game. Quarterback Mac Jones blossomed into a potential first-round pick because of his intelligence, anticipation and accuracy, but the former 3-star recruit is set to be replaced by five-star rising sophomore Bryce Young — the No. 1 overall player in the 2020 recruiting class, according to 247Sports. Not much of a downgrade, at least on paper. But Alabama may have a more difficult time replacing the Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith — a player so dominant he became the first receiver to win the honor in nearly three decades — and probably Jaylen Waddle, who some pro talent evaluators prefer in terms of overall talent. John Metchie III stepped up in a big way, Slade Bolden has experience, and Jahleel Billingsley is uniquely athletic for a tight end who should have an expanded role, but the Crimson Tide will rely on a lot of new faces in the passing game.

3. Time to lean on defense again?

Saban is a defensive-minded head coach, with a track record of great success on that side of the football. However, his teams have leaned on more offense during the last few years, and especially for the national championship run this season. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide, which led the country in scoring defense in 2017 and 2016 and finished second in 2015, has finished no higher than 12th since. With the turnover on offense, both in terms of coaching staff and personnel, and a more veteran group of defenders expected to return to Tuscaloosa in 2021, might we see the pendulum shift back?

Dylan Moses is the only senior full-time starter on the Alabama defense, though he’s likely to be joined in the NFL draft by All-American cornerback Patrick Surtain II and defensive lineman Christian Baramore, who despite barely cracking the starting lineup until his redshirt sophomore season could also be a first-round pick this spring. Christopher Allen, Josh Jobe and Phidarian Mathis also were all highly productive as juniors and could test the professional waters as well. Yet, even if all six leave Tuscaloosa with eligibility remaining, Alabama will have a more experienced defensive unit than its offensive counterpart. And if a few of those big names come back, the Crimson Tide might enter 2021 with the best collection of defensive players in the country.

It starts at linebacker, where even without Allen, pass rusher Will Anderson became one of the most disruptive players in the country as a true freshman and Christian Harris built upon his own excellent 2019 freshman season with an under-the-radar sophomore campaign that performed incredibly well in many analytical categories, including an FBS-best 16.0 Pass Rushing Productivity rating among players with 100 or more pass rush snaps entering the national title game, according to PFF.

On the defensive line, LaBryan Ray was hobbled by injuries all season, but when healthy he is a starter and potential All-SEC performer. D.J. Dale doesn't fill up the stat sheet, but he will enter his junior season as a two-year starter at nose guard. Justin Eboigbe, Byron Young and Tim Smith might be the best set of backups in the country. If Mathis returns, Alabama could have the best defensive line in the nation. Surtain seems like a lock to enter the draft but it's possible the Tide can bring back up to three starters (four if we consider the nickel package the true starting lineup) in the secondary.

Once the confetti is swept away and the dust settles in terms of NFL draft decisions, transfer portal entries and exits, and February's traditional National Signing Day cements the Crimson Tide's ninth No. 1 ranked recruiting class since 2011 and second in three cycles, it's likely Alabama will have the most talented defense — if not the most talented roster as a whole — in college football in 2021. Therefore, it would be silly to expect anything other than another run at the national championship.

Alabama Football: Can the Crimson Tide Repeat as National Champions in 2021?

The Alabama Crimson Tide just capped a remarkable 2020 season with a 52-24 victory over Ohio State in the College Football Playoff National Championship on

athlonsports.com

 

[50+yeartidefan]

In regards in writeup

#5 Tennessee
"Linebacker Henry To'to' is back"

publication needs to do updates before publishing

really hard to think Bama can negotiate this schedule with so many new pieces in place
Nice to be so highly thought of but really....
New skill players and so many new coaches and away games at Florida and AnM.

 

[TerryP]

really hard to think Bama can negotiate this schedule with so many new pieces in place
Nice to be so highly thought of but really....
New skill players and so many new coaches and away games at Florida and AnM.

You might want to spend a little time looking over the rosters. If you start looking at returning offensive production the gap isn't that great at all. Florida, as example, lost Trask, Pitts, Toney, and Grimes. A&M's leading receiver last season caught as many passes as Metchie (6.) All three schools starting new quarterbacks.

Does negotiate mean undefeated? Or, does it mean making it to ATL?

(Then again, maybe Jimbo's comment about kicking Saban's ass really got under your skin? )

 

[50+yeartidefan]

You might want to spend a little time looking over the rosters. If you start looking at returning offensive production the gap isn't that great at all. Florida, as example, lost Trask, Pitts, Toney, and Grimes. A&M's leading receiver last season caught as many passes as Metchie (6.) All three schools starting new quarterbacks.

Does negotiate mean undefeated? Or, does it mean making it to ATL?

(Then again, maybe Jimbo's comment about kicking Saban's ass really got under your skin? )

well...jimbo was talking to his money pit...no big deal...fire them up...check books come out.... I understand that....
Unlike coach O after beatingbama in 19....he was just bellowing like a cow..after a 1 in 8 time ....

i was more thinking....its a tough season with a lot of new parts...players and coaches... negotiating means more being bama level successful of recent that we expect....you know....
bama has unbelievable talent...replaced good coaches with good coaches...
We had a damn good team that couldn’t negotiate the season with our expected success in 19...

Injuries....karma...what ever you wanna call that at AU....voodoo maybe...

getting to atlanta would be negotiating the season...even with a loss somewhere... getting to playoffs would be a successful season...winning playoffs would be incredible...

my levels

 

[JoseyWalesTheOutlaw]

Lone Waite has Bama at 11-1 while Ten Bears and I have them at 10-2.

I got to see Young play against someone that is somebody. If he is pretty good then Bama has a chance. Miami might not be the greatest team but drawing them in game one will tell us about Young.

 

[TerryP]

Miami might not be the greatest team but drawing them in game one will tell us about Young.

They were in the bottom third in the nation last season on rush defense. They lost both defensive ends. Who knows what kind of game plan they have for the 'Canes but it wouldn't surprise me to see 225+ on the ground.

I got to see Young play against someone that is somebody.

Oh ye of little faith.

 

[We All Bleed Crimson]

I will be interested to see what kind of offense we wll be running. I seriously doubt that we'll be able to just name the score again this season.
I don't, however, think we'll be bad by any stretch on offense.
I think our D is going to have to be significantly improved to make up a difference on the other side of the ball. The Ole Miss game will be a big deal because of their offense. I am not, at this point, convinced that we can get in a track meet with them like last year.
I still believe we'll have a very good year, just how good remains to be seen.
ROLL TIDE everyone!!!

 

[JoseyWalesTheOutlaw]

They were in the bottom third in the nation last season on rush defense. They lost both defensive ends. Who knows what kind of game plan they have for the 'Canes but it wouldn't surprise me to see 225+ on the ground.


Oh ye of little faith.

Well Nick did fix the punter situation.....I think

 

[TerryP]

I will be interested to see what kind of offense we wll be running. I seriously doubt that we'll be able to just name the score again this season.
I don't, however, think we'll be bad by any stretch on offense

Over 40 per game.

They'll be running a two tight end set which is going to look a lot like the old power-T.

The addition of Jameson Williams, with a one tight end set, give them the same type threats we've seen: speed, hands, and slot (Williams, Metchie, Slade.)

A little side note: It's not well known that CBB is as hard of a worker as CNS: hours, attention to detail, etc.. I have as much faith here as I had in Kiffin and Sark.

I think our D is going to have to be significantly improved to make up a difference on the other side of the ball.

Experience. It has those benefits.

 

[mando]

It is more of a stretch to think Bama will only be good than it is to think they will be very good to great. This is basically the way it has been at Bama year after year with Saban in T-town.