BAMANEWSBOT
Staff
From Tidesports.com
So what does losing the SEC game mean? When it comes to the league standings, not playing the game probably hurts Alabama more than it helped. Now at 14-12 in SEC play, Alabama could have played the game on Sunday at LSU and lost without changing the scenario it needs to win SEC West crown. Alabama needs a sweep of Mississippi State this weekend, it needs Ole Miss to be swept at Texas A&M and needs LSU to lose one game at Auburn to win the SEC West title and pick up the No. 2 seed in the SEC Tournament.
If Alabama had beat LSU in a third game, it would just need a sweep and Texas A&M to win the series over Ole Miss to win the West. Also, taking two of three from Mississippi State would have meant Alabama passed the Bulldogs in the SEC West standings. Without that third game and potential win, Alabama now needs a sweep of MSU to pass the Bulldogs in the West.
Outside of the standings, however, getting a split in Baton Rouge - where LSU was 27-4-1 this year entering the series - is a positive and can only help national perception when it comes to earning a spot as an NCAA Regional host. Alabama also played well in both games, momentum that could carry into the final weekend and the SEC Tournament.
.....
SEC Tournament scenarios
Here is what we know about Alabama's situation when it comes to seeding in the SEC Tournament:
So what does losing the SEC game mean? When it comes to the league standings, not playing the game probably hurts Alabama more than it helped. Now at 14-12 in SEC play, Alabama could have played the game on Sunday at LSU and lost without changing the scenario it needs to win SEC West crown. Alabama needs a sweep of Mississippi State this weekend, it needs Ole Miss to be swept at Texas A&M and needs LSU to lose one game at Auburn to win the SEC West title and pick up the No. 2 seed in the SEC Tournament.
If Alabama had beat LSU in a third game, it would just need a sweep and Texas A&M to win the series over Ole Miss to win the West. Also, taking two of three from Mississippi State would have meant Alabama passed the Bulldogs in the SEC West standings. Without that third game and potential win, Alabama now needs a sweep of MSU to pass the Bulldogs in the West.
Outside of the standings, however, getting a split in Baton Rouge - where LSU was 27-4-1 this year entering the series - is a positive and can only help national perception when it comes to earning a spot as an NCAA Regional host. Alabama also played well in both games, momentum that could carry into the final weekend and the SEC Tournament.
.....
SEC Tournament scenarios
Here is what we know about Alabama's situation when it comes to seeding in the SEC Tournament:
- If the SEC Tournament started today, Alabama would be the No. 7 seed and play the No. 10 seed during the first (single-elimination) round of the SECT. The top four seeds get a first-round bye.
- Alabama can still finish as high as the No. 2 seed in the SEC Tournament by winning the SEC West. Finishing as the No. 4 seed, which would also get a bye in the first round, is still in play as well. However, for either scenario, Alabama must sweep Mississippi State this weekend. Even if Alabama wins two out of three games this weekend, there is no scenario in which Ole Miss, Florida, Mississippi State and EITHER So. Carolina or Vanderbilt don't finish ahead of the Crimson Tide.
- The only way for Alabama to still win the SEC West would be to 1) Sweep Mississippi State, 2) Have Texas A&M sweep Ole Miss in College Station and 3) Have LSU lose at least one game at Auburn. Unlikely, but still technically in play.
- To finish as the No. 4 seed, Alabama would need to sweep Mississippi State and LSU would need to lose at least one game at Auburn. Since South Carolina and Vanderbilt play each other, and assuming they get all three games in this weekend, whoever loses the series would fall 1/2 game behind Alabama in the race for the No. 4 seed.
- While the worst-case scenario is for Alabama to finish as the No. 10 seed, by taking two of three games against MSU this weekend, by my count, Alabama could finish no worse than No. 7 no matter what happens. Even if Arkansas swept Missouri, Alabama would remain ahead of them due to matching SEC wins but having one less loss.
Obviously there's a lot in play outside of the SEC Tournament - hosting a regional, namely - but where Alabama finishes, and how it does in the SEC Tournament, will play a major role in its resume as an NCAA host.
