M
Michael Casagrande |
Which teams are most dangerous for Alabama in the 2017 football season?
Assessing threat each Alabama foe poses to playoff run
Three years into the playoff era, Alabama remains the only program to make all three versions. Sustaining that streak will face a few more hurdles again this fall in Nick Saban’s 11th Crimson Tide season.
To handicap the chances of another playoff run, we’ll assess the threat each of Alabama’s 12 regular-season opponents pose. It’s important to note this is not necessarily the threat for the Tide to simply lose, but rather how it would impact the postseason dynamic.
By Michael Casagrande, AL.com
Sept. 2: Florida State
The Seminoles are arguably the best team Alabama will face all season. This season-opener in Atlanta could very well be a No. 1 vs. No. 2 showdown riding the hype train all the way into the Georgia Dome’s flashy offspring. A star returning quarterback in Deondre Francois and All-American-caliber safety Derwin James offer a taste of the talent level Alabama will face Labor Day weekend. A loss here would certainly change the road map for the next 11 or 12 games, but wouldn’t disqualify either team. Because of that, it isn’t the most dangerous game on the schedule even if the opponent is superior to those remaining.
Threat level: 8
Sept. 9: Fresno State
The home opener offers a chance to dial things back a little. The Mountain West school is coming off a 1-11 season and a coaching change that brought Jeff Tedford (Cal’s coach from 2002-12) to his alma mater. This would have been a solid tune-up for FSU, but will settle for a Week 2 opportunity to play some young talent.
Threat level: 2
Sept. 16: Colorado State
The Rams are certainly a step up from Fresno State. They just don’t present a danger to the playoff streak. Consecutive 7-6 seasons followed a 10-3 year in Jim McElwain’s final season in 2014. One or both of the teams scored 40-plus in the final four games of last season. That includes a 61-50 loss to Idaho in the bowl game. That score isn’t likely in Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Threat level: 3
Sept. 23: at Vanderbilt
A surprising bowl season in 2016 included upsets of both Georgia and Tennessee. The Commodores had the No. 6 total defense in the SEC after rough seasons of 3-9 and 4-8 in Derek Mason’s first two seasons. The problem is All-American linebacker Zach Cunningham is gone. Vanderbilt won’t be the seventh best team in the SEC East since Missouri is there and it won’t have much of a shot of upsetting the Tide in its trip to Nashville. Extra ½ point on the treat meter since it’s technically Alabama’s first true road game.
Threat level: 3.5
Sept. 30: Ole Miss
The trend line isn’t favorable for the Rebels. The NCAA cloud is dark and almost all of their offensive weapons from previous seasons are gone. Thinking logically, this Bryant-Denny game doesn’t figure to be so scary but Ole Miss has been that team that creates the chaos necessary for Alabama to lose. After two straight upsets, the Rebels almost did it again last year. Given all that’s going on, another Hugh Freeze stunner would be much more damaging than the losses in 2014 and 2015.
Threat level: 7
Oct. 7: at Texas A&M
Outside of the 2014 Alabama blowout (59-0), Texas A&M has been at least a pesky team that the Tide had to put away late. The Aggies are again looking for a new quarterback, which if the 2012 game proved, is the key for A&M upsetting Alabama. Three straight 8-5 seasons with fast starts and late struggles have Kevin Sumlin on uncomfortable footing. Having the Tide in College Station adds a little to the danger, though Saban’s teams won the last two trips there in 2013 and ’15.
Threat level: 6
Oct. 14: Arkansas
The Razorbacks have been a nag to Alabama the last three seasons. It held a second-half lead in the last trip to Tuscaloosa and threw for 400 yards in last year’s 49-30 Tide shootout win. QB Austin Allen is back, though his top two receivers and leading rusher Rawleigh Williams are gone.
Threat level: 6
Oct. 21: Tennessee
Coming off the historically lopsided 49-10 Alabama win in Knoxville, the Vols aren’t necessarily on the trajectory to end this series losing streak. QB Joshua Dobbs, RB Alvin Kamara and top receiver Josh Malone are gone. A good chunk of the defense returns even if star end Derek Barnett is in the NFL. The 10-year string of Alabama wins is certainly a motivating factor, but can it overcome the others? If so, a loss would be pretty damaging if the Vols are a four- or five-loss team.
Threat level: 7
Nov. 4: LSU
Speaking of rivals with losing streaks to Alabama, LSU will make the trip back to Tuscaloosa after the bye week. It hasn’t won since visiting in 2011 despite a few close calls. The Tiger defense was up to the challenge in last year’s 10-0 Alabama win, but the offense never really threatened. Who knows where they’ll be by the first week of November, though a new offensive philosophy from first-year coordinator Matt Canada has to be an upgrade over the last few that played into Alabama’s strengths. Late-season losses don’t bode well.
Threat level: 8.5
Nov. 11: at Mississippi State
The 51-3 loss at Alabama wasn’t the best argument for the Bulldogs’ 2016 progress. It’ll be interesting to see how much of a jump Nick Fitzgerald makes in his second year. The Tide typically plays ugly against MSU, though the last few wins have been rather convincing. It all depends on where the Bulldogs find themselves by mid-November, but this is a team capable of pulling something in its cowbell vortex.
Threat level: 7.5
Nov. 18: Mercer
The program was dormant 72 years until 2013. That’s about all that needs to be said.
Threat level: 0
Nov. 25: at Auburn
This is probably the hardest to project because of the unknowns involved. New quarterback Jarrett Stidham is the tailwind for preseason expectations. Transfer quarterbacks led the Tigers to their last two national title game appearances with wins over Alabama. He’ll have time to get acquainted to the new conference by the last game of the regular season. A good chunk of Auburn’s improved defense is also back and the fact this one is being played in Jordan-Hare Stadium makes this the most dangerous proposition if we’re assessing threats in July.
Threat level: 9
Continue reading...
Assessing threat each Alabama foe poses to playoff run
Three years into the playoff era, Alabama remains the only program to make all three versions. Sustaining that streak will face a few more hurdles again this fall in Nick Saban’s 11th Crimson Tide season.
To handicap the chances of another playoff run, we’ll assess the threat each of Alabama’s 12 regular-season opponents pose. It’s important to note this is not necessarily the threat for the Tide to simply lose, but rather how it would impact the postseason dynamic.
By Michael Casagrande, AL.com
Sept. 2: Florida State
The Seminoles are arguably the best team Alabama will face all season. This season-opener in Atlanta could very well be a No. 1 vs. No. 2 showdown riding the hype train all the way into the Georgia Dome’s flashy offspring. A star returning quarterback in Deondre Francois and All-American-caliber safety Derwin James offer a taste of the talent level Alabama will face Labor Day weekend. A loss here would certainly change the road map for the next 11 or 12 games, but wouldn’t disqualify either team. Because of that, it isn’t the most dangerous game on the schedule even if the opponent is superior to those remaining.
Threat level: 8
Sept. 9: Fresno State
The home opener offers a chance to dial things back a little. The Mountain West school is coming off a 1-11 season and a coaching change that brought Jeff Tedford (Cal’s coach from 2002-12) to his alma mater. This would have been a solid tune-up for FSU, but will settle for a Week 2 opportunity to play some young talent.
Threat level: 2
Sept. 16: Colorado State
The Rams are certainly a step up from Fresno State. They just don’t present a danger to the playoff streak. Consecutive 7-6 seasons followed a 10-3 year in Jim McElwain’s final season in 2014. One or both of the teams scored 40-plus in the final four games of last season. That includes a 61-50 loss to Idaho in the bowl game. That score isn’t likely in Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Threat level: 3
Sept. 23: at Vanderbilt
A surprising bowl season in 2016 included upsets of both Georgia and Tennessee. The Commodores had the No. 6 total defense in the SEC after rough seasons of 3-9 and 4-8 in Derek Mason’s first two seasons. The problem is All-American linebacker Zach Cunningham is gone. Vanderbilt won’t be the seventh best team in the SEC East since Missouri is there and it won’t have much of a shot of upsetting the Tide in its trip to Nashville. Extra ½ point on the treat meter since it’s technically Alabama’s first true road game.
Threat level: 3.5
Sept. 30: Ole Miss
The trend line isn’t favorable for the Rebels. The NCAA cloud is dark and almost all of their offensive weapons from previous seasons are gone. Thinking logically, this Bryant-Denny game doesn’t figure to be so scary but Ole Miss has been that team that creates the chaos necessary for Alabama to lose. After two straight upsets, the Rebels almost did it again last year. Given all that’s going on, another Hugh Freeze stunner would be much more damaging than the losses in 2014 and 2015.
Threat level: 7
Oct. 7: at Texas A&M
Outside of the 2014 Alabama blowout (59-0), Texas A&M has been at least a pesky team that the Tide had to put away late. The Aggies are again looking for a new quarterback, which if the 2012 game proved, is the key for A&M upsetting Alabama. Three straight 8-5 seasons with fast starts and late struggles have Kevin Sumlin on uncomfortable footing. Having the Tide in College Station adds a little to the danger, though Saban’s teams won the last two trips there in 2013 and ’15.
Threat level: 6
Oct. 14: Arkansas
The Razorbacks have been a nag to Alabama the last three seasons. It held a second-half lead in the last trip to Tuscaloosa and threw for 400 yards in last year’s 49-30 Tide shootout win. QB Austin Allen is back, though his top two receivers and leading rusher Rawleigh Williams are gone.
Threat level: 6
Oct. 21: Tennessee
Coming off the historically lopsided 49-10 Alabama win in Knoxville, the Vols aren’t necessarily on the trajectory to end this series losing streak. QB Joshua Dobbs, RB Alvin Kamara and top receiver Josh Malone are gone. A good chunk of the defense returns even if star end Derek Barnett is in the NFL. The 10-year string of Alabama wins is certainly a motivating factor, but can it overcome the others? If so, a loss would be pretty damaging if the Vols are a four- or five-loss team.
Threat level: 7
Nov. 4: LSU
Speaking of rivals with losing streaks to Alabama, LSU will make the trip back to Tuscaloosa after the bye week. It hasn’t won since visiting in 2011 despite a few close calls. The Tiger defense was up to the challenge in last year’s 10-0 Alabama win, but the offense never really threatened. Who knows where they’ll be by the first week of November, though a new offensive philosophy from first-year coordinator Matt Canada has to be an upgrade over the last few that played into Alabama’s strengths. Late-season losses don’t bode well.
Threat level: 8.5
Nov. 11: at Mississippi State
The 51-3 loss at Alabama wasn’t the best argument for the Bulldogs’ 2016 progress. It’ll be interesting to see how much of a jump Nick Fitzgerald makes in his second year. The Tide typically plays ugly against MSU, though the last few wins have been rather convincing. It all depends on where the Bulldogs find themselves by mid-November, but this is a team capable of pulling something in its cowbell vortex.
Threat level: 7.5
Nov. 18: Mercer
The program was dormant 72 years until 2013. That’s about all that needs to be said.
Threat level: 0
Nov. 25: at Auburn
This is probably the hardest to project because of the unknowns involved. New quarterback Jarrett Stidham is the tailwind for preseason expectations. Transfer quarterbacks led the Tigers to their last two national title game appearances with wins over Alabama. He’ll have time to get acquainted to the new conference by the last game of the regular season. A good chunk of Auburn’s improved defense is also back and the fact this one is being played in Jordan-Hare Stadium makes this the most dangerous proposition if we’re assessing threats in July.
Threat level: 9
Continue reading...
