🏈 Are the negotiations and alleged holdouts with carriers over the SEC Network orchestrated?

[TerryP]

Over the last few weeks I've seen a dozen or more people post on various forums that they've talked to Direct TV and were told DTV was going to carry the SECN and an announcement was coming in July.

Today there's an article on FoxSports stating that Comcast and the SECN are finalizing details and there should be an announcement in the next couple of weeks.

That started me thinking (I'll pause for a second so you can shudder...)


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What are the chances Mike Slive has been waiting, along with these other carriers, for the SEC Media Days to make an official announcement that all of these providers—supposedly holding out and in negotiations—are now on board and will carry the network?

The more I think about that, the more it makes sense to me. When you consider the venue, and couple that with the 1000+ media reporters that will be in Birmingham, could you ask for a better scenario for such an announcement?

 

[BAMANEWSBOT]

The nation's largest cable company should have the SEC Network as part of its programming when the Southeastern Conference's sports channel debuts on Aug. 14.

Continue reading...

 

[TheChief]

I think the holdout has the ear markings of a merger. Possibly between Time Warner and Comcast? Currently, the failure to announce such a partnership in a timely manner is costing Comcast households. This faulty business dealing points to something other than negligence. Maybe a small devaluation and certainly the retention of capital that the company (Comcast) didn't want expend and have to recoup.

That's my thought on it.

I know that I am gone from Comcast if fall arrives without a package that includes the SEC Network.

 

[planomateo]

Guess we'll find out in a few weeks. Something tells me they are going to drag this out as long as possible (hope I'm wrong).

 

[TerryP]

I think the holdout has the ear markings of a merger. Possibly between Time Warner and Comcast? Currently, the failure to announce such a partnership in a timely manner is costing Comcast households. This faulty business dealing points to something other than negligence. Maybe a small devaluation and certainly the retention of capital that the company (Comcast) didn't want expend and have to recoup.

That's my thought on it.

I know that I am gone from Comcast if fall arrives without a package that includes the SEC Network.

I don't see this the same way.

By assuming the holdout has to do with a merger it would mean they (Comcast / TWC) are holding out based on something that might, or might not, happen. What happens if TWC holds out and then the merge isn't approved (a scenario I see likely as happening?) Then TWC not only loses households but their stockholders also see their market price plummet. That's certainly not a sound business plan.

Your comment at the end supports part of my reasoning. People are planning on switching IF their provider doesn't carry the network. But, we're still over a month away.

It's just a thought I had on the delay having a marketing angle by the SECN and the carriers. I very well could be wrong. We'll know in just a couple of weeks if we see a few carriers make announcements at the same time we're in the midst of SEC Media Days.

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FWIW, I think there's a greater chance we see ATT merge with DTV than Comcast acquiring TWC. DTV doesn't offer Internet access or phone services. Both Comcast and TWC offer the same product. The former actually offers a benefit to the DTV customer base because their product is improved. The later is simply the same company acquiring a larger subscription base.

 

[TerryP]

Guess we'll find out in a few weeks. Something tells me they are going to drag this out as long as possible (hope I'm wrong).

Hey Matt, have you noticed the marketing DISH is doing right now with announcements coming from the SECN? Here's one example.

Yesterday there was a tweet sent out by one of the ESPN employees on a new graphic for the SECN. Click on the timeline of the tweet. You'll see where DISH retweets the graphic and includes a sales pitch.

 

[TheChief]

I think it's more likely that Time Warner acquires Comcast, not the other way around. Then, there would have to be a split of some sort. That's why this smells like more like a merger than a tease. I guess we'll see what happens in the end.

 

[planomateo]

@TheChief - I could be missing what you are saying here. You do know that Comcast and Time Warner announced they were merging back in Feb 2014.

Time Warner doesn't have the bankroll to acquire Comcast. Comcast is worth twice as much as Time Warner, has almost twice as many customers 21M vs 11M, and has three times the revenue ($65B vs $22B).

Here is a footprint map from Dec 2012. Comcast based on this map would have to get the SECN. Houston alone is a deal-breaker (think TAMU).

 

[TerryP]

I think it's more likely that Time Warner acquires Comcast, not the other way around. Then, there would have to be a split of some sort. That's why this smells like more like a merger than a tease. I guess we'll see what happens in the end.

What leads you to believe that?

You've confused me here. Comcast has already won the bidding war for TWC. At a time, there was a competition between Charter and Comcast for TWC, but TWC hasn't sought to buy Comcast. Heck, I'd wonder if they have the financial reserves to do so consider Comcast has bought all of GE's stake in Universal over the last three years.

 

[TerryP]

@planomateo Good point about Houston. :notworthy

 

[planomateo]

Via the Comcast investors page. Below is the link to the Comcast merger presentation, some interesting data in it. You get a quick idea of why the merger is happening on page 6 (screenshot below), as they gain the #1, #2, & #5 DMA's (MYC, LA, DFW) and a lot of smaller ones.

http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...4e5c7ea4ff9/Comcast Investor Presentation.pdf

They will now have access to 19 of the top 20 DMA markets (DMA = Designated Market Areas)...they won't have access to Phoenix (yet).

 

[TerryP]

One area they don't have a presence in yet is the Charlotte area. That' ironic to me considering it'll be the home to the SECN.

Neither has a presence in Birmingham. If you recall, it had the largest ratings of any city last year when it came to watching CFB. Charter would be a fool to alienate that subscription base.

Birmingham folks—Cablevision is the other major provider in B-ham, right?

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Just as a side note: If this merger isn't approved and the ACC network launches when its anticipated, look at the major ACC cities Comcast isn't in now.