🏈 Anyone else smell smoke?

[LBS]

Where there's smoke,...

I read an article yesterday which peiced together comments from a handful of coaches as well as Commisioner Slive. The statements all could have been taken out of context, but it was clear what the reporter was getting at, and the quotes from the coaches and Mr. Slive certainly did support that impression -- We're expanding the conference. Link below:
http://www.thestate.com/2010/<WBR>04/28/1264080/saban-sec-ready-<WBR>to-tackle-decisions.html

Now we see 252BAMA posting here that Bama and Georgia Tech have cancelled their series with no reason cited. (Thanks 252) Link below:
http://www.ajc.com/sports/georgia-te...ee-509889.html

Interesting that within the first article GT was the single program hinted at being the most likely to jump ship. If this were the plan, and if there were such a series scheduled with Bama (one that might cause trouble with future conference integration), this is exactly what an announcement would look like if they had to make that change.

Also interesting is that the first article stated that there was a belief (broad & general with no sources named) that College Football-wide we would see 4 (and only 4) SUPER conferences, and specifically named the SEC, Big10, ACC and PAC-10. Question, with all these teams grabbing new T.V. markets (and adding new markets was what was said to be driving this) what does this imply will be happening with the Big12? LBS' thoughts are that it supports the idea that the SEC does go after Texas and Texas A&M, and that the Big10 does go after Missouri and perhaps Nebraska.

Thoughts?

 

[jdpas29]

i can see the SEC picking up a few new teams and maybe the same in some of the other conferences, but i think it will be a long time before there is a consolidation of the conferences themselves.

i'm pulling for southern miss, clempsen, la tech and maybe one of the decent small florida teams to join the SEC if they expand it. but really i'm happy with the conference just as it is.

 

[LBS]

i can see the SEC picking up a few new teams and maybe the same in some of the other conferences, but i think it will be a long time before there is a consolidation of the conferences themselves.

i'm pulling for southern miss, clempsen, la tech and maybe one of the decent small florida teams to join the SEC if they expand it. but really i'm happy with the conference just as it is.

I think you're off base. First, "sooner" rather than "much later" seems to be the sentiment. Further, its not the SEC that is driving the when. The SEC's action will be to move to keep our position at top dog. It is the Big 10 and the Pac 10 who are hurting because they don't have the 12 teams needed for a Championship Game. "Much later" does not benefit those conferences.

Second, our move will be to grow our stake in College Football. Growth means adding prestige and adding new revenue streams. New revenue streams means adding significant television markets. Southern Miss brings nothing to the table because we own that tiny market anyway. La Tech is the same case. A small school in Florida, although in a great market, does not make a new and desirable viewing product. Who in Florida wants to watch Florida Atlantic play Ole Miss? Clemson is much more feasible because it is a respectable program all around, it would lock down the entire state of South Carolina for the SEC while driving a wedge into the ACC, and it offers a natural rivalry as a TV product.

If you think only in terms of TV market expansion, the juicy targets are Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami, South Florida, Texas, and Texas A&M. (LBS' personal campaign would include Oklahoma, though not the biggest of markets, it could draw nationally to offset that.)

 

[BamaPride]

I think you're off base. First, "sooner" rather than "much later" seems to be the sentiment. Further, its not the SEC that is driving the when. The SEC's action will be to move to keep our position at top dog. It is the Big 10 and the Pac 10 who are hurting because they don't have the 12 teams needed for a Championship Game. "Much later" does not benefit those conferences.

Second, our move will be to grow our stake in College Football. Growth means adding prestige and adding new revenue streams. New revenue streams means adding significant television markets. Southern Miss brings nothing to the table because we own that tiny market anyway. La Tech is the same case. A small school in Florida, although in a great market, does not make a new and desirable viewing product. Who in Florida wants to watch Florida Atlantic play Ole Miss? Clemson is much more feasible because it is a respectable program all around, it would lock down the entire state of South Carolina for the SEC while driving a wedge into the ACC, and it offers a natural rivalry as a TV product.

If you think only in terms of TV market expansion, the juicy targets are Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami, South Florida, Texas, and Texas A&M. (LBS' personal campaign would include Oklahoma, though not the biggest of markets, it could draw nationally to offset that.)

The "Opening Drive" (6-10am on WJOX) had a guy (I believe he was from SI) on the other day that claimed the only teams that would make sense in a market expansion would be Texas and Maryland.... MARYLAND??!! He said that the SEC already had the Florida markets so FSU and Miami wouldn't help much at all.

 

[kc]

That would be interesting if Clemson joined. The rivalry with USCe would be even more intense.

Maryland? I see how with that market wide open....but kinda throws the name South Eastern in question.

 

[252BAMA]

I said in your "Big 10 Expansion Questions" thread that I thought the SEC would move first. If Texas is in play, and it appears that they are, there is no way that the SEC is going to take the risk that the Pac-10 or the little eleven grabs them. Now Texas might decline the invite, but the SEC will not lose them because they are already gone. In fact, I think they are already gone. To the SEC!

 

[LBS]

The "Opening Drive" (6-10am on WJOX) had a guy (I believe he was from SI) on the other day that claimed the only teams that would make sense in a market expansion would be Texas and Maryland.... MARYLAND??!! He said that the SEC already had the Florida markets so FSU and Miami wouldn't help much at all.

MARYLAND??!! I would love to hear his thought process about that. Sure, that might plug into the D.C./Baltimore market, but that completely skips North Carolina and Virginia. Heck, parading an SEC schedule through the Naval Academy in Maryland would do the same thing, and bring a national fan base of Veterans. (BTW, the Naval Academy produces more Engineers than any other school on the planet. How's that for a feather in a conference's cap?)

The Florida market comment is hard for me to believe. Do you see folks in Miami saying "Forget the Hurricane's game, the Gators are playing Kentucky"?

 

[LBS]

Here's an uncomfortable questions; IF the Big10 cherry-picks the Big East leaving it as a basketball conference, and IF the ACC and SEC join the building of Super Conferences, then will we see any current SEC members bolt for other conferences?

 

[psychojoe]

I have heard Arknsas to the Big 12 tossed around,(connected to a Missouri to the Big 10 idea) but I don't see that happening.

 

[LBS]

I have heard Arknsas to the Big 12 tossed around,(connected to a Missouri to the Big 10 idea) but I don't see that happening.

Missouri to the Big 10, I could see happening. Arkansas to the Big 12, I could see that happening too, provided that the Big 12 is not ravaged by the Big 12 and the SEC. If our expansion is to the east, and Arkansas replaces Missouri, I don't think the loss would be huge in that there are some good pick ups to the east. Seriously, would you not put Clemson on the same level as an Arkansas? Well how would the Seminoles, or Hurricanes, or the Yellow Jackets stack up?

 

[psychojoe]

I don't see it from the point of view of why would Arky want to go. The BIG 12 TV contracts are nowhere near as good as the SEC has. Of course with there pass oriented offense and lack of defense they would be a good fit with the other Big 12 schools.

It is interesting to me that the talk I've seen about four super conferences deals the Big 12 out. I'm not sure why the ACC should survive rather than the Big 12.

 

[252BAMA]

I don't see it from the point of view of why would Arky want to go. The BIG 12 TV contracts are nowhere near as good as the SEC has. Of course with there pass oriented offense and lack of defense they would be a good fit with the other Big 12 schools.

It is interesting to me that the talk I've seen about four super conferences deals the Big 12 out. I'm not sure why the ACC should survive rather than the Big 12.

The manner in which the Big 12 shares their TV revenue is their problem.

"Former Big 12 commissioner Kevin Weiberg expressed frustration when he left his job the summer of 2007, saying that the issue could potentially prove to be divisive for the league's growth."

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=3409420

 

[BamaDelta]

I'm going to pretend I didn't read any of this, and maybe it will go away.anic: I don't like any of it.

 

[alagator]

I just do not see Georgia Tech making a meaningful contribution to the revenue generation of an expanded SEC.

As I have stated in the past, as is pretty much basic math, any new team added to the league will have to generate at least $17MM-to-$18MM in marginal revenue to the total league gross revenues. Where would Georgia Tech generate such revenues to the league? They would not influence the numbers in the Atlanta TV market, which is a UGa dominated market. And outside Atlanta, Tech is a non-factor on television ratings in the state. And I cannot think of any other eastern MSA Tech would add (Charlotte? Raleigh? DC? New York? Philadelphia? - my opinion is no to all). Tech would appear to be an addition just for the sake of adding a new team.

Now, if your question is this change in the scheduling reflects a broader conference realignment that does not involve Tech moving to the SEC but just general dramatic changes in the composition of both leagues you might have a point.

Texas and aTm from the west and two of Miami, North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia Tech from the east would be ideal. I just do not see enough marginal dollars generated by adding teams that does not include at least two of Texas, aTm, UNC, and Duke. If the two Texas schools are not part of the expansion, just about all the new monies will have to be found in basketball and not football - something the two North Carolina schools would easily bring to the table.

 

[CrimsonPirate]

I think you're off base. First, "sooner" rather than "much later" seems to be the sentiment. Further, its not the SEC that is driving the when. The SEC's action will be to move to keep our position at top dog. It is the Big 10 and the Pac 10 who are hurting because they don't have the 12 teams needed for a Championship Game. "Much later" does not benefit those conferences.

Second, our move will be to grow our stake in College Football. Growth means adding prestige and adding new revenue streams. New revenue streams means adding significant television markets. Southern Miss brings nothing to the table because we own that tiny market anyway. La Tech is the same case. A small school in Florida, although in a great market, does not make a new and desirable viewing product. Who in Florida wants to watch Florida Atlantic play Ole Miss? Clemson is much more feasible because it is a respectable program all around, it would lock down the entire state of South Carolina for the SEC while driving a wedge into the ACC, and it offers a natural rivalry as a TV product.

If you think only in terms of TV market expansion, the juicy targets are Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami, South Florida, Texas, and Texas A&M. (LBS' personal campaign would include Oklahoma, though not the biggest of markets, it could draw nationally to offset that.)

CBS has Miami, FSU and Ga. Tech.

http://college-football.groups.cbssports.com/mcc/messages/thread/21385137

 

[bamascw]

Money, of course, is the driving force here. I don't think any of us would dispute that.....so which teams bring us (SEC) the most money? How many "Super Conferences" could there be? I just don't see the Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10, ACC or SEC dissolving. I can see the Big East going away. Can we have 5 "Super Conferences"? I guess so, why not?

Does expansion mean the elimination of the Big East? It is a shadow of it's former self since the ACC took the better teams. Who knows what teams will land where but, I guess if we had our pick, surely we would want Texas (and doesn't A&M have to come with them??), I like the Clemson idea. If we can rob the ACC, why not shoot for Miami and or Florida St.? Would it be a good idea to load our conference with such power teams as to almost guarantee that no team will go undefeated??

This all makes my head hurt. :dazed:

 

[AlabamaAubKiller]

We really need to be looking at this issue through crimson colored glasses.

What would be the absolute BEST thing for Bama?
Adding Texas & A&M to the West Div? A&M maybe. but i for one would hate to have to play texas year after year for a shot @ the tittle.
A & M .....maybe. While the horns are the more sexy of the 2.... I like our odds vs Texas A&M on a regular basis.

What would be better IMO is that we Bring in Fla. State to the west, Miami to the east, & Clemson (as if 1 AU wasn't enough, now we would have 2 :lance

So the best thing fo us, i belive:
Texas A&M to the West
Miami to the East (thus forcing the gators to play Fla State & Miami every year.)
Florida State to the West
Clemson to the East (and force AU to play them every year.)

 

[psychojoe]

If you added Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State we would be in the Eastern half and wouldn't see Texas except in the conference championship game.

 

[LBS]

If you added Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State we would be in the Eastern half and wouldn't see Texas except in the conference championship game.

To dogpile onto this point, I say Texas is exactly who needs to come...of those two. Texas is a challenge in the post season, but having them run a full SEC schedule before they get there would change that picture.

Now consider that regardless of how they do that they will be putting money into every team's pocket.

 

[ExiledTidefan]

Something as big as this would have to be done with some major sacrifices. If smaller conferences are going to be raided, only the marquee names would be in demand, so where do the smaller, less successful programs go? The deals would be made where "you're conference gets team x, but you also must take team Y". In the case of what is most likely:

4 super conferences (the now SEC, BIG 10, PAC 10, and BIG 12) being the survivors. With majoy realignments. And I would think Notre Dame winds up somewhere as a result of all of this.

If the SEC expanded to 16 teams, here are my votes for most likely (all hypothetical of course) to join:
-Georgia Tech seems like a given
-Florida State, with strong consultation of Bobby Bowden to support it. And before you say "He's not the coach anymore", just keep in mind his status on that campus as a legend and authority figure.
-Louisville, to capture that part of the mid-west which is basketball oriented. This might swing to the Big 10. But Louisville is too large of an athletic program to leave squandering in the Big East.
-Finally, a Memphis or Tulane or perhaps S. Miss as part of the compromise to round out the conference. Other programs are going to fight over the Houston's and the TCU's of the world, so you'll be forced to take someone that will not contribute much to the bottom line, and might indeed be a net expense.

I just see some programs coming into the fold that are very appealing, and then a couple of programs with less hutzpa joining, so that the Big 12, Big 10, and Pac 10 get what they want.

Boise in the Pac 10 would be the most interesting development, completely re-ordering the way that conference works. Like to also see UTAH join in, and maybe even someone like UTEP or New Mexico.

4 super conferences with 16 teams each, with a playoff system designed so that each conference champion receives a first round bye in a playoff format, with wild cards granted to whatever smaller conferences still remain. So, if the MWC lives on, and TCU is the winner, they would play someone from what's left of the Sun Belt to decide who plays Alabama in the Southern Regional title game!