🏈 another point of view. what do the stats show?

[milliondollarfan19]

I cant wait for this game and the Ute fans to be coming back here trying to explain what went wrong... this is going to be a blow out. What yall cant get through yalls head is that the MWC sucks. I would love to see your top 3 teams come into the SEC and try and go 4-8. I think that even Vandy could beat yall. IMO and i think alot of people around the nation will agree that the SEC is the best conference in the nation. The SEC has 2 NC in the past two years and about to have a 3rd.

Don't worry, we'll come back and take our lumps if we lose. Hell, I'll be the first one to start a "Big_Fan was right" post if the game turns out to be the blowout he is predicting. However, I would hope to receive the same treatment if the game turns out more in Utah's favor. Deal?

Oh, and Vandy? Please... :roll:

P.S. There's some excellent stat work from both Pop and Big_Fan going on here. Keep it up gentlemen, it makes for fantastic reading.

lol ok maybe Vandy was pushing it... but im hoping for a good game but imho not expecting one.. good luck... and youve got a deal if by some chance yall win ill welcome everything you can throw at me for my trash talking...

 

[SkinyUte]

I'm not going to bother debating your stats (there's nothing I could say that would chance anyone's mind.

Yet you immediately do just that.

Sorry, I meant debating his stats with more stats. I don't have the head for it like Big_Fan and Pops do.

 

[AFF]

And why all the talk about WYM and Tenn? Why not Georgia and Hawaii or does that not count?

WY/Tenn is the only actual head-to-head SEC vs. MWC comparison we have, hence the talk about it. I would guess the reason there's not much talk about Georgia/Hawaii is because a) that was last year, and b) Hawaii plays in the WAC (a statistically far weaker conference), not the MWC.

Given Tenn replaced there coach... Seems off to me, but o well.

To be fair, Wyoming announced the firing of their coach before that game too.

Utah has had an incredible achievment this year. If it were easy to go undefeated in ANY conference, more teams would have done it. Does Utah have a chance against Alabama? Well, I haven't seen your team play, but your team is apparently very, very good. The fact that you haven't played in the SEC could actually work to your advantage given the fact that we really haven't seen a team like Utah all year. Sure, we've seen various teams with strengths that are comparable to Utah's. But, I think statistics are fairly meaningless in a matchup like this one - too many apples to oranges. We like to think that SEC football is head an shoulders above the rest of the country. Maybe it is, maybe not. If it is, Utah could be in for a long night. If not, we could be surprised and MAYBE be humbled a little. I doubt it. But, that's why we play the games.

Good luck. Y'all have a right to be proud of a fine year as we are.

 

[Guest]

Part of the difficulty in doing a thorough comparison of MWC teams in a statistically relevant manner, is the lack of quality non-conference opposition. Doing six degree type comparisons with this kind of match-up is iffy at best because you are not just dealing with W/L records, but who THOSE teams lost to, and HOW they lost.

As previously stated, your conference rarely steps out of the kiddie pool. Your nine member conference only produced 4 teams with records above .500 in D1 play. It is difficult to make a comparison based on in-conference opponents, because your bottom feeders are on-par with division 3 non-scholarship teams. Top to bottom, your non-conference opposition was weak, and the only "ranked" teams your conference played were also cupcake conference members (i.e. Houston). In a couple of instances, it is not your fault. Nobody would have expected Michigan to be terrible when you scheduled them.

Here is how your non conference play looked (MWC vs All)

Utah: Best non-conference schedule overall.
Michigan 3-9

Utah beat Michigan 25-23. The troubling thing is, Michigan gave up 35 or more 6 times, yet Utah was held to 25. Michigan was held to less than 23 on eight occasions. You played them in the first game of the season - in a new offense. A win it was, but it was not dominant.

Utah State 3-9

You blew out Utah State. They are an uber-bottom-feeder, the type of team Vandy would toy with. The only reason they are not statistically worse than they were (and they were bad), is the low level of competition they faced on a weekly basis. An 8 game SEC schedule would have been ugly. As it was, they gave up 66 to Oregon, 44 to Nevada, 49 to Boise, and 45 to La Tech.

Weber State 10-4(FCS)

A solid FCS team, but not competitive against FCS teams. Utah beat them 37-21. How did they score 21? How did you give up over 300 yards passing and 356 total yards? Their other FCS foe was Hawaii who held them to fewer points and fewer yards. Maybe not embarrassing, but not a quality win - or dominant performance against a lower division team.

Oregon State 8-4(Best non-conference)

You caught OSU at a good time - coming off of an emotional win over USC at home. Oregon State was a strange team in 2008, losing to Stanford, getting blown out by PSU, and giving up 65 to Oregon...but I will give you credit for a solid 3 point home win.

(14-22)

TCU

Stephen F. Austin 4-8 (FCS)
Not much to say here. 67-7 over a team routinely blown out.

Stanford 5-7
31-14 - beat them about like others...credit for holding them to their lowest point total of the season...but not by much.

SMU 1-11
A win over a very bad team. SMU's lone win was an 11 point margin over Texas State.

Oklahoma 12-1
The game was 28-3 at the half...OU coasted.

(6-18)

BYU

Northern Iowa (FCS)
Win over FCS team...a good FCS team...but an FCS team.

Washington 0-12
Ouch. 28-27 and blocked an extra point to preserve a win over one of the worst teams in the FBS.

UCLA 4-8
Blowout win over a team who thought they were better than they were.

Utah State 3-9
34-14 over a team who gave up more than 34 points five times.

Arizona 7-5
31-21 loss to a 7-5 PAC-10 team.

(7-29)

USAF

Southern Utah 4-7 (FCS)
41-7 blowout over bad FCS team. The wishbone with mediocre talent works against bad teams. USAF padded their rushing ranking, running for 433 yards.

Houston 7-5
31-28 win over an extremely mediocre team. Houston plays no defense.

Navy 8-4
USAF lost 27-33 to a team who was worse than their record. Navy lost to Duke...Duke. Also lost to Notre Dame, and beat Temple in OT. Yeah, they beat Wake and then lost to them in a bowl. Blind squirrel.

Army 3-9
16-7 win over another service academy.

(10-14)

Colorado State

Colorado 5-7
Lost to the Buffs, 38-17

Sacramento State 6-6 (FCS)
23-20 win. Seriously?

Houston 7-5
28-25 win - another MWC vs CUSA war.

Cal 8-4
42-7 blowout loss

Fresno 7-6
35-30 over WAC mediocrity. They lost to La Tech and Hawaii.

(14-11)


UNLV

Utah State 3-9
27-17 battle of the bottom feeders

AZ St. 5-7
23-20 OT win

Iowa State 2-10
34-31 OT win

Nevada 7-5
49-27 loss

(10-26)


New Mex

TAMU 4-8
28-22 loss to a bad TAMU team (who lost to Arkie State).

Arizona 7-5
Actually beat the mildcats 36-28.

New Mex State 3-9
35-24 over a team beaten 47-2 by Utah State.

(10-14)

Wyoming

Ohio 4-8
21-20 win over a .333 MAC team.

North Dakota State 6-5 (FCS)
16-13 win over mediocre FCS team

Bowling Green 6-6
45-16 loss to .500 MAC team.

Tennessee 5-7
This is the reference that annoys Bama fans. Wyoming beat UT 13-7, 5 days after Coach Fulmer was fired. Many Utah fans have held this game up as evidence that the MWC is competitive...and they ignore the circumstances surrounding the game. Yeah, Wyoming fired their coach a few weeks later...but the game was played 35 days after Fulmer was fired. D-I-S-A-R-R-A-Y was Wyoming's friend.

(9-15)


SDSU

SDSU = Possibly the worst team in the whole of the FBS.

Cal-Poly 8-3 (FCS)
SDSU lost 29-27. Yeah, Poly is a solid FCS team, but they missed the playoffs, and have 20 fewer scholarshipped players. Bad loss.

Notre Dame 6-6
Lost 21-13

Idaho 2-10
WON! 45-17 over the fighting potatoes!

San Jose' State 6-6
35-10 loss to a team who blew out UC Davis 13-10!

(2-10)
_______________________________________

So there you have it. The entire out of conference schedule from the MWC.

For note taking purposes, a quality win will be defined as a win over a non-conference team with a record of .500 (FCS unless otherwise noted).

Utah had 1 quality win - Oregon State.
TCU had no quality wins.
BYU had no quality wins.
USAF 1 win over a 6 win CUSA team - Houston.
CSU 1 win over same CUSA team - Houston.
UNLV had no quality wins.
New Mex 1 win over 7 win PAC-10 team - Arizona.
Wyoming no quality wins
SDSU no quality wins.

So, as a conference, you had four wins over non-conference foes with winning records. Two of them were over the same non-BCS Houston team who posted just two wins over teams with winning records.

One win was over Arizona. Arizona won just two games over teams with winning records - and one of them was against BYU.

The combined record of the teams the OoC teams the MWC beat, was 82-149. Combine that with the fact that more than half of your conference failed to reach .500 in FCS play does not speak well for your conference. Only Colorado State posted wins over OoC teams with a combined winning record, however they also lost to a BCS team with a losing record.

Conversely, the SEC finished a bit down this season, but still had six teams with records above .500.

Just looking at quality wins (same standard - .500 or higher, FCS), the SEC had:

Florida over Miami
Florida over FSU
Georgia over Central Michigan
South Carolina over NC State
Vandy over Rice (sounds tasty)
Tennessee over UNI
Alabama over Clemson
Alabama over Arkansas State
Mississippi over Memphis
LSU over Troy
Auburn over Southern Mississippi
Arkansas over Tulsa

If you are counting, that is 12 wins over 12 non-conference teams with a .500 record or higher...compared to 4 against 3 teams. Among those "quality" wins, are 4 BCS teams.

While admittedly, not all of the "quality" wins were over top level "BCS" competition, several were...and as for the lesser wins...it beats lesser losses. Only Kentucky and MSU failed to post a win over a non conference team with a .500 record or higher.

The bottom line is, if you are going to play in a sucky conference and you want respect, play more quality out of conference opponents. Don't try to prop up statistics using crap teams who compiled stats against crap teams. If an SEC school has a top 20 defense, it means something. If a MWC team has a top 20 defense, they might be as good as Vandy.

KY and Vandy struggled down the stretch because they lack depth and they play in the SEC - the most physical league in the NCAA. If Utah played in the SEC, you would have similar problems. You have a solid 22, but lack the depth to compete with physical teams on a consistent basis. Against Alabama you will be healthy and we will be healthy. The physical pounding will not be so much of an issue as the actual personnel match-ups...and that is an area you are missing on. It is why I made the reference to Hoover High School. Hoover does well when matched up against other teams in their league...but if they were suddenly matched up against Utah, it would get ugly. Utah against Alabama may not be quite that drastic, but it will be a mismatch in key areas - specifically the line. Your starting defensive end who was a freshman AA against MWC opponents in 2007, is a converted QB. There is no way a QB could switch to DE and make AA in the SEC. Your star corner who you plan to match up against Julio Jones, is a converted RB playing just his second year of DB. Julio had over 100 yards receiving against the corners from UGA and Florida...and they were AA's in HS and all-conference level performers. Tennesse had a corner make AA this season - and Julio had over 100 yards against UT.

The physical makeup of your defense is similar to Arkansas. They are small and fast. The problem is that our OL is bigger and faster...and when I made the comment that your strongest lineman would be our 3rd strongest RB, I was not joking. According to reports I have read on your S&C program, we have two RB's who are stronger than your strongest lineman...and our linemen are much stronger than our RB's.

The closest OL to us you have faced was BYU, and they had 419 yards against you. 6 turnovers by BYU is how you won the game. We are very good at turnover margin.

All of this to say, trickle down looks deep. When other posters commented about what was coming - this was it...and there is more where it came from...but you will have to wait on the article to get the distilled version.

 

[Guest]

To be fair, Wyoming announced the firing of their coach before that game too.

Wyoming did not fire coach Glenn until 11/22, after they lost to CSU. Tons of articles around the internet if you want to look it up.

By MATT JOYCE
Associated Press Writer

CHEYENNE, Wyo. (AP) - Wyoming fired coach Joe Glenn on Sunday, a day after the Cowboys finished their fourth losing season in his six years at the school.

http://www.ncaafootball.com/index.p...nel_id=&url_article_id=15183&change_well_id=2

 

[milliondollarfan19]

Ole Miss, LSU, Georgia, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, Kentucky. What do these teams have in common? All of them would be undefeated if they had the same schedule as Utah. With the rest getting honorable mention.

You're kidding, right?

There's three teams in a row that I believe without a doubt would be undefeated in your post. The other 4? Not so sure.

Based on what? I'm trying to base my argument on the facts at hand. I'm working with the statistics we have as a measure of how good a team really is. Are they perfect? no. But they are a hell of a lot better than just saying something is good without backing up that claim with any sort of data. The whole argument being made is based on a assertion that is wholly unproven.

I didn't ask for teams that could go unbeaten in the MWC or more hubris about how good the SEC is. All I'm asking for is the data to back up that assertion. All I'm asking for is the data that shows a top MWC team can't compete with a Top SEC team in 2008. I never hope to convince anyone of a utah win, or for respect, or anything like that. I wanted to know where all this blow out stuff comes from. I read through posts and got the sense that there is an assumption being made about the quality of opponent. I made an argument to elicit that assumption, and then asked for the data that proves that assumption that all this blow out talk comes from. So far it isn't there. I can't find it. Explain it to me, using an objective analysis of the facts at hand.

Utah Vs. New Mexico
13- 10
New Mexico Vs. Tulsa
14- 56
Tulsa Vs. Arkansas
23- 30
Arkansas Vs. Alabama
14- 49

The team you barely beat (NM) who was blown out by Tulsa, who lost to Arkansas ,granted barely, who in turn was blown out by Alabama. Looks like the SEC is better in this picture.

Utah Vs. Oregon State
31- 28
Oregon State Vs. Arizona State
25- 27
Arizona State Vs. Georgia
10- 27
Georgia Vs. Alabama
30- 41

Once again a team that you barely beat (OS) was beat by Arizona State barely who was beaten convincingly by Georgia who in turn was beat by Alabama. and once again the SEC is the better conference.

 

[milliondollarfan19]

Part of the difficulty in doing a thorough comparison of MWC teams in a statistically relevant manner, is the lack of quality non-conference opposition. Doing six degree type comparisons with this kind of match-up is iffy at best because you are not just dealing with W/L records, but who THOSE teams lost to, and HOW they lost.

As previously stated, your conference rarely steps out of the kiddie pool. Your nine member conference only produced 4 teams with records above .500 in D1 play. It is difficult to make a comparison based on in-conference opponents, because your bottom feeders are on-par with division 3 non-scholarship teams. Top to bottom, your non-conference opposition was weak, and the only "ranked" teams your conference played were also cupcake conference members (i.e. Houston). In a couple of instances, it is not your fault. Nobody would have expected Michigan to be terrible when you scheduled them.

Here is how your non conference play looked (MWC vs All)

Utah: Best non-conference schedule overall.
Michigan 3-9

Utah beat Michigan 25-23. The troubling thing is, Michigan gave up 35 or more 6 times, yet Utah was held to 25. Michigan was held to less than 23 on eight occasions. You played them in the first game of the season - in a new offense. A win it was, but it was not dominant.

Utah State 3-9

You blew out Utah State. They are an uber-bottom-feeder, the type of team Vandy would toy with. The only reason they are not statistically worse than they were (and they were bad), is the low level of competition they faced on a weekly basis. An 8 game SEC schedule would have been ugly. As it was, they gave up 66 to Oregon, 44 to Nevada, 49 to Boise, and 45 to La Tech.

Weber State 10-4(FCS)

A solid FCS team, but not competitive against FCS teams. Utah beat them 37-21. How did they score 21? How did you give up over 300 yards passing and 356 total yards? Their other FCS foe was Hawaii who held them to fewer points and fewer yards. Maybe not embarrassing, but not a quality win - or dominant performance against a lower division team.

Oregon State 8-4(Best non-conference)

You caught OSU at a good time - coming off of an emotional win over USC at home. Oregon State was a strange team in 2008, losing to Stanford, getting blown out by PSU, and giving up 65 to Oregon...but I will give you credit for a solid 3 point home win.

(14-22)

TCU

Stephen F. Austin 4-8 (FCS)
Not much to say here. 67-7 over a team routinely blown out.

Stanford 5-7
31-14 - beat them about like others...credit for holding them to their lowest point total of the season...but not by much.

SMU 1-11
A win over a very bad team. SMU's lone win was an 11 point margin over Texas State.

Oklahoma 12-1
The game was 28-3 at the half...OU coasted.

(6-18)

BYU

Northern Iowa (FCS)
Win over FCS team...a good FCS team...but an FCS team.

Washington 0-12
Ouch. 28-27 and blocked an extra point to preserve a win over one of the worst teams in the FBS.

UCLA 4-8
Blowout win over a team who thought they were better than they were.

Utah State 3-9
34-14 over a team who gave up more than 34 points five times.

Arizona 7-5
31-21 loss to a 7-5 PAC-10 team.

(7-29)

USAF

Southern Utah 4-7 (FCS)
41-7 blowout over bad FCS team. The wishbone with mediocre talent works against bad teams. USAF padded their rushing ranking, running for 433 yards.

Houston 7-5
31-28 win over an extremely mediocre team. Houston plays no defense.

Navy 8-4
USAF lost 27-33 to a team who was worse than their record. Navy lost to Duke...Duke. Also lost to Notre Dame, and beat Temple in OT. Yeah, they beat Wake and then lost to them in a bowl. Blind squirrel.

Army 3-9
16-7 win over another service academy.

(10-14)

Colorado State

Colorado 5-7
Lost to the Buffs, 38-17

Sacramento State 6-6 (FCS)
23-20 win. Seriously?

Houston 7-5
28-25 win - another MWC vs CUSA war.

Cal 8-4
42-7 blowout loss

Fresno 7-6
35-30 over WAC mediocrity. They lost to La Tech and Hawaii.

(14-11)


UNLV

Utah State 3-9
27-17 battle of the bottom feeders

AZ St. 5-7
23-20 OT win

Iowa State 2-10
34-31 OT win

Nevada 7-5
49-27 loss

(10-26)


New Mex

TAMU 4-8
28-22 loss to a bad TAMU team (who lost to Arkie State).

Arizona 7-5
Actually beat the mildcats 36-28.

New Mex State 3-9
35-24 over a team beaten 47-2 by Utah State.

(10-14)

Wyoming

Ohio 4-8
21-20 win over a .333 MAC team.

North Dakota State 6-5 (FCS)
16-13 win over mediocre FCS team

Bowling Green 6-6
45-16 loss to .500 MAC team.

Tennessee 5-7
This is the reference that annoys Bama fans. Wyoming beat UT 13-7, 5 days after Coach Fulmer was fired. Many Utah fans have held this game up as evidence that the MWC is competitive...and they ignore the circumstances surrounding the game. Yeah, Wyoming fired their coach a few weeks later...but the game was played 35 days after Fulmer was fired. D-I-S-A-R-R-A-Y was Wyoming's friend.

(9-15)


SDSU

SDSU = Possibly the worst team in the whole of the FBS.

Cal-Poly 8-3 (FCS)
SDSU lost 29-27. Yeah, Poly is a solid FCS team, but they missed the playoffs, and have 20 fewer scholarshipped players. Bad loss.

Notre Dame 6-6
Lost 21-13

Idaho 2-10
WON! 45-17 over the fighting potatoes!

San Jose' State 6-6
35-10 loss to a team who blew out UC Davis 13-10!

(2-10)
_______________________________________

So there you have it. The entire out of conference schedule from the MWC.

For note taking purposes, a quality win will be defined as a win over a non-conference team with a record of .500 (FCS unless otherwise noted).

Utah had 1 quality win - Oregon State.
TCU had no quality wins.
BYU had no quality wins.
USAF 1 win over a 6 win CUSA team - Houston.
CSU 1 win over same CUSA team - Houston.
UNLV had no quality wins.
New Mex 1 win over 7 win PAC-10 team - Arizona.
Wyoming no quality wins
SDSU no quality wins.

So, as a conference, you had four wins over non-conference foes with winning records. Two of them were over the same non-BCS Houston team who posted just two wins over teams with winning records.

One win was over Arizona. Arizona won just two games over teams with winning records - and one of them was against BYU.

The combined record of the teams the OoC teams the MWC beat, was 82-149. Combine that with the fact that more than half of your conference failed to reach .500 in FCS play does not speak well for your conference. Only Colorado State posted wins over OoC teams with a combined winning record, however they also lost to a BCS team with a losing record.

Conversely, the SEC finished a bit down this season, but still had six teams with records above .500.

Just looking at quality wins (same standard - .500 or higher, FCS), the SEC had:

Florida over Miami
Florida over FSU
Georgia over Central Michigan
South Carolina over NC State
Vandy over Rice (sounds tasty)
Tennessee over UNI
Alabama over Clemson
Alabama over Arkansas State
Mississippi over Memphis
LSU over Troy
Auburn over Southern Mississippi
Arkansas over Tulsa

If you are counting, that is 12 wins over 12 non-conference teams with a .500 record or higher...compared to 4 against 3 teams. Among those "quality" wins, are 4 BCS teams.

While admittedly, not all of the "quality" wins were over top level "BCS" competition, several were...and as for the lesser wins...it beats lesser losses. Only Kentucky and MSU failed to post a win over a non conference team with a .500 record or higher.

The bottom line is, if you are going to play in a sucky conference and you want respect, play more quality out of conference opponents. Don't try to prop up statistics using crap teams who compiled stats against crap teams. If an SEC school has a top 20 defense, it means something. If a MWC team has a top 20 defense, they might be as good as Vandy.

KY and Vandy struggled down the stretch because they lack depth and they play in the SEC - the most physical league in the NCAA. If Utah played in the SEC, you would have similar problems. You have a solid 22, but lack the depth to compete with physical teams on a consistent basis. Against Alabama you will be healthy and we will be healthy. The physical pounding will not be so much of an issue as the actual personnel match-ups...and that is an area you are missing on. It is why I made the reference to Hoover High School. Hoover does well when matched up against other teams in their league...but if they were suddenly matched up against Utah, it would get ugly. Utah against Alabama may not be quite that drastic, but it will be a mismatch in key areas - specifically the line. Your starting defensive end who was a freshman AA against MWC opponents in 2007, is a converted QB. There is no way a QB could switch to DE and make AA in the SEC. Your star corner who you plan to match up against Julio Jones, is a converted RB playing just his second year of DB. Julio had over 100 yards receiving against the corners from UGA and Florida...and they were AA's in HS and all-conference level performers. Tennesse had a corner make AA this season - and Julio had over 100 yards against UT.

The physical makeup of your defense is similar to Arkansas. They are small and fast. The problem is that our OL is bigger and faster...and when I made the comment that your strongest lineman would be our 3rd strongest RB, I was not joking. According to reports I have read on your S&C program, we have two RB's who are stronger than your strongest lineman...and our linemen are much stronger than our RB's.

The closest OL to us you have faced was BYU, and they had 419 yards against you. 6 turnovers by BYU is how you won the game. We are very good at turnover margin.

All of this to say, trickle down looks deep. When other posters commented about what was coming - this was it...and there is more where it came from...but you will have to wait on the article to get the distilled version.

^^YOUda

 

[NTT]

In the 2 biggest wins by Utah (TCU and BYU) those 2 teams had a combined 7 intrceptions pretty much giving the game to the Utes. Alabama Quarterbacks combined had 7 interceptions all year.

 

[SkinyUte]

To be fair, Wyoming announced the firing of their coach before that game too.

Wyoming did not fire coach Glenn until 11/22, after they lost to CSU. Tons of articles around the internet if you want to look it up.

Like I've said before, they made it official on 11/22, but it was made common knowledge about a week before the Tennessee game.

Tennessee 5-7
This is the reference that annoys Bama fans. Wyoming beat UT 13-7, 5 days after Coach Fulmer was fired. Many Utah fans have held this game up as evidence that the MWC is competitive...and they ignore the circumstances surrounding the game. Yeah, Wyoming fired their coach a few weeks later...but the game was played 35 days after Fulmer was fired. D-I-S-A-R-R-A-Y was Wyoming's friend.

Trust me, it annoys MWC fans just as much to hear over and over (and over and over and over and over and over and over) again how our conference never stands a head-to-head chance against SEC competition in any possible way or in any possible scenario. Yet the one instance of, you know, actual head-to-head competition is immediately dismissed because "Tennessee was in dissaray". Sucks for them, but Wyoming traveled halfway across the country - under similar coaching circumstances - and won that game. Does Tenn win that game 9 times out of 10? Probably. But it does prove the "any given day" theory pretty well, which is what Utah is hoping will happen on Jan 2.

In the end, however, the fact that our crappy team beating your crappy team means squat to the game at hand.

Weber State 10-4(FCS)

A solid FCS team, but not competitive against FCS teams. Utah beat them 37-21. How did they score 21? How did you give up over 300 yards passing and 356 total yards? Their other FCS foe was Hawaii who held them to fewer points and fewer yards. Maybe not embarrassing, but not a quality win - or dominant performance against a lower division team.

A little clarification on this game. Weber State is coached by Ron Mcbride, who was the head coach at Utah for many years. He's a beloved figure around here, and the chance for him to play again in Rice Eccles stadium was the main reason that game was ever added to the schedule. McBride was one of the biggest mentors for our head coach, and Coach Whitt credits McBride for being where he is today. Hell, the Utah crowd even gave the guy a 5 minute standing ovation before the game. How often does that happen for a visiting coach? As a gesture of respect, Utah pulled all their starters and put in 4th stringers at the beginning of the fourth quarter when the game was well in hand at 34-7. (seriously, they put in guys none of us had ever heard of and didn't even know were on the depth chart). McBride responded by leaving all his starters in and launching an all-out aerial attack and scoring 2 meaningless late touchdowns. Coach Whit was furious about it after the game, but didn't figure that keeping the score down was worth the risk of injuring any of our starters.

So once again, final scores don't tell the whole story.

 

[Guest]

Weber State 10-4(FCS)

A solid FCS team, but not competitive against FCS teams. Utah beat them 37-21. How did they score 21? How did you give up over 300 yards passing and 356 total yards? Their other FCS foe was Hawaii who held them to fewer points and fewer yards. Maybe not embarrassing, but not a quality win - or dominant performance against a lower division team.

A little clarification on this game. Weber State is coached by Ron Mcbride, who was the coach at Utah for many years. He's a beloved figure around here, and the chance for him to play again in Rice Eccles stadium was the main reason that game was ever added to the schedule. McBride was one of the main mentors for our head coach, and Kyle credits him for being where he is today. Hell, the Utah crowd even gave the guy a 5 minute standing ovation before the game. How often does that happen for a visiting coach? As a gesture of respect, Utah pulled all their starters and put in 4th stringers at the beginning of the fourth quarter when the game was 34-7. (seriously, we were playing guys none of us had ever heard of, and didn't even know were on the depth chart). McBride responded by leaving all his starters in a going for an all-out aerial attack and scoring 2 meaningless late touchdowns. Coach Whit was furious about it after the game, but didn't figure that keeping the score down was worth the risk of injuring any of our starters.

So once again, final scores don't tell the whole story.

That's cool, I'd like to see that got it on the Utube?

 

[SkinyUte]

Weber State 10-4(FCS)

A solid FCS team, but not competitive against FCS teams. Utah beat them 37-21. How did they score 21? How did you give up over 300 yards passing and 356 total yards? Their other FCS foe was Hawaii who held them to fewer points and fewer yards. Maybe not embarrassing, but not a quality win - or dominant performance against a lower division team.

A little clarification on this game. Weber State is coached by Ron Mcbride, who was the coach at Utah for many years. He's a beloved figure around here, and the chance for him to play again in Rice Eccles stadium was the main reason that game was ever added to the schedule. McBride was one of the main mentors for our head coach, and Kyle credits him for being where he is today. Hell, the Utah crowd even gave the guy a 5 minute standing ovation before the game. How often does that happen for a visiting coach? As a gesture of respect, Utah pulled all their starters and put in 4th stringers at the beginning of the fourth quarter when the game was 34-7. (seriously, we were playing guys none of us had ever heard of, and didn't even know were on the depth chart). McBride responded by leaving all his starters in a going for an all-out aerial attack and scoring 2 meaningless late touchdowns. Coach Whit was furious about it after the game, but didn't figure that keeping the score down was worth the risk of injuring any of our starters.

So once again, final scores don't tell the whole story.

That's cool, I'd like to see that got it on the Utube?

I remember seeing a clip of it after the game, but can't seem to find it now. I'll ask around on Utefans, I'm sure someone there knows where it is.

 

[Guest]

A little clarification on this game. Weber State is coached by Ron Mcbride, who was the head coach at Utah for many years. He's a beloved figure around here, and the chance for him to play again in Rice Eccles stadium was the main reason that game was ever added to the schedule. McBride was one of the biggest mentors for our head coach, and Coach Whitt credits McBride for being where he is today. Hell, the Utah crowd even gave the guy a 5 minute standing ovation before the game. How often does that happen for a visiting coach? As a gesture of respect, Utah pulled all their starters and put in 4th stringers at the beginning of the fourth quarter when the game was well in hand at 34-7. (seriously, they put in guys none of us had ever heard of and didn't even know were on the depth chart). McBride responded by leaving all his starters in and launching an all-out aerial attack and scoring 2 meaningless late touchdowns. Coach Whit was furious about it after the game, but didn't figure that keeping the score down was worth the risk of injuring any of our starters.

So once again, final scores don't tell the whole story.

Kind of like the Tulane score does not tell the whole story.

Tulane was evacuated from New Orleans to Birmingham a week before our game because of a hurricane. They had two weeks off, and spend the entire week prior to our game with no classes, sequestered on the Samford campus with nothing to do but watch film of us and prepare for the game. We still won the game, but it was ugly.

 

[SkinyUte]

A little clarification on this game. Weber State is coached by Ron Mcbride, who was the head coach at Utah for many years. He's a beloved figure around here, and the chance for him to play again in Rice Eccles stadium was the main reason that game was ever added to the schedule. McBride was one of the biggest mentors for our head coach, and Coach Whitt credits McBride for being where he is today. Hell, the Utah crowd even gave the guy a 5 minute standing ovation before the game. How often does that happen for a visiting coach? As a gesture of respect, Utah pulled all their starters and put in 4th stringers at the beginning of the fourth quarter when the game was well in hand at 34-7. (seriously, they put in guys none of us had ever heard of and didn't even know were on the depth chart). McBride responded by leaving all his starters in and launching an all-out aerial attack and scoring 2 meaningless late touchdowns. Coach Whit was furious about it after the game, but didn't figure that keeping the score down was worth the risk of injuring any of our starters.

So once again, final scores don't tell the whole story.

Kind of like the Tulane score does not tell the whole story.

Tulane was evacuated from New Orleans to Birmingham a week before our game because of a hurricane. They had two weeks off, and spend the entire week prior to our game with no classes, sequestered on the Samford campus with nothing to do but watch film of us and prepare for the game. We still won the game, but it was ugly.

Guess that bodes well for Utah, since they have a month to watch film! :wink:

 

[pop]

Utah Vs. New Mexico
13- 10
New Mexico Vs. Tulsa
14- 56
Tulsa Vs. Arkansas
23- 30
Arkansas Vs. Alabama
14- 49

The team you barely beat (NM) who was blown out by Tulsa, who lost to Arkansas ,granted barely, who in turn was blown out by Alabama. Looks like the SEC is better in this picture.

Utah Vs. Oregon State
31- 28
Oregon State Vs. Arizona State
25- 27
Arizona State Vs. Georgia
10- 27
Georgia Vs. Alabama
30- 41

Here's the problem, heres the bias. You take one look, one instance and prop it up as valid for making wild conclusions. Why, I ask, didn't you look at the unlv game against Arizona St?? arizona st. 20 unlv 23, utah 42 unlv 21. So a team that beat that arizona st team we trounced. A game to game analysis increases its error at every level. the level of play changes from week to week and offers little in the way of statistical accuracy. The only game that means anything this year is
WYO vs Tenn. Lets try that analysis with Utah colored glasses on and see where we get.
_________________Utah 48 BYU 24
utah 40 wyo 7 BYU 59 UCLA 0
Wyo 13 Tenn 7 OR Tenn 24 UCLA 27
tenn 9 alabama 29 Tenn 9 bama 29

By this string we should win this game easy. you only beat TEnn by 20 who lost to UCLA by 3 who BYU beat by 59, who we beat by 24. Thats like a 70pt advantage in our favor. And you can't throw out that one because fulmer was just fired. They still thought they were good at that point, and people thought UCLA might not be terrible.

I don't believe this type of analysis. If in 2 minutes I can come up with 2 results that are just as good that 'verify' my view point, then all I'm doing is mining the data at hand for results that confirm the position that I already hold. Its not a valid argument to ascertain the truth to answer the question, In 2008 can a top MWC compete with a top SEC team?

 

[pop]

In response to Big_fan's post. Great analysis. You really do your homework and it shows. Your love for alabama football comes through your posts, its nice to meet passionate fans.

I will happily concede that SEC OoC was more successful than the MWC. We scheduled Michigan a few years back, didn't really get the team that everyone expected. I agree that Oregon st was the best win OoC. I actually think they would have won the PAC10 too if Jacquizz Rogers wasn't hurt for the Oregon game. They were a good team this year.

I think there are mitigating factors that pressure the formation of an OoC schedule however. Teams that aren't in the BCS know that there is one path to get into the big money games and that is going undefeated. We don't have the luxury of a slip up game. Florida only slipped once to Miss. but still gets to play for the natl championship. Interestingly though Bamas only slip was against the now #1 team. If that loss had been in weeks 1-5 Alabama would be playing for the NC. The system in inherently flawed in its selection process. Be that as it may, you have to play the game and give yourself the best chance possible. Lsu had 2 slip ups.
That difference forces teams out of the BCS to play schedules that are inviting to keeping that hope alive. Utah had originally scheduled to play texas this year. When the powers that be looked at that match up and the prospect of having Michigan, Texas, OrSt., Utah St. as our OoC people got worried that would be too much to hold on to that hope. We wouldn't be allowed a slip against those teams. We have to be undefeated to get in the games. Texas was the last game scheduled and was removed, and we scrambled to fill it with Weber St. In hindsight, it would have been better to drop michigan, but we play with what we are given.

Utah is the most successful team against BCS competition since its inception in 1998 going 16-10 wins against Arizona (2), Cal, Georgia Tech, Indiana (2), Louisville, Michigan, North Carolina, Oregon St., Oregon, Pittsburgh, Texas A&M, UCLA, USC, Washington State.

We are the most accomplished team to bust the BCS of the other 3 teams.
utah '08- 3 wins against top 25 teams (3-0 against #11,#16,#24).12th/15th in scoring off/def
Hawaii '07 was 1st/46th no top25 wins
BSU '06 was 2nd/20th 1 win against top25
utah'04 was 3rd/23rd no wins in top25.
bama'08 30th/6th (2-1vs top25 wins against #16,#20,Loss#1)

This isn't an argument about how we would fare in the SEC, or who is stronger, or how good a freshman is, or disrespect, or talent level. Those things are pure, PURE speculation not based in FACT. Its about one game, and one side predicting a blowout victory based on erroneous assumptions that are unproven.

But that will all be irrelevant on Jan. 2nd. Its two teams with overwhelmingly statistically similar seasons going head to head to settle the debate.

 

[imalive1459]

blah blah blah...

When it boils down to it, none of this talk is relevant to the situation. You can't prove any of this.

But...

We're fans. It's what we do. We don't suit up in helmets and pads, we suit up in t-shirts and (many times)homer-like statistical analyses.

The only way to find out who is right? Let the teams play it out.

Maybe we should have a 'fan' game. :wink:

 

[BamaChef]

"_pops_"
"This isn't an argument about how we would fare in the SEC, or who is stronger, or how good a freshman is, or disrespect, or talent level. Those things are pure, PURE speculation not based in FACT. Its about one game, and one side predicting a blowout victory based on erroneous assumptions that are unproven.".......

Then what the heck do you want us to answer with bc I think BigFan just put a sock in your mouth and I really hope you didnt choke on it..., but really you use "BASED IN FACT" alot, thats your freaking scapegoat!
You know what I would like to know...... your obviously stupid definition of FACT, they must teach something different down in the MWC. I have really cheered your conference on this year bc yall play alot mediocre pac10 teams, and I really hate PAC10. they are so riding the piggyback train known as USC.
USC monopolized the whole west coast in recruiting. The other pac10 teams pretty much get who USC doesnt have room for.But yet the Yankee+Westcost Gel head writers love to kiss the ground USC walks on. I seriously think yall would have a better chance of beating USC than BAMA. No disrespect meant. But Alabama wins games in the trenches and I just think yall will be mismatched not only to our 1st string but our ability to substitute to guys that are just as good from different perspectives. Utah does not have that depth. Yes I am using biased analogies but I dont think statistics are gonna save you guys in this one. And POPS it really shows that you have been too busy with medical school to mess with football X's&O's, BC you pretty much repeat yourself in similar topics over and over while whining about Unproven FACTS. I really wish this game would hurry up bc apparently you cant convince HOMERISH Lower Conferences what the SEC is about. It's just one of those things you will have to experience firsthand. But hey be glad you get the chance to experience a taste of it soon...
And thats what defines "POPS"..... Badly calculated statistics. you sound like the florida forums with all these statistic comparisons, except Florida can actually back up alot of them.


What I have to say to you Utes is to schedule better OOC games against sec/big12/acc, or the few good teams in pac-big 10, and build some reputation before coming on to a very respectable board throwing out useless statistics.

thank you and Merry Christmas

 

[Guest]

In response to Big_fan's post. Great analysis. You really do your homework and it shows. Your love for alabama football comes through your posts, its nice to meet passionate fans.

I will happily concede that SEC OoC was more successful than the MWC. We scheduled Michigan a few years back, didn't really get the team that everyone expected. I agree that Oregon st was the best win OoC. I actually think they would have won the PAC10 too if Jacquizz Rogers wasn't hurt for the Oregon game. They were a good team this year.

I think there are mitigating factors that pressure the formation of an OoC schedule however. Teams that aren't in the BCS know that there is one path to get into the big money games and that is going undefeated. We don't have the luxury of a slip up game. Florida only slipped once to Miss. but still gets to play for the natl championship. Interestingly though Bamas only slip was against the now #1 team. If that loss had been in weeks 1-5 Alabama would be playing for the NC. The system in inherently flawed in its selection process. Be that as it may, you have to play the game and give yourself the best chance possible. Lsu had 2 slip ups.
That difference forces teams out of the BCS to play schedules that are inviting to keeping that hope alive. Utah had originally scheduled to play texas this year. When the powers that be looked at that match up and the prospect of having Michigan, Texas, OrSt., Utah St. as our OoC people got worried that would be too much to hold on to that hope. We wouldn't be allowed a slip against those teams. We have to be undefeated to get in the games. Texas was the last game scheduled and was removed, and we scrambled to fill it with Weber St. In hindsight, it would have been better to drop michigan, but we play with what we are given.

Utah is the most successful team against BCS competition since its inception in 1998 going 16-10 wins against Arizona (2), Cal, Georgia Tech, Indiana (2), Louisville, Michigan, North Carolina, Oregon St., Oregon, Pittsburgh, Texas A&M, UCLA, USC, Washington State.

We are the most accomplished team to bust the BCS of the other 3 teams.
utah '08- 3 wins against top 25 teams (3-0 against #11,#16,#24).12th/15th in scoring off/def
Hawaii '07 was 1st/46th no top25 wins
BSU '06 was 2nd/20th 1 win against top25
utah'04 was 3rd/23rd no wins in top25.
bama'08 30th/6th (2-1vs top25 wins against #16,#20,Loss#1)

This isn't an argument about how we would fare in the SEC, or who is stronger, or how good a freshman is, or disrespect, or talent level. Those things are pure, PURE speculation not based in FACT. Its about one game, and one side predicting a blowout victory based on erroneous assumptions that are unproven.

But that will all be irrelevant on Jan. 2nd. Its two teams with overwhelmingly statistically similar seasons going head to head to settle the debate.

And the point you are REALLY missing, is that it is not about match ups of conferences - it is about matchups of the players making up our two teams.

In working on the trickle down analysis, I look at other teams and results, purely from positional matchups. In other words, the quality of the line play and skill position versus skill position...and in those situations the game results don't matter.

You do not match up well and as much as I hope for a truly entertaining clash for the ages (unlike regular season games I want to win by blowout, bowls I like a good game)...I think it will be over by mid way through the third.

 

[Outlaw]

Ole Miss, LSU, Georgia, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, Kentucky. What do these teams have in common? All of them would be undefeated if they had the same schedule as Utah. With the rest getting honorable mention.

You're kidding, right?

There's three teams in a row that I believe without a doubt would be undefeated in your post. The other 4? Not so sure.

Based on what? I'm trying to base my argument on the facts at hand. I'm working with the statistics we have as a measure of how good a team really is. Are they perfect? no. But they are a hell of a lot better than just saying something is good without backing up that claim with any sort of data. The whole argument being made is based on a assertion that is wholly unproven.

I didn't ask for teams that could go unbeaten in the MWC or more hubris about how good the SEC is. All I'm asking for is the data to back up that assertion. All I'm asking for is the data that shows a top MWC team can't compete with a Top SEC team in 2008. I never hope to convince anyone of a utah win, or for respect, or anything like that. I wanted to know where all this blow out stuff comes from. I read through posts and got the sense that there is an assumption being made about the quality of opponent. I made an argument to elicit that assumption, and then asked for the data that proves that assumption that all this blow out talk comes from. So far it isn't there. I can't find it. Explain it to me, using an objective analysis of the facts at hand.

Whoa whoa whoa there pop, reading comp 101 would easily display to you that I was actually arguing with you. I don't think Utah will beat us, but I believe Utah is better than multiple teams in the SEC. Hence why I called NTT out on saying a team like Kentucky and South Carolina would be undefeated.

I do believe the MWC is a very weak conference. However, I do not believe that Utah and TCU are very weak teams.

Don't be so paranoid, pop.

 

[Guest]

Sorry I hate all this statistical banter....

But that will all be irrelevant on Jan. 2nd. Its two teams with overwhelmingly statistically similar seasons going head to head to settle the debate.

'Cause stats mean crap on the field. Stats do not win games.

Bama should beat Utah, but it does not mean it will happen either way because of stats.

Yeah I know that this is what forums are for....meh.

Guess that bodes well for Utah, since they have a month to watch film! Wink

Bama only had a normal week off to prepare for Tulane after a huge emotion open season win. Bama will have the same amount of time to prepare, so no lean/edge for prep to either team.