College football Games of the Year set to be released at Golden Nugget ā hereās a sneak peak
LAS VEGAS -- A few years ago, the general manager of a hotel/casino I worked at told me that something isnāt right with an operation if dozens of people are waiting in line to wager on an opening number.
āNo one waits in line if they think theyāre getting hosed on a number,ā he would say. āTheyāre only there because they think (know) theyāre getting an edge.ā
In many cases, he was absolutely correct. Limit-plays would come from all over when bettors could shave a half-point or get the best of a line barely on or off the most key number of '3' in football. But weād still run whatever promotion it was because it built traffic and increased volume.
Golden Nugget sports book director Tony Miller on Friday will open wagering on the 2014 college football season, but the big difference between what heās doing and what I experienced is that heās posting numbers that have never been seen before. The people waiting in line to bet his 200 'Games of the Year' are making their best educated guesses on what a number should be.
Itās plenty harder for a bettor who talks a mean game to talk the same game when there is no number in the market to go off of. When a wanna-be wiseguy tells you a number is off, heās espousing that knowledge based on information heās finding on his hand-held device that is telling him what the market number around the world is.
Wagering on the college games that will be released Friday at the Nugget takes a lot more skill than itāll take for the rest of the year. Itās almost like the good old days at the Stardust, when there were no offshore numbers and the line posted every Sunday night rippled through the gambling world via pay-phone. With the exception of Week 1, there are no reference points for the bettor, who have to rely on their own smarts. It's fascinating to see what teams and games they attack first.
On Friday, bettors will put their personal ratings up against those of Miller and his trusty sidekick Aaron Kessler. The bettors and bookmakers have both done their homework. Now they go head-to-head, and they'll have to wait a few months to see who is smarter.
So far over this six-year excursion at the Nugget, Miller and Kessler have been right more often than the bettors have. On two occasions, the house has lost with this early-season promotion. But since they started posting more games, theyāve been able to reel in more plays ā often on games bettors may not have even been looking to wager ā which has brought the advantage back to the house.
Sneak peak
Miller and I go way back ā we worked together at a sports book in Las Vegas, and I visited him and his wife in London while they were living there. So he threw me and The Linemakers a bone by offering us a couple of the early numbers he and Kessler, along with advisor Bruce Marshall of the Gold Sheet, came up with.
A few of the opening numbers stand out immediately.
On Sept. 13, Miller has UCLA -8.5 against Texas at Jerry World in Arlington. Yes, Texas is down and UCLA should be better than it was in 2013, but that spread marks about a 6-point ratings swing from last season.
"Yes, you're correct," said Miller. "We were all high on UCLA and down on Texas. Brett Hundley is a very good QB and (the Bruins) have 16 starters back. Texas, meanwhile, does have a new coach coming in, Charlie Strong, and a QB with concussion symptoms."
I go further down the schedule and see Alabama -21 at home on Sept. 20 against Florida, which indicates the Crimson Tideās power rating hasnāt changed much from 2014. Alabama at home ā even with a new starting QB ā deserves to have a 5-to 6-point home edge attached against a bewildered Gatorsā squad.
"Aaron and Bruce like Alabama to reload and be there again," said Miller, "but I'm not so sure. They lost a ton of defensive starters, key offensive lineman and A.J. McCarron. But they will reload at all positions and might have the best running backs in the country."
On Nov. 8, Alabama is a 2.5-point favorite at LSU.
Oklahoma being a 9-point favorite over the Longhorns at Dallas on Oct. 11 also didnāt faze me, but it did reaffirm that Miller, Kessler and Marshall are down on the Texas program this season. Itās basically saying Texas is in for a rough year and will have to earn respect under their new coach. If you believe Texas is in for a big year, this book has plenty of juicy Nuggets for you.
On Oct. 18, we have Florida State as a 24-point home favorite against Notre Dame, which is about a 4-point increase from where the spread might have been at the end of last season.
My curiosity on the Nuggetās numbers was piqued when I saw Michigan State a 1-point home favorite over Ohio State on Nov. 8. Iām not quite sure why I root for the Buckeyes other than my brother living in Gambier, OH, but between the Thurman CafĆ© burgers in Columbus and reveling in the plight of the Buckeye fan, I have followed them with great interest.
Last season the Buckeyes went 12-0 in their first 12 games before losing 34-24 as 5.5-point favorites to Michigan State on a neutral field in the Big-12 Championship Game. Ohio State would close out its season with a 40-35 loss to Clemson in the Orange Bowl and finish 0-5 against-the-spread in its last five games.
On Nov 29, Ohio State is slated as an 8-point favorite at home against Michigan, while Alabama is -6 in the Iron Bowl against Auburn. Here in Nevada weāll have interest in UNLV ā fresh off a bowl appearance ā being a 5-point home underdog to Nevada in the battle for the Fremont Cannon.
One team you can expect to see the Nugget post higher numbers than expected on is Oregon.
"Aaron is very high on Oregon this year, as am I," said Miller. "We took strong stands with their spreads. I also think (Marcus) Mariota wins the Heisman."
Stay Tuned
Thatās all for now from Las Vegas. Weāll publish all 200 of the Golden Nuggetās āGames of the Yearā on Friday, and weāll post a video this weekend with Miller discussing the early betting action he booked when his lines were released, and the process he and his team went through to come up with the numbers.
If you just want to get a small glimpse of how things used to be done in the golden era of Las Vegas sports books, get over to the Nugget on Friday for the madness that begins at 1 p.m. PT. Bettors will be able to make five limit-plays per visit and then they'll have to go to the back of the line. The Nugget will have three windows dedicated to 'Game of the Year' wagers.
