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Creg Stephenson | cstephenson@al.com
It's May, which means it's time for our annual bold predictions for the upcoming SEC football season.
This is the fourth year we've done this column, and my record in that span is 7-8. That's not sterling by any means, but to quote noted philosopher George Costanza, it's "right in that meaty part of the curve -- not showing off, not falling behind."
You can check our record for yourself if you want. Here are our SEC bold predictions columns for 2015, 2016 and 2017.
Buoyed by our 3-2 (and very nearly 4-1) finish last year, we're ready to make some wild declarations once again. Here are 5 bold SEC football predictions for 2018:
1. No head coach will be fired, but one will come dangerously close
After last year's bloodletting resulting in five coaches losing their jobs (and a sixth jumping from one SEC school to another), it only seems natural that there would be some stability in 2018.
A wild-card resides in Baton Rouge, where Ed Orgeron inexplicably guided LSU to a 9-4 finish a year ago. Orgeron's second full year might be when the wheels run off, however.
LSU's defense should be very good, but scoring enough points might be a challenge. The Tigers changed offensive coordinators for no good reason, handing the reins back to Steve Ensminger, whose previous dalliances as a coordinator haven't necessarily gone well.
Add in a potentially killer schedule that adds games with Miami and Georgia this year, along with annual bloodbaths against Alabama, Florida and Auburn, and the Tigers might be staring at 6-6. One bad game against one of the SEC West also-rans could spell doom for Coach O.
Also keep an eye on fifth-year Vanderbilt head coach Derek Mason, who might be on the hot seat (if there is such a thing at Vandy) following a 1-7 finish in the league last season. The rest of the SEC East is getting better around the Commodores, and it's difficult to see them winning more than
six games even in a good year.
2. South Carolina will finish second in the SEC East
Instability at Tennessee and Florida could be a boon for the Gamecocks, who have exceeded expectations two years in a row now under Will Muschamp.
South Carolina returns perhaps the SEC's most-underrated quarterback in rising junior Jake Bentley, and gets all-purpose dynamo Deebo Samuel back after a year lost mostly to injury. Bryan McClendon taking over for long-time Muschamp aide Kurt Roper at offensive coordinator might be an upgrade as well.
Keys for the Gamecocks include rebuilding their offensive line (which wasn't all that great last year to begin with) and identifying more playmakers on defense. A three-game stretch in October-November -- home for Tennessee, then at Ole Miss and at Florida -- will tell the tale for South Carolina.
3. The most successful first-year coach will reside in Starkville
There are five new coaches in the SEC this year -- six if you count Matt Luke becoming the full-time guy at Ole Miss, but none inherited a better situation than Mississippi State's Joe Moorhead.
The former Penn State offensive coordinator (and one-time Fordham head coach) takes over a team with 19 returning starters, including a potential All-American in defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons and a dynamic quarterback in Nick Fitzgerald. A schedule that includes home games against Auburn, Florida, Texas A&M and Arkansas is also manageable.
Given his lack of familiarity with the Southeast, Moorhead might have challenges as a recruiter going forward, but the team he'll put on the field in 2018 shouldn't have much trouble winning eight or nine games. First-year coaches at Arkansas, Texas A&M, Tennessee and Florida aren't quite as well set up for immediate success.
4. Auburn's latest 1,000-yard rusher won't be who everyone thinks
Like clockwork, Auburn has had a 1,000-yard rusher every season dating to 2009. But the last two years at least, it's been a different person than the projected starter going into the fall.
In 2016, Kamryn Pettway took over following the August dismissal of Jovon Robinson, and rushed for 1,224 yards. Last season, it was Kerryon Johnson who topped the 1,000 mark (1,391 actually, with an SEC-best 20 total touchdowns) after Pettway was injured early in the year.
Coming out of spring, Kam Martin looks like the heir apparent, having averaged 6.6 yards per carry in reserve duty the last two years. However, at 5-foot-10 and 182 pounds, Martin isn't really build for the rigors of an SEC schedule.
Instead, look for redshirt freshman JaTarvious "Boobee" Whitlow -- who is 6-foot, 210 -- to be the Tigers' bell cow in 2018.
5. Two teams will go undefeated in the regular season
The preseason Las Vegas odds place Alabama's over-under at 10.5 wins, which seems like easy money. The Crimson Tide hasn't won fewer than 11 regular season games since 2010.
In 2018, Alabama isn't likely to even be challenged before November, and might be a three-touchdown favorite in every game prior to the Iron Bowl. That's plenty of time for the Crimson Tide's re-tooled defensive secondary to gain its footing, while the Tua Tagovailoa-led offense might be among the best in school history.
With the Auburn game in Tuscaloosa, I'm calling for Alabama to go undefeated in the regular season. Joining the Tide in the SEC championship game will be another 12-0 team -- Georgia.
The Bulldogs lost a lot of talent from last season's SEC championship team -- particularly on defense. However, back-to-back Top 5 recruiting classes will show up this year. Georgia is likely to be favored in every game this season, and gets Auburn and Georgia Tech at home in November.
Creg Stephenson | cstephenson@al.com
AL.com All-Access: 5 bold SEC football predictions for 2018
This is the fourth year we've done this column, and my record in that span is 7-8. That's not sterling by any means, but to quote noted philosopher George Costanza, it's "right in that meaty part of the curve -- not showing off, not falling behind."
You can check our record for yourself if you want. Here are our SEC bold predictions columns for 2015, 2016 and 2017.
Buoyed by our 3-2 (and very nearly 4-1) finish last year, we're ready to make some wild declarations once again. Here are 5 bold SEC football predictions for 2018:
1. No head coach will be fired, but one will come dangerously close
After last year's bloodletting resulting in five coaches losing their jobs (and a sixth jumping from one SEC school to another), it only seems natural that there would be some stability in 2018.
A wild-card resides in Baton Rouge, where Ed Orgeron inexplicably guided LSU to a 9-4 finish a year ago. Orgeron's second full year might be when the wheels run off, however.
LSU's defense should be very good, but scoring enough points might be a challenge. The Tigers changed offensive coordinators for no good reason, handing the reins back to Steve Ensminger, whose previous dalliances as a coordinator haven't necessarily gone well.
Add in a potentially killer schedule that adds games with Miami and Georgia this year, along with annual bloodbaths against Alabama, Florida and Auburn, and the Tigers might be staring at 6-6. One bad game against one of the SEC West also-rans could spell doom for Coach O.
Also keep an eye on fifth-year Vanderbilt head coach Derek Mason, who might be on the hot seat (if there is such a thing at Vandy) following a 1-7 finish in the league last season. The rest of the SEC East is getting better around the Commodores, and it's difficult to see them winning more than
six games even in a good year.
2. South Carolina will finish second in the SEC East
Instability at Tennessee and Florida could be a boon for the Gamecocks, who have exceeded expectations two years in a row now under Will Muschamp.
South Carolina returns perhaps the SEC's most-underrated quarterback in rising junior Jake Bentley, and gets all-purpose dynamo Deebo Samuel back after a year lost mostly to injury. Bryan McClendon taking over for long-time Muschamp aide Kurt Roper at offensive coordinator might be an upgrade as well.
Keys for the Gamecocks include rebuilding their offensive line (which wasn't all that great last year to begin with) and identifying more playmakers on defense. A three-game stretch in October-November -- home for Tennessee, then at Ole Miss and at Florida -- will tell the tale for South Carolina.
3. The most successful first-year coach will reside in Starkville
There are five new coaches in the SEC this year -- six if you count Matt Luke becoming the full-time guy at Ole Miss, but none inherited a better situation than Mississippi State's Joe Moorhead.
The former Penn State offensive coordinator (and one-time Fordham head coach) takes over a team with 19 returning starters, including a potential All-American in defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons and a dynamic quarterback in Nick Fitzgerald. A schedule that includes home games against Auburn, Florida, Texas A&M and Arkansas is also manageable.
Given his lack of familiarity with the Southeast, Moorhead might have challenges as a recruiter going forward, but the team he'll put on the field in 2018 shouldn't have much trouble winning eight or nine games. First-year coaches at Arkansas, Texas A&M, Tennessee and Florida aren't quite as well set up for immediate success.
4. Auburn's latest 1,000-yard rusher won't be who everyone thinks
Like clockwork, Auburn has had a 1,000-yard rusher every season dating to 2009. But the last two years at least, it's been a different person than the projected starter going into the fall.
In 2016, Kamryn Pettway took over following the August dismissal of Jovon Robinson, and rushed for 1,224 yards. Last season, it was Kerryon Johnson who topped the 1,000 mark (1,391 actually, with an SEC-best 20 total touchdowns) after Pettway was injured early in the year.
Coming out of spring, Kam Martin looks like the heir apparent, having averaged 6.6 yards per carry in reserve duty the last two years. However, at 5-foot-10 and 182 pounds, Martin isn't really build for the rigors of an SEC schedule.
Instead, look for redshirt freshman JaTarvious "Boobee" Whitlow -- who is 6-foot, 210 -- to be the Tigers' bell cow in 2018.
5. Two teams will go undefeated in the regular season
The preseason Las Vegas odds place Alabama's over-under at 10.5 wins, which seems like easy money. The Crimson Tide hasn't won fewer than 11 regular season games since 2010.
In 2018, Alabama isn't likely to even be challenged before November, and might be a three-touchdown favorite in every game prior to the Iron Bowl. That's plenty of time for the Crimson Tide's re-tooled defensive secondary to gain its footing, while the Tua Tagovailoa-led offense might be among the best in school history.
With the Auburn game in Tuscaloosa, I'm calling for Alabama to go undefeated in the regular season. Joining the Tide in the SEC championship game will be another 12-0 team -- Georgia.
The Bulldogs lost a lot of talent from last season's SEC championship team -- particularly on defense. However, back-to-back Top 5 recruiting classes will show up this year. Georgia is likely to be favored in every game this season, and gets Auburn and Georgia Tech at home in November.
Creg Stephenson | cstephenson@al.com
AL.com All-Access: 5 bold SEC football predictions for 2018
