I don't think you're terribly off on the Mizzou point total. I do believe you are off on Bama's. The numbers that I look through don't support a Mizzou win nor their defense being able to hold Bama to 17.
Personally, I am seeing Bama to be the better team by
two touchdowns on a neutral field. Here, in CoMo this weekend, with HFA?
34-21 vibes.
The running game is about the only statistical advantage you'll find that favors Mizzou ... all that's better left for the
"Looking ahead" thread.