🏈 AJC.com: Can Saban manage expectations

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Tuscaloosa, Ala.—To Alabama football fans, it was a disaster. To the Alabama football players, it was an anti-climatic and desperately disappointing way to end a season. For Nick Saban, however, it was a teachable moment.
It was the 31-17 loss to Utah in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 2. Less than a month before Alabama had been 12-0, ranked No. 1, and in position to win its 13th national championship. After losing to Florida (31-20), the eventual national champion, in one of the best SEC championship games ever played, Alabama was less than inspired to be playing in the Sugar Bowl. Utah, however, was very excited about being there and their play on the field reflected that.
After the game, Saban had a stern lesson for his players.
“I told them it (the loss) showed what we can do when we are focused and play together. We did that 13 times last season. We didn’t beat Florida but it was a great game and we were certainly in a position to win it,” Saban said when I met with him in his office on Thursday. “But it also showed what would happen if we did lose focus and weren’t mentally ready to play at a high level. Utah was a good team and we did not play at the level we had in those other 13 games.”
Alabama lost its best offensive lineman, left tackle Andre Smith, who was suspended before the Sugar Bowl. Saban said the loss of Smith, while important, has been overstated when analyzing the loss to Utah.
“It shouldn’t have affected the way the other 21 guys played,” he said.
Here’s the reality. Alabama was a very good football team in 2008 that got the most out of its talent. But this wasn’t Alabama of 1992 with Eric Curry, John Copeland, George Teague and a ton of great, great players. When Alabama of 2008 could stick to its power running game behind that great offensive line and play with passion on defense, it could beat anybody and did for 12 straight weeks. But Florida and Utah were able to spread out the defense and all but neutralize NT Terrence Cody.
So Saban has spent a good part of his spring lecturing to his players about managing expectations based on past performance.
“We seem to have an attitude around here that we deserve some level of success based on what we did the year before,” said Saban. “Those kinds of expectations can be destructive. At this level of football nothing is guaranteed. You only get what you are willing to work for.”
Saban is also taking this message of managing expectations to the Alabama booster clubs he will visit this spring. After coming so close last season, a lot fans believe that in 2009 Alabama will take the next logical step and contend for the national championship. But rarely does the building curve of a football program go straight up. It seems he has been in Alabama forever but in reality, this is the third year under Saban.
“I’ve told them that we want to have standards but if the standard is up here (at 12-0) do people lose interest if we don’t meet that standard? We have the best fans in the word but that kind of attitude can be very destructive,” he said.
Is Saban trying to preemptively manage expectations for his 2009 team? Of course he is. Alabama will be in everybody’s preseason Top 10 based on last season’s 12-0 start and the fact that nine starters return on defense. The schedule is set up for success. After opening the season in Atlanta against ACC champ Virginia Tech, the non-conference schedule is FIU, North Texas, and Tennessee-Chattanooga. Georgia goes off the schedule and South Carolina comes on. The LSU game is in Tuscaloosa. The toughest road trip is to Ole Miss on Oct. 10.
But Saban can see the potential land mines every day at practice: Alabama has to replace three new starters on the offensive line, including the Outland Trophy winner (Andre Smith) and center Antoine Caldwell, a great warrior had 49 career starts. There will be a new quarterback in Greg McElroy, a smart kid who will do the right thing but won’t overwhelm anybody with his talent. The defense has two of the best linebackers on the planet (Rolando McClain and Dont’a Hightower) but is dangerously thin at the position after that. They don’t have a great pass rusher unless they take Hightower from his linebacker position from time to time. There is no way to replace the intangibles that FS Rashad Johnson brought to the defense.
Will Saban be successful in managing the expectations of his fans for 2009? Not a chance. That genie never stays in the bottle for very long.