| FTBL According to the NCAA, Duke is a "Brutal" game.

[252BAMA]

10. Notre Dame

Get ready for a slightly down year for the Irish. That trip to Georgia seems destined to end in a loss. And then there are brutal games at Michigan, Duke and Stanford. Seems like 9-3 is the end result. But there won't be a collapse.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/a...25-2019-season

 

[TerryP]

Brad Powers would put the line at ND -16./-17 which would also match what we could assume a line from ESPN's PI would give as well. Last season Duke carried a 3.33 home field advantage to start the season; So, right now, we're looking at -13/-14 at kick.

Crazy note about Duke. Since '08 there are only five teams that have done better ATS than Duke (covering 59% of the time.) In a crazier note, one of those five is Arkansas. To top that, Arkansas State's another making it a friendly state for wagering, eh?

(BTW I'm thinking it was you that was in a conversation recently where Louisville came up and I mention how low their HFA is. I didn't have the database available when I posted that. Going into '18, 'Ville carried a 1.4 HFA. It's not the worst; eight place above the worst still isn't a good place to be.)

 

[JoseyWalesTheOutlaw]

David will have a nice scheme for The King. He will test our LBers with screens and drag the receiver/TE's behind the LBers testing their ability to read and do their jobs. If #13 and his buddies can score some points early in the game so we play from ahead then Cut's job will much more difficult. We'll see.

 

[TerryP]

Correct me if i'm wrong, but wasn't Cut one of the coaches on the alternate ESPN broadcast when Bama won the NC ... against Georgia or Clemson, I can't recall which. I do seem to recall Cut appearing to have a coronary with some of the big plays Bama had that night.

He may be as "eaten up by Bama" as SOS has become.

 

[JoseyWalesTheOutlaw]

Correct me if i'm wrong, but wasn't Cut one of the coaches on the alternate ESPN broadcast when Bama won the NC ... against Georgia or Clemson, I can't recall which. I do seem to recall Cut appearing to have a coronary with some of the big plays Bama had that night.

He may be as "eaten up by Bama" as SOS has become.

He was in that group for the UGA game....the look on his face with #13 hit the TD was priceless...

 

[50+yeartidefan]

Yep

David will have a nice scheme for The King. He will test our LBers with screens and drag the receiver/TE's behind the LBers testing their ability to read and do their jobs. If #13 and his buddies can score some points early in the game so we play from ahead then Cut's job will much more difficult. We'll see.

jose. It will be a massacre
Duke will try and slow game down to limit possessions for bama. But in the end.
Bama will look like bama and duke....well...duke

 

[JoseyWalesTheOutlaw]

Yep

jose. It will be a massacre
Duke will try and slow game down to limit possessions for bama. But in the end.
Bama will look like bama and duke....well...duke

You're playing well again today...

Old man look at my life
I'm a lot like you were
Old man look at my life
I'm a lot like you were

 

[TerryP]

Duke will try and slow game down to limit possessions for bama.

How do you come by that opinion?

 

[50+yeartidefan]

How do you come by that opinion?

Visions from above.....

 

[TUSKtimes]

Visions from above.....

Apparently, Vegas shares your vision.

 

[252BAMA]

Apparently, Vegas shares your vision.

Strange they have the spread at 33 and the O/U at 60 1/2. If Duke scores 27 or 28 points, it's going to be a long season.

 

[TerryP]

Visions from above.....

Peyote? How high were you?

Duke will try and slow game down to limit possessions for bama.

Strange they have the spread at 33 and the O/U at 60 1/2. If Duke scores 27 or 28 points, it's going to be a long season.

Apparently, Vegas shares your vision.

There's a good example of why the bookmakers don't feel Duke will try to slow it down. Quite frankly, I've only seen 50+ suggest that. It doesn't fit with their games against teams like Clemson, they were throwing the ball two of three snaps.

 

[50+yeartidefan]

Strange they have the spread at 33 and the O/U at 60 1/2. If Duke scores 27 or 28 points, it's going to be a long season.

That is strange. Take bama - points. Take under of 60
I have great confidence that our D will be back to standard. And we will see a couple different bama QBs in second half maybe even 3

Peyote? How high were you?




There's a good example of why the bookmakers don't feel Duke will try to slow it down. Quite frankly, I've only seen 50+ suggest that. It doesn't fit with their games against teams like Clemson, they were throwing the ball two of three snaps.

and how did that work out for the Dukies...???

 

[252BAMA]

Peyote? How high were you?




There's a good example of why the bookmakers don't feel Duke will try to slow it down. Quite frankly, I've only seen 50+ suggest that. It doesn't fit with their games against teams like Clemson, they were throwing the ball two of three snaps.

Or it could mean they think Bama is going to win 50-10, and they aren't about to set the spread at -40.

 

[TerryP]

and how did that work out for the Dukies...???

I'm aware. It still gives me no reason to think Cut is going to try to take the air out of the ball.

The ONLY way I see Duke trying to slow down the game is because their quarterback transition fails miserably in fall camp. That said, betting against Cut and QB development? There is little value there.

Or it could mean they think Bama is going to win 50-10, and they aren't about to set the spread at -40.

Speaking of value ...

You're thinking along the same lines as I was when I read over this thread yesterday. I certainly don't believe they are looking at this game as a 63-29 win (covering both.) I don't believe it's a "sucker bet" as well. Personally, the value I see today is on the under but there's a few things that come into play. As example, how many true freshman will we see with the new four game rule in place? It's my view Saban will be looking for consistency from the back-ups late in the game which would allow Duke a few points that are meaningless.

(On a side note, one of the game storylines should be the Duke defense. They return a lot in their back seven but have question marks in the front four. Little pash rush is expected leaving me wondering if they can defend the running game. It leads me to also consider we may be looking at Bama running (versus the normal wide open attack) as they seek cohesiveness along the offensive line.)

 

[252BAMA]

I'm aware. It still gives me no reason to think Cut is going to try to take the air out of the ball.

The ONLY way I see Duke trying to slow down the game is because their quarterback transition fails miserably in fall camp. That said, betting against Cut and QB development? There is little value there.



Speaking of value ...

You're thinking along the same lines as I was when I read over this thread yesterday. I certainly don't believe they are looking at this game as a 63-29 win (covering both.) I don't believe it's a "sucker bet" as well. Personally, the value I see today is on the under but there's a few things that come into play. As example, how many true freshman will we see with the new four game rule in place? It's my view Saban will be looking for consistency from the back-ups late in the game which would allow Duke a few points that are meaningless.

(On a side note, one of the game storylines should be the Duke defense. They return a lot in their back seven but have question marks in the front four. Little pash rush is expected leaving me wondering if they can defend the running game. It leads me to also consider we may be looking at Bama running (versus the normal wide open attack) as they seek cohesiveness along the offensive line.)

Good point about the true freshmen, although I can see the four game rule viewed as a half glass of water. Could be looked at as half full or half empty. IOW, hold them back because they aren't needed against a weak opponent. Or play them against a weak opponent to see if they can help. Mindset being if they can't help against a weaker opponent, they aren't going to be useful against a stronger one.

I am certainly in hopes that the run will be used more which would possibly keep the score down. But my reason is for it to set up the play-action pass. I have been extremely disappointed the past two seasons in the lack of use of the play-action. Too many times I have thought, after two or three consecutive runs, that play-action would produce a TD. Only to see them go into a damn shotgun formation.

 

[TerryP]

Good point about the true freshmen, although I can see the four game rule viewed as a half glass of water.

Just looking at the opener last year the majority of the 2's snaps came in the linebacking corps. That's where Petrino took his shots and where I expect Cut to as well. Not a whole lot in the secondary: 2-1 for starters to 2's and it was less than that on the line.