🏈 A different kind of preseason poll

[musso]

In the spirit of trying something out-of-the-box, I’m asking who among the preseason top ten can you confidently predict will NOT win the National Championship.

The reason why I think this question is interesting is we used to confidently say every preseason that only a few teams were favorites to win it all: Bama, Ohio St, Clemson, Georgia, etc. But now that talent is being distributed around more, and depth is thinner on even the most talented rosters, I think more teams have legitimate opportunities. These days I look at the top ten and find myself thinking, “Who doesn’t have a real chance to win it all?” So I’m curious, are there any preseason top ten teams on which you can bet your pride that won’t be holding the trophy up at the end of the season?

 

[Justneedme81]

Everyone but Alabama.

 

[Brandon Van de Graaff]

Miami.

 

[50+yeartidefan]

I started with ...who will get in cfps..
Looking at schedules...team...
Who is in cfp
Texas. 9-3
Uga. 11-1
Alabama 12-0
Lsu 9-3
Osu 11-1
Psu 10-2
Clemson 11-1
Oregon 11-1
Miami 10-2
Nd 10-2

So. Lsu @9-3...texas @9-3....
Or
Miami...@10-2....

Going with lsu doesnt get in

 

[Justneedme81]

I started with ...who will get in cfps..
Looking at schedules...team...
Who is in cfp
Texas. 9-3
Uga. 11-1
Alabama 12-0
Lsu 9-3
Osu 11-1
Psu 10-2
Clemson 11-1
Oregon 11-1
Miami 10-2
Nd 10-2

So. Lsu @9-3...texas @9-3....
Or
Miami...@10-2....

Going with lsu doesnt get in

Anyone with three losses in SEC ain't getting in.

 

[musso]

(a) We know the media needs topics worthy of debate and discussion to attract viewers and sell ads. Heck I remember Herbstreit used to openly complain that the same teams kept making the playoffs every season.

(b) So the portal and NIL have helped the media as much as it has helped players.

(c) But we are still early in this new era, and there might be a tendency, whether deliberate or accidental, for the media to overstate the existing parity. So I think there will still remain a certain amount of undeserved hype around some teams.

(d) So I think this kind of question will only be interesting for a few seasons because I believe we are soon headed to a world where predicting the college national champion will be no easier than predicting the Super Bowl champion. Soon it will be unreasonable to discount any preseason top ten team.

 

[alabama mike]

The Catholic college in Indiana will not win.

 

[50+yeartidefan]

Anyone with three losses in SEC ain't getting in.

I think they could. According to losses and schedule. Bama was close last year
A great game by smu killed them.

 

[BamaFan334]

Anyone with three losses in SEC ain't getting in.

I'm not so certain about that after SMU and Indiana last year. I think the SEC gets the benefit of the doubt, because Ole Miss and Alabama would have put up better games. SMU more than Indiana, but Indiana's SOS and even SOR had to be challenged compared to Ole Miss or Alabama's.

 

[musso]

If my math is correct, there’s an average, so far, of 4 teams per voter. This is another way of saying each voter thinks roughly 6 teams (notwithstanding any teams outside the preseason top 10) have a decent chance at winning the Natty. I suppose you can throw this out if any of you did what @Justneedme81 joked about and voted for everyone except Bama, haha. But I think it’s interesting to see the evolution. Most of us a decade or more ago would have said only 2-3 teams had realistic chance at winning the Natty.

 

[Justneedme81]

If my math is correct, there’s an average, so far, of 4 teams per voter. This is another way of saying each voter thinks roughly 6 teams (notwithstanding any teams outside the preseason top 10) have a decent chance at winning the Natty. I suppose you can throw this out if any of you did what @Justneedme81 joked about and voted for everyone except Bama, haha. But I think it’s interesting to see the evolution. Most of us a decade or more ago would have said only 2-3 teams had realistic chance at winning the Natty.

Let me be serious and change my votes.

 

[musso]

Let me be serious and change my votes.

Now it’s down to an average of only 3.3 votes per participant. It’s tough to rule anyone out, hence maybe the powers-that-be know what they are doing.

 

[Brandon Van de Graaff]

Now it’s down to an average of only 3.3 votes per participant. It’s tough to rule anyone out, hence maybe the powers-that-be know what they are doing.

All else being the same, I'd love to know what Bama's odds would be if Saban was still there. My guess, about what we see with Texas and Ohio State.

 

[Krimson]

Now it’s down to an average of only 3.3 votes per participant. It’s tough to rule anyone out, hence maybe the powers-that-be know what they are doing.

They do know what they're doing, they got sick of Bama and Georgia beating everyone so they brought along NIL and the no rules transfer portal to kill what good, hardworking, dedicated coaches built and made it so everyone could buy players and not have to work so damn hard. Just wasn't fair to everyone else the way it was.

 

[musso]

They do know what they're doing, they got sick of Bama and Georgia beating everyone so they brought along NIL and the no rules transfer portal to kill what good, hardworking, dedicated coaches built and made it so everyone could buy players and not have to work so damn hard. Just wasn't fair to everyone else the way it was.

 

[TerryP]

 

[TerryP]

 

[OldPlayer]

I’m trying to finish 2025

 

[TerryP]

I’m trying to finish 2025

Ok, I'll bite. And?

 

[OldPlayer]

Ok, I'll bite. And?

Don’t make me pick 2026 until 2025 is over. Things I don’t know:

• Which players are transferring where?
• Who is coaching where (a lot of teams need to fill their coaching staffs)?
• Which high profile players from 2025 are staying for 2026 and which ones are declaring for the NFL?
• How are the schedules laid out? (SEC schedules announced 12/11)
• Which freshman have a chance to contribute? (they aren’t even in school yet)