🏈 9/15/2012- UA vs UArk: Even with Petrino, Bama would have won. But now? I'd take Bama -9, maybe mo

[TerryP]

I'd have to go back and look when I made my first comments about Arkansas last year. I know I called the win, and I know I said it was because of their offensive line versus our rush and how we'd end up killing Tyler Wilson.

He lived. Of course, he was "pulled" as well.

Even before Petrino was fired I felt Bama would win this ball game. Again, it in came to our front seven and how I felt Arkansas wouldn't be able to deal with those athletes for 60 minutes. I had Bama winning by double digits, but less than two TD's.

Now, I feel more comfortable than ever about this game. And setting aside everything else about the game, this game has already been won: in February.

What do I mean?

Arkansas hasn't been known for its recruiting. They have been in the mid-30's, ranking wise, for years. Petrino was a wild card though. He very rarely lost to teams that he had out-recruited (4X) and often beat teams he who had better recruiting classes than he pulled in (11X.)

Petrino gave them that edge. He could coach a team up for a game day performance.

JL Smith? If you look back over his career as a HC you'll seldom see him take a lesser talented bunch and beat a team considered to be better. In fact, it happened one time, his first year, at Michigan State. After that? If he ran into a team whose recruiting classes were ranked higher? Loss, after loss, after loss, after...

You get the picture?

FWIW, I like JLS. I think, if hired at Bama, he'd make a hell of an assistant coach.

You've seen some of these words before...

Even though this game is in Fayetteville, and even though this team has players seemingly as talented as their peers in the SEC, this one could get U.G.L.Y.

 

[TerryP]

Adding a bit...

I wouldn't be shocked—and right now this is where I have them finishing—if they end up 9-3.

I wouldn't be shocked if they end up in Shreveport, Nashville, or maybe get a break and get to ATL: not in the first week of December, mind you.

If it gets ugly against us, in their house, Rutgers might put a start in them the following weekend. A visit to A&M, followed by another visit to Auburn...

I can see a record of .500, or a game over .500, at the mid-point of the season.

 

[shipley00]

On the minus side for Arkansas, they lose their top two receivers who combined for 110 receptions and over 1750 yards. On the plus side, they have 3 upcoming Seniors that got significant receptions and PT. They also get Knile Davis back. On offense, they should loaded with talent, but it's ultimately what you do with that talent. Just ask Mack Brown.

 

[psychojoe]

I agree with the "it could get ugly" description. There defense last year was the best its been in a while. Not as good as ours, or LSU, probably MSU, but pretty good. But they lost their best DL, two good players at LB, and a couple in their secondary. They lost playmakers at WR as well. Defense: not as good as last year. Offense: I have enormous respect for Tyler Wilson, but I don't believe they will be as good on O either.

 

[TerryP]

On the minus side for Arkansas, they lose their top two receivers who combined for 110 receptions and over 1750 yards. On the plus side, they have 3 upcoming Seniors that got significant receptions and PT. They also get Knile Davis back. On offense, they should loaded with talent, but it's ultimately what you do with that talent. Just ask Mack Brown.

Who've also lost their play caller.

I know, here's where the name Paul Petrino's name comes in?

Might want to look at that Illini program more closely.

 

[TerryP]

BTW, when Petrino left Louisville the new HC, along with the new AD, talked about how many players ended up leaving soon after and how many ended up being kicked out.

What's the real state of Arkansas?

 

[psychojoe]

Terry, I remember that article on the Ville cleaning up behind him. I'll try to find it. My memory tells me that the total number was over 30 between leaving voluntarily, flunking out and getting booted. It was ugly.

 

[TheChief]

I agree with the "it could get ugly" description. There defense last year was the best its been in a while. Not as good as ours, or LSU, probably MSU, but pretty good. But they lost their best DL, two good players at LB, and a couple in their secondary. They lost playmakers at WR as well. Defense: not as good as last year. Offense: I have enormous respect for Tyler Wilson, but I don't believe they will be as good on O either.

I hope you know how much I respect your opinions and posts (and I tend to agree with this post - due to what Terry speaks of), BUT I don't think players lost is always a good barometer.

They lost four first round draft picks; there is no way they are nearly as good as last year.

See? It doesn't hold water.

 

[psychojoe]

I hope you know how much I respect your opinions and posts (and I tend to agree with this post - due to what Terry speaks of), BUT I don't think players lost is always a good barometer.

They lost four first round draft picks; there is no way they are nearly as good as last year.

See? It doesn't hold water.

I understand what you are saying. I should have fleshed out my post. As Terry noted in his post, the Hogs are not a recruiting powerhouse, and usually their best recruits are on the offe4nsive side of the ball, with an emphasis on skill positions. They are losing several multiyear starters on defense, their defensive depth was suspect anyway, and the reinforcements won't be up to speed for a while, certainly not SEC ready when we play them. I will stand by my conclusion regarding their D.

I appreciate the tactful way that you told me that I had not supported my conclusion.

I will backtrack a little on their offense. With Adams and Childs gone, there is no way that they will be as explosive as they were a year ago. Yes, I know Hamilton is a terrific player. Assuming Knile Davis is healthy they will have a better running game, but I don't expect them to be lighting up the scoreboard like they did last year.

 

[TerryP]

If you have the time and want to venture out on some more...

Look at the two new hires on defense and tell me about the success they've had with defense.

I'm telling ya'! I see more and more that leads me to believe it's going to be a meltdown.

 

[BCSBuster]

What do you think about the Alabama/Michigan spread? Last I saw, it was Crimson -10.5. I pointed it out on another message board, but the number seems fair, considering it should get the close to an equal amount of action on both sides.

Still like Alabama will win by more, maybe 13-14.

 

[Lance]

i would guess it would stay around 10 unless there is some sort of injury going into the game