🏈 252's Underdog Lock of the Week Five

[252BAMA]

Going to go with Coastal Carolina (+3 1/2) this week. Hosting Arkansas State in what, IMO, should be a Pickem game, if not Coastal Carolina a favorite because of HFA.

ESPN SP+ Ranking has ASU at #64 and CCU at #65. Hate to go against Layne Hatcher, but this might be the week the old adage "if you have 2QBs, you don't have any" comes into play against ASU.

 

[TerryP]

I believe I read they are allowing 5000 fans to attend.

After playing at Kansas State and at Memphis I don't see HFA being that significant (other than sleeping in familiar surroundings which is definitely a plus.)

 

[252BAMA]

As you have pointed out many times, HFA is not a blanket 3 points. However, it does mean something even if only the same .25 that decided the only criteria that CCU lost on this simulator.

	Coastal Carolina | Chanticleers	Arkansas State | Red Wolves
Offense VS Defense	414​	+1​	406​	​
Passing Off VS Def	241​	+1​	239​	​
Rushing Off VS Def	173​	+1​	167​	​
Scoring Off VS Def	37.5​	+1​	26​	​
Turnovers Off VS Def	0.25​	+1​	2.25​	​
3rd Conv Off VS Def	47.85​	​	48.1​	+1​
Totals	5​	1​

Coastal Carolina WINS

 

[252BAMA]

Or the .3 difference in ESPN's SP+ ranking. As said in the OP, to me this is a pickem game, with a slight advantage to the home team.

64. Arkansas St. (1-1)	-5.8	32.5 (22)	38.2 (85)	-0.2 (46)
65. Coastal Caro. (2-0)	-6.1	28.1 (46)	34.2 (79)	0.0 (18)

 

[252BAMA]

52-23